Putin was wrong about everything. But so were U.S. right-wingers.

Putin was wrong about everything. But so were U.S. right-wingers.

Jennifer Rubin — Read time: 4 minutes

Yesterday at 7:45 a.m. EST

Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to U.S. intelligence officials, is surprised and frustrated, and is becoming increasingly dangerous as his war against democratic Ukraine threatens to decimate Putin’s own country.

At a House Intelligence Committee hearing on Tuesday, CIA director William J. Burns testified that Putin “was confident that he had modernized his military and they were capable of quick, decisive victory at minimal cost. He’s been proven wrong on every count. Those assumptions have proven to be profoundly flawed over the last 12 days of conflict.” Contrary to pundits’ prognostication that Russia will eventually “win,” Burns explained that Putin will not achieve victory according to the goals the Russian leader set out — namely occupying major cities, thoroughly subduing Ukrainians and removing their president. “I fail to see how he can produce that kind of an endgame.”

It’s fair to ask how Putin came to launch a war that now threatens to wreck his regime. Dictators surround themselves with yes-men who, out of self-preservation, do not tell him things that contradict his worldview. The West won’t act. Ukraine isn’t a real country. Having chosen military leaders for their loyalty instead of competence, with this invasion, Putin has revealed his military to be far less menacing than other powers suspected. Now, the whole world knows: His forces lack morale, training, logistical competence and capable leadership.

Putin thought many Ukrainians would welcome the Russians as “liberators.” Wrong. He no doubt expected the West to put on only superficial sanctions. Wrong again. And, perhaps most devastating for the future of his regime and the Russian economy, the one economic lifeline — energy — is now threatened. Putin imagined the United States and Europe would be unwilling to sacrifice their supply of Russian oil. Wrong once more.

The United States and, by year’s end, Britain will stop importing. Europe vows to shrink its oil imports by two-thirds. Finding buyers to make up those sales will not be easy. As the New York Times reports, “The Russian oil industry ... is likely to experience a wrenching reworking about how it does business in the coming weeks, months and even years. In the short term, this painful reckoning will come not so much because blue-chip oil companies are leaving, but because Russian oil and gas have suddenly become toxic to many buyers.”

You're following Jennifer Rubin‘s opinionsFollowing

The common thread running through all of Putin’s miscalculations was a complete lack of understanding of Ukrainians’ patriotism and thirst for freedom, and of the power of democratic public opinion.

While much time and focus is spent on trying to puzzle out what Putin is thinking (and whether he’s nuts), what’s obvious is that he understands virtually nothing about the West — not the public’s capacity for moral revulsion; not the public’s ability to force stronger action from governments and to force private businesses out of Russia; not the solidarity of Western democracies; and not the spirit of the Ukrainian people and the effectiveness of President Volodymyr Zelensky, who’s become a master at public diplomacy and information warfare.

And Putin vastly underestimated President Biden, who unlike the three presidents who preceded him, prepared virtually his whole life for the sort of international diplomacy required to defend Ukraine.

Candidly, few in the West expected this sort of international response either. But Biden’s optimism proved more realistic than the cynics. As Biden said during his recent State of the Union address: “In the battle between democracy and autocracies, democracies are rising to the moment, and the world is clearly choosing the side of peace and security.”

Authoritarian wannabes in the United States who admire foreign autocrats get conned — just like Putin — into thinking illiberal societies have advantages over liberal ones. They imagine autocracies are stronger, more focused and better able to command their people. In their hero worship for bullies and their contempt for our own democracy, right-wingers fail to grasp that democracies are stronger because of their free citizenries, the free flow of information and their more nimble free-market economies.

Biden had it right: “The state of the Union is strong because you, the American people, are strong.” Ironically, it took an unprecedented miscalculation by one of the world’s most vicious thugs to remind us of our own strengths, and to show that neither Putin nor his U.S. admirers have a clue about what makes America great.

War in Ukraine: What you need to know

The latest: The Biden administration announced plans to ban oil imports from Russia, as White House looks to buffer economy. Meanwhile, more than 2 million people have fled Ukraine since the start of the invasion.

Oil exports: Russia is the world’s largest oil exporter, sending more than 7 million barrels of crude oil to countries around the world, including to Germany and other E.U. members.

The fight: Casualties are mounting in Ukraine — including civilians, while Moscow is facing allegations that it has used cluster and vacuum weapons. As many as 4,000 Russian soldiers may have died, according to a U.S. general.

Map: Russia’s assault on Ukraine has been extensive with strikes and attacks across the entire country.

The response: Russia’s war could be a global economic “game changer,” with rising gas prices and shifting trade decisions suggesting change that will be felt for years. Meanwhile, in Russia, online access has been significantly curtailed by censors at home and businesses abroad.

How you can help: Here are ways those in the U.S. can help support the Ukrainian people as well as what people around the world have been donating.

Read our full coverage of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.