Saturday, October 31, 2020

Trump just made Biden’s closing argument for him

Trump just made Biden’s closing argument for him

Opinion by Dana Milbank, Columnist

Oct. 31, 2020 at 6:23 a.m. GMT+9


“Covid, covid, covid, covid, covid, covid,” he said in North Carolina.


“Covid, covid, covid, covid, covid, covid, covid, covid, covid, covid!” he railed in Michigan


It was as presidential as Jan Brady crying “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia.”


Trump was doubling down — actually, tripling, quadrupling, sextupling and decupling down — on the very thing costing him the election: his incompetent and inhumane handling of the greatest mass trauma in living memory for the vast majority of Americans.


His callous disregard for at least 228,000 Americans dead from the virus (they apparently ignored him when he said, “Don’t let it dominate your life”) and the millions out of work.

His ridicule of the media, Democrats and the public for paying attention to the pandemic at a time when a record number of Americans (nearly 90,000 Thursday) are getting infected, and 1,000 are dying, daily. “It is what it is.”

His incessant lies about “rounding the corner” on the virus, which is “ending,” even as cases rise in 42 states and overwhelmed hospitals consider rationing.

His let-them-eat-cake attitude that Americans shouldn’t fear the virus, when he had a squadron of top doctors spending a fortune in taxpayer money to give him advanced and experimental treatments nobody else can get.

His contempt for science and masks, his rushed reopening, and his crackpot remedies that led to worst-in-the-world fatalities in the United States.

Trump is unfit for the office he holds, and it was good of him to encapsulate so succinctly why he must be replaced with a leader of competence and compassion: Covid, covid, covid!


We needn’t look back over the past four years — joblessness, debt, racial strife and international disdain — to see why Trump is unfit. We need only look back at the past two weeks.


He returned to calling immigrants “rapists” and “murderers” and referred to “Barack Hussein Obama.”

He mockingly mispronounced Kamala Harris’s name and used the racist trope of labeling the African American Democratic vice-presidential nominee “angry.”

His senior adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, proposed that Black Americans don’t “want to be successful.”

Trump’s campaign, after a rally in frigid Omaha, stranded supporters for hours, landing some in the hospital.

Judge-appointed lawyers said they couldn’t find the parents of 545 migrant children the Trump administration separated from their parents.

Trump embraced a “lock her up” chant directed at the Michigan governor, target of a kidnapping plot.

Covid-19 relief talks collapsed after the Senate Republican leader told the White House not to make a deal.

A federal judge struck down Trump’s plan to slash food stamps for 700,000 unemployed Americans.

Stocks plunged, suffering their worst week and month since March as pandemic fears outweighed strong third-quarter growth.

Trump opened 9.3 million pristine acres of rainforest in Alaska to logging and development.

A Trump political appointee resigned in protest because a new presidential order destroys the integrity of the civil service.

Trump promoted dubious allegations against Biden that news outlets, including the Wall Street Journal and Fox News, said could not be corroborated by the evidence.

Trump told women in Michigan that “we’re getting your husbands back to work.”

And he tried, unsuccessfully, to get Israel’s prime minister to join him in ridiculing “Sleepy Joe.”

Meanwhile, news broke that:


Trump’s administration ousted the top scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration after he reminded Trump appointees not to manipulate scientific findings.

The U.S. Postal Service’s on-time delivery dropped below 60 percent in swing states after a Trump ally sabotaged operations.

Trump’s businesses have received at least $8.1 million from taxpayers and supporters since he took office.

Creditors forgave some $270 million of his unpaid debts related to a Chicago building project a decade ago.

But leading the latest parade of horribles has been pandemic ineptitude: the White House issuing a report taking credit for “ending the covid-19 pandemic,” Trump’s claiming we’re “rounding the turn” even as his chief of staff says “we are not going to control the pandemic,” and Vice President Pence campaigning despite an outbreak among his staff.


The White House justified Pence’s recklessness by saying he “has the best doctors in the world around him.” The hell with those he might infect.


The millions who have lost friends and loved ones, lost jobs, lost a year of their lives in the unmet hope that the government would do its job? Go tell Biden. It’s just nuisance noise to Trump.


Covid, covid, covid.


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Thursday, October 29, 2020

Trump Is Encouraging a Lawless Election


Trump Is Encouraging a Lawless Election
by Jonathan Bernstein, bloomberg.com
October 29, 2020 06:36 AM

Laws schmaws.
Photo by: Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/AFP
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Donald Trump is not just a presidential candidate. He is president of the United States. And it’s his sworn responsibility to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed.” That’s why it’s not just bad behavior when he undermines the law. It’s a violation of his oath of office. And that includes his efforts to encourage others to disregard the law.

For example, here’s Trump on Wednesday:

We'll see what happens at the end of the day [on Election Day]. Hopefully it won't go longer than that. Hopefully the few states remaining that want to take a lot of time after November 3rd to count ballots, that won't be allowed by the various courts.

This isn’t anything new. He’s been saying for some time now that the election “must” produce results the night of Nov. 3, even though (as I said a while back) that’s ahistorical and antidemocratic. But now Trump is taking it a step further and explicitly saying that legal ballots, validly voted and received, should be discarded — contrary to the laws of every state and to any possible interpretation of legitimate elections — if they aren’t tabulated by his arbitrary new deadline.

To be clear: This isn’t about ballots arriving late, after a state deadline. It’s not even about what the state deadlines should be. It’s simply a claim that what Trump wants should take precedence over the law.

Never mind all the perfectly valid ballots that would be tossed in the trash, including those from active-duty military members casting absentee ballots. Or that Trump himself has opposed giving states aid to expedite their counts — and that Republican legislatures in Pennsylvania and elsewhere have set rules that make it impossible to complete such counts rapidly.

Nor is this the first example of the president’s lawlessness. Trump and his administration have trampled over statutes such as the Hatch Act and those mandating treatment of official documents. He has ignored the emoluments clauses of the Constitution. He has abused his power and obstructed justice on more than one occasion. His attitude about all of it is the same as his attitude toward taxes — that, as he explained during the debate last week, following the law is for losers. He simply ignores, and encourages others to ignore, the entire concept of neutral rules that everyone agrees to live by.

That Trump probably has no way to enforce his preferences is irrelevant. All of it is deeply corrosive to the republic and its institutions. And all of it demonstrates, one more time, how unfit he is for the office he holds.

1. Tom Pepinsky on public opinion about the integrity of the election.

2. Dan Drezner tries to grade Trump on his own terms. It doesn’t go well. 

3. Julia Azari on the next president’s mandate.

4. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Justin Fox on the GDP report.

5. Amy Walter’s latest look at the Electoral College map.

6. And David Graham on the media going easy on Trump’s scandals. There’s some truth to this. At the same time, though, it’s the pandemic that has soaked up a lot of media attention recently (as Trump whines about quite a bit), and that’s a topic that hurts the incumbent badly — probably worse than if there was more of a focus on his financial scandals or even the many accusations of sexual assault against him. 

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Timothy Lavin at tlavin1@bloomberg.net

Published on October 29, 2020, 7:36 AM EDT
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Joe Biden can’t unify the country. But he should keep saying he will.

Joe Biden can’t unify the country. But he should keep saying he will.

Joe Biden’s closing message to the American electorate is a vain hope, something we’d like to believe but know in our hearts is impossible. But he should keep saying it, because the alternative is worse.

Opinion by Paul Waldman

Oct. 29, 2020 at 1:53 a.m. GMT+9

“This is our opportunity to leave the dark, angry politics of the last four years behind us,” Biden says. “To choose hope over fear, unity over division, science over fiction. I believe it’s time to unite the country, to come together as a nation.”


If only it could be so.


Biden has been talking this way from the beginning of his campaign, expressing his faith that with the right leadership and commitment, America can unite in common purpose. He says this in reference to the broad divisions in the country, and also insists that collectively we are better than the moral squalor of the Trump era. He’ll note some specific outrage — President Trump separating children from their parents, or giving a shout-out to white supremacists — then say, “This is not who we are.”


The trouble is, it is who we are, or at least it’s who lots of us are. That was the whole theory behind Trump’s presidential candidacy in 2016: We are resentful, fearful and hateful, and we want someone who will not only give voice to those emotions but also give us permission to express them as loudly as possible.


In this Trump was the exception, not the rule; Biden’s promise of unity is notable now only because it contrasts so starkly with his opponent. Presidential candidates pledging to bring the country together is so common that before now it was just what we’ve come to expect.


It’s what Bill Clinton said 28 years ago in his convention speech:


For too long politicians have told the most of us that are doing all right that what’s really wrong with America is the rest of us. Them. Them, the minorities. Them, the liberals. Them, the poor. Them, the homeless. Them, the people with disabilities. Them, the gays. We’ve gotten to where we’ve nearly themed ourselves to death. Them and them and them. But this is America. There is no them; there’s only us.

Then eight years later, George W. Bush said in his convention speech that he could lead us out of the partisan morass:


I don’t have enemies to fight. I have no stake in the bitter arguments of the last few years. I want to change the tone of Washington to one of civility and respect.

Then eight years after that, Barack Obama insisted in his convention speech that we all shared a common patriotism and a common destiny:


The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a red America or a blue America — they have served the United States of America.

Every time, the people voting for those candidates thought they might deliver us to that gentler politics, and every time they were wrong.


Part of it was the partisan sorting that made both parties more ideologically and demographically different from each other with each passing year. And part of it was the decisions of individual actors. One thing the Obama years in particular demonstrated was that if one side seeks bipartisanship and the other side seeks division, the dividers win.


That was Mitch McConnell’s theory of opposition, one he wasn’t afraid to say out loud. While the Obama administration spent months trying to persuade Republicans to work with it on the Affordable Care Act, McConnell told the New York Times that denying Obama bipartisan support was his express goal.


“If the proponents of the bill were able to say it was bipartisan, it tended to convey to the public that this is O.K., they must have figured it out,” McConnell said. Withholding any and all Republican support would demonstrate to voters that Obama had failed as a unifier, which McConnell saw as necessary to Republicans retaking power.


And of course, then came Donald Trump, with his unfailing radar for what is worst in people and conviction that feeding it is the only route to his success.


Even if Biden beats him, the Trumpist style will pervade Republican politics for some time to come, as other ambitious politicians try to use it themselves. But there’s also a more substantive reason that unity will be so hard to achieve.


There may be times in the next four years when the parties agree on a piece of legislation or two, but on the most important issues there simply will be no common ground. That’s not only because Republicans will once again find political advantage in doing everything possible to make a President Biden fail, but also because the parties have profound differences about both ends and means.


Democrats want more people to have health insurance, especially through the government; Republicans want fewer people to have it. Democrats want to enhance workers’ rights; Republicans want to limit them. Democrats want to raise taxes on the wealthy; Republicans want to cut them. Democrats want to move aggressively to limit climate change; Republicans don’t. Democrats want to secure abortion rights; Republicans want to eliminate them.


These are not bridgeable gaps. There isn’t a compromise waiting to be found if everyone just rolls up their sleeves, uses their common sense and hashes things out. Which means that the policy fights will be intense, and one side will win while the other side loses.


Where does that leave someone like Biden, who sincerely wants to bring the country together? His only real choice is to keep saying it, even if he knows that he, too, will fail.


So many of us want to believe it’s possible, even if we know in our hearts it isn’t. More importantly, the president should keep telling us that we are one nation. Because the alternative is something like Trump, turning every disagreement into poison and encouraging strife, anger and ultimately perhaps violence.


The choice is not between unity and division. It’s between a division we will lament but tolerate, and one so intense it rips the country apart. If Biden can give us the former and help to keep us from the latter, it will be more than enough.


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Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Trump Can Still Win. But His Position Is Dire.

Trump Can Still Win. But His Position Is Dire.
by Jonathan Bernstein, bloomberg.com
October 28, 2020 06:55 AM

Beginning of the end?
Photo by: Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/AFP
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President Donald Trump’s chances of winning a second term continue to slip away.

With under a week to go, he’s still down about 9 percentage points nationally, and there’s little sign of any real movement in either direction. Early last week, I speculated that there was still enough time for significant changes to the race. That’s much less true now. With the debates over, it’s hard to imagine anything that would spark a shift of more than a percentage point or two. And not only is Trump is being badly outspent in the final days by former Vice President Joe Biden, the current spike in the coronavirus, an issue that plays very badly for the incumbent, is unlikely to help him as the few remaining undecided voters make up their minds.

As Nate Silver put it: “We’re sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).”

A Trump win is certainly not impossible. Silver’s model pegs the chances at about 12%, while the Economist model puts it at only about one in 20. The reason Trump still has any serious chance is because the Electoral College appears to be biased in favor of Republicans this year, as it was in 2016, and perhaps a little more so (FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 4% chance of winning the most votes; the Economist thinks it’s almost a lock that Biden will do so). At least, that’s the case if the state polls are correct. As we saw in 2016, final state polling averages are more likely to be wrong — that is, several percentage points off the actual results — than the national average. That’s not surprising. There may be two or three top-quality polls in the battleground states over the next few days, but there will be half a dozen or more good national ones, and plenty of other useful surveys as well.

Right now, Trump’s best bet appears to be holding every state he won last time except for Michigan and Wisconsin. To do so, he’d need to take Pennsylvania, where he currently trails by a bit more than 5 percentage points. That’s not impossible; I’d bet that the results will reveal a polling error of at least six points in more than one state. But that’s less likely to happen in heavily polled Pennsylvania. And if it’s just a one-state problem, then Trump is still sunk, because he’s currently losing (according to the New York Times averages) in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and perhaps Georgia. So what Trump needs is for the national polls to be off (in his favor), and for Pennsylvania to be even more off (in his favor) without those other states being off in Biden’s favor.

We could go through that same exercise, carefully counting where the electoral votes fall, with Wisconsin or Michigan. Or perhaps with Nevada or Minnesota, both of which Hillary Clinton won in 2016. But Biden’s polling lead is even larger in those states, and while it’s certainly possible that errors could still turn them for Trump, it’s increasingly unlikely.

How probable is a larger-than-usual polling error this time around? No one knows for sure. But if pollsters did know that there was a particular likely error, they’d correct for it. That’s why I’m fairly skeptical that looking at the errors of 2016 or 2018 will tell us much about this time around. The main thing making such mistakes more likely this year is the pandemic and the resulting changes in how people vote, with way more voters casting ballots early either absentee or in person. Also different this time? What appears to be an unusually high turnout. Perhaps all that will make it harder to correctly estimate the pool of likely voters, which could cause larger-than-usual errors. That could be worsened by problems with mail delivery or (additional) efforts by the Trump campaign to knock out absentee ballots. Or perhaps the current virus flare-up will discourage people who planned to vote in-person on Election Day.

On the other hand? It’s possible that the unusual stability in preferences over the course of this year makes polling easier than normal. Similarly, both high turnout and early voting could, if pollsters understand what’s happening correctly, make the numbers more accurate than usual. And one more time: Any errors, should they happen, could be in either direction. At this point, if the polls are accurate or if Biden does even a little better than they say, Trump is in very deep trouble.

Of course, this is all assuming that we have a normal and more-or-less honest election. Trump has repeatedly threatened otherwise, by (for example) saying that the final result must be tallied by Election Day, despite laws and centuries of practice mandating that many ballots be counted over the next several days, or longer if necessary. Most likely, local officials will ignore Trump’s bluster and the count will go on as usual. Accuracy and a full count of all legitimate votes, after all, are far more important than speed. And if we’re lucky, and one of the candidates wins by a solid margin, we might still learn who won the election late Tuesday night after all.

Monday, October 26, 2020

We Were Clerks at the Supreme Court. Its Legitimacy Is Now in Question.


We Were Clerks at the Supreme Court. Its Legitimacy Is Now in Question.
nytimes.com | October 25, 2020 10:00 AM
Brazen politics in Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation process threatens the court’s standing with the public.

Mr. Crooks and Mr. Deger-Sen are lawyers.


Photo by: ...Samuel Corum/Getty Images
We are lawyers who clerked for Justice Anthony Kennedy, a lifelong conservative appointed to the Supreme Court by President Ronald Reagan. We urge the Senate not to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett or any nominee until after the presidential election. Rushing through a confirmation with an election underway threatens the very legitimacy of the court.

Those lucky enough to interview for clerkships at the Supreme Court anticipate, or perhaps dread, a spirited debate on difficult jurisprudential issues. But the first question Justice Kennedy asked us both — and, we’d learn, all prospective clerks — had nothing to do with legal doctrine: “So, how are we doing?” It was perplexing at first to realize he cared less about our knowledge of legal particulars than about gauging how the court was perceived beyond its marble walls.

What we’d come to appreciate after a year working alongside him was that, far from just a friendly icebreaker, Justice Kennedy’s question revealed his understanding of a profound but often overlooked truth: The court’s influence extends only as far as its perceived legitimacy. As Alexander Hamilton put it, the judiciary “has no influence over either sword or the purse.” If the court wants the people to obey its rulings, it must depend on “neither force nor will, but merely judgment.” In other words, Supreme Court pronouncements are a dead letter unless the public accepts them as the law.

For his nearly two decades at the court’s center, Justice Kennedy understood this. Though he rejected the label of “swing justice,” it certainly fit: His opinions controlled cases that traversed our country’s deepest divides — on race, abortion, gay rights and campaign finance. Yet the judgments the court rendered during his tenure, while almost always drawing ire from one political faction or another, were accepted as legitimate. Al Gore conceded the day Bush v. Gore was decided. There was no latter day George Wallace blocking couples from the courthouse after the Obergefell decision guaranteed the right to same-sex marriage. For other government officials and the public, these decisions were understood to be final — not because the court is infallible, but because its judgments resulted from a process perceived as legitimate.

That fragile but crucial public acceptance was hard won over decades of compromises within and between each branch of government. But if Senate Republicans hastily confirm Judge Barrett in the middle of an election, when a clear majority of Americans would prefer that Congress focus on the nation’s economic recovery, that earned legitimacy will be put in jeopardy.

With Judge Merrick Garland denied even a hearing by Republicans after his nomination by President Barack Obama, and now the rush by those same Republicans to confirm Judge Barrett, the court’s very composition will be seen as a product of the most brazen kind of politics. We fear its decisions will be seen that way too.

That’s why the Republicans’ strategy of forcing through this nomination is shortsighted and may ultimately be self-defeating. The current court is, despite occasional hand-wringing on the right over a decision or two, the most conservative this nation has had in nearly a century. Yet each time it has delivered significant conservative victories — such as Citizens United, which struck down key campaign finance limits, written by our former boss in 2010 — liberals accepted the outcome as the law of the land.

But it is wrong to think that such acquiescence is guaranteed. Just consider calls among Democrats to increase the size of the court if they win the election.

Now we face a situation that Democrats may understandably find near impossible to swallow: a Supreme Court vacancy being filled the week before a presidential election, by a minority-elected president facing an improbable re-election and a Senate that denied President Obama (who was popularly elected twice) the right to fill a seat in an almost identical situation.

We’re liberals. But we’re also institutionalists. We don’t urge postponing Judge Barrett’s confirmation because of her qualifications or originalist philosophy, and we don’t question the sincerity of her promise to approach each case impartially. Our concerns run deeper — that regardless of how or why Justice Barrett would vote on the momentous issues that would come before her, the court’s decisions won’t be accepted.

We worry that a large swath of the nation, told a Democrat can’t fill a vacancy in an election year but a Republican can, will dismiss the court as yet another partisan body. And we worry that if our children are asked, years from now, “How is the court doing?” their answer will turn on which politicians last got their hands on it, and not the reasoning behind the court’s judgments.

Jamie Crooks and Samir Deger-Sen are lawyers.

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R.I.P., G.O.P.


R.I.P., G.O.P.
by The Editorial Board, nytimes.com
October 24, 2020 01:44 PM

Photo by: ...Guillem Casasús
Of all the things President Trump has destroyed, the Republican Party is among the most dismaying.

“Destroyed” is perhaps too simplistic, though. It would be more precise to say that Mr. Trump accelerated his party’s demise, exposing the rot that has been eating at its core for decades and leaving it a hollowed-out shell devoid of ideas, values or integrity, committed solely to preserving its own power even at the expense of democratic norms, institutions and ideals.

Tomato, tomahto. However you characterize it, the Republican Party’s dissolution under Mr. Trump is bad for American democracy.

A healthy political system needs robust, competing parties to give citizens a choice of ideological, governing and policy visions. More specifically, center-right parties have long been crucial to the health of modern liberal democracies, according to the Harvard political scientist Daniel Ziblatt’s study of the emergence of democracy in Western Europe. Among other benefits, a strong center right can co-opt more palatable aspects of the far right, isolating and draining energy from the more radical elements that threaten to destabilize the system.

Today’s G.O.P. does not come close to serving this function. It has instead allowed itself to be co-opted and radicalized by Trumpism. Its ideology has been reduced to a slurry of paranoia, white grievance and authoritarian populism. Its governing vision is reactionary, a cross between obstructionism and owning the libs. Its policy agenda, as defined by the party platform, is whatever President Trump wants — which might not be so pathetic if Mr. Trump’s interests went beyond “Build a wall!”

“There is no philosophical underpinning for the Republican Party anymore,” the veteran strategist Reed Galen recently lamented to this board. A co-founder of the Lincoln Project, a political action committee run by current and former Republicans dedicated to defeating Mr. Trump and his enablers, Mr. Galen characterized the party as a self-serving, power-hungry gang.

With his dark gospel, the president has enthralled the Republican base, rendering other party leaders too afraid to stand up to him. But to stand with Mr. Trump requires a constant betrayal of one’s own integrity and values. This goes beyond the usual policy flip-flops — what happened to fiscal hawks anyway? — and political hypocrisy, though there have been plenty of both. Witness the scramble to fill a Supreme Court seat just weeks before Election Day by many of the same Senate Republicans who denied President Barack Obama his high court pick in 2016, claiming it would be wrong to fill a vacancy eight months out from that election.

Mr. Trump demands that his interests be placed above those of the nation. His presidency has been an extended exercise in defining deviancy down — and dragging the rest of his party down with him.

Having long preached “character” and “family values,” Republicans have given a pass to Mr. Trump’s personal degeneracy. The affairs, the hush money, the multiple accusations of assault and harassment, the gross boasts of grabbing unsuspecting women — none of it matters. White evangelicals remain especially faithful adherents, in large part because Mr. Trump has appointed around 200 judges to the federal bench.

For all their talk about revering the Constitution, Republicans have stood by, slack-jawed, in the face of the president’s assault on checks and balances. Mr. Trump has spurned the concept of congressional oversight of his office. After losing a budget fight and shutting down the government in 2018-19, he declared a phony national emergency at the southern border so he could siphon money from the Pentagon for his border wall. He put a hold on nearly $400 million in Senate-approved aid to Ukraine — a move that played a central role in his impeachment.

So much for Republicans’ Obama-era nattering about “executive overreach.”

Despite fetishizing “law and order,” Republicans have shrugged as Mr. Trump has maligned and politicized federal law enforcement, occasionally lending a hand. Impeachment offered the most searing example. Parroting the White House line that the entire process was illegitimate, the president’s enablers made clear they had his back no matter what. As Pete Wehner, who served as a speechwriter to the three previous Republican presidents, observed in The Atlantic: “Republicans, from beginning to end, sought not to ensure that justice be done or truth be revealed. Instead, they sought to ensure that Trump not be removed from office under any circumstances, defending him at all costs.”

The debasement goes beyond passive indulgence. Congressional bootlickers, channeling Mr. Trump’s rantings about the Deep State, have used their power to target those who dared to investigate him. Committee chairmen like Representative Devin Nunes and Senator Ron Johnson have conducted hearings aimed at smearing Mr. Trump’s political opponents and delegitimizing the special counsel’s Russia inquiry.

As head of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, Mr. Johnson pushed a corruption investigation of Mr. Biden’s son Hunter that he bragged would expose the former vice president’s “unfitness for office.” Instead, he wasted taxpayer money producing an 87-page rehash of unsubstantiated claims reeking of a Russian disinformation campaign. Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, another Republican on the committee, criticized the inquiry as “a political exercise,” noting, “It’s not the legitimate role of government or Congress, or for taxpayer expense to be used in an effort to damage political opponents.”

Undeterred, last Sunday Mr. Johnson popped up on Fox News, engaging with the host over baseless rumors that the F.B.I. was investigating child pornography on a computer that allegedly had belonged to Hunter Biden. These vile claims are being peddled online by right-wing conspiracymongers, including QAnon.

Not that congressional toadies are the only offenders. A parade of administration officials — some of whom were well respected before their Trumpian tour — have stood by, or pitched in, as the president has denigrated the F.B.I., federal prosecutors, intelligence agencies and the courts. They have failed to prioritize election security because the topic makes Mr. Trump insecure about his win in 2016. They have pushed the limits of the law and human decency to advance Mr. Trump’s draconian immigration agenda.

Most horrifically, Republican leaders have stood by as the president has lied to the public about a pandemic that has already killed more than 220,000 Americans. They have watched him politicize masks, testing, the distribution of emergency equipment and pretty much everything else. Some echo his incendiary talk, fueling violence in their own communities. In the campaign’s closing weeks, as case numbers and hospitalizations climb and health officials warn of a rough winter, Mr. Trump is stepping up the attacks on his scientific advisers, deriding them as “idiots” and declaring Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top expert in infectious diseases, a “disaster.” Only a smattering of Republican officials has managed even a tepid defense of Dr. Fauci. Whether out of fear, fealty or willful ignorance, these so-called leaders are complicit in this national tragedy.

As Republican lawmakers grow increasingly panicked that Mr. Trump will lose re-election — possibly damaging their fortunes as well — some are scrambling to salvage their reputations by pretending they haven’t spent the past four years letting him run amok. In an Oct. 14 call with constituents, Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska gave a blistering assessment of the president’s failures and “deficient” values, from his misogyny to his calamitous handling of the pandemic to “the way he kisses dictators’ butts.” Mr. Sasse was less clear about why, the occasional targeted criticism notwithstanding, he has enabled these deficiencies for so long.

Senator John Cornyn of Texas, locked in his own tight re-election race, recently told the local media that he, too, has disagreed with Mr. Trump on numerous issues, including deficit spending, trade policy and his raiding of the defense budget. Mr. Cornyn said he opted to keep his opposition private rather than get into a public tiff with Mr. Trump “because, as I’ve observed, those usually don’t end too well.”

Profiles in courage these are not.

Mr. Trump’s corrosive influence on his party would fill a book. It has, in fact, filled several, as well as a slew of articles, social media posts and op-eds, written by conservatives both heartbroken and incensed over what has become of their party.

But many of these disillusioned Republicans also acknowledge that their team has been descending into white grievance, revanchism and know-nothing populism for decades. Mr. Trump just greased the slide. “He is the logical conclusion of what the Republican Party has become in the last 50 or so years,” the longtime party strategist Stuart Stevens asserts in his new book, “It Was All a Lie.”

The scars of Mr. Trump’s presidency will linger long after he leaves office. Some Republicans believe that, if those scars run only four years deep, rather than eight, their party can be nursed back to health. Others question whether there is anything left worth saving. Mr. Stevens’s prescription: “Burn it to the ground, and start over.”

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End minority rule

End Minority Rule
Either we become a truly multiracial democracy or we cease to be a democracy at all.

By Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt
Mr. Levitsky and Mr. Ziblatt are political scientists and the authors of “How Democracies Die.”

Oct. 23, 2020
The Trump presidency has brought American democracy to the breaking point. The president has encouraged violent extremists; deployed law enforcement and other public institutions as weapons against rivals; and undermined the integrity of elections through false claims of fraud, attacks on mail-in voting and an apparent unwillingness to accept defeat.

In this, he has been aided and abetted by a Republican Party that has fallen into the grips of white nationalism. The Republican base and its white Christian core, facing a loss of its dominant status in society, has radicalized, encouraging party leaders to engage in voter suppression, steal a Supreme Court seat in 2016 and tolerate the president’s lawless behavior. As a result, Americans today confront the prospect of a crisis-ridden election, in which they are unsure whether they will be able to cast a ballot fairly, whether their ballots will be counted, whether the candidate favored by voters will emerge victorious and whether the vote will throw the country into violence.

Yet if American democracy is nearing a breaking point, the crisis generated by the Trump presidency could also be a prelude to a democratic breakthrough. Opposition to Trumpism has engendered a growing multiracial majority that could lay a foundation for a more democratic future. Public opinion has shifted in important ways, especially among white Americans.

According to the political scientist Michael Tesler, the percentage of Americans who agree that “there’s a lot of discrimination against African-Americans” increased from 19 percent in 2013 to 50 percent in 2020, driven in the main by changes in the attitudes of white voters. Likewise, a Pew Research Center survey found that the percentage of Americans who believe that the country needs to “continue making changes to give Blacks equal rights with whites” rose from 46 percent in 2014 to 61 percent in 2017.

Polls also show that Americans overwhelmingly reject President Trump’s positions on race and that they increasingly embrace diversity. Last year, about two-thirds of Americans agreed with the statement that immigrants “strengthen the country,” up from 31 percent in 1994. And according to Pew, the percentage of voters who believe that “newcomers strengthen American society” rose from 46 percent in 2016 to 60 percent in 2020.

America’s emerging multiracial democratic majority was visible this summer in the aftermath of the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. The killing set off what may be the biggest wave of protest in United States history. An estimated 15 million to 26 million Americans took to the streets, and protests extended into small-town and rural America. Three-quarters of Americans supported the protests in June, and large majorities — including 60 percent of whites — supported the Black Lives Matter movement. These numbers declined over the course of the summer. As of September, however, 55 percent of Americans (and 45 percent of white Americans) continued to support Black Lives Matter, levels that were considerably higher than ever before in the movement’s history. This is why Mr. Trump’s efforts to resurrect Nixon’s “silent majority” appeals appear to have failed. The majority — seeking not a heavy-handed return to America’s racially exclusionary past but steps toward its multiracial democratic future — continue to sympathize with the protesters.

Not only do most Americans disapprove of the way Mr. Trump is handling his job, but an unprecedented majority now embraces ethnic diversity and racial equality, two essential pillars of multiracial democracy.

Yet translating this new multiethnic majority into a governing majority has been difficult. Democracy is supposed to be a game of numbers: The party with the most votes wins. In our political system, however, the majority does not govern. Constitutional design and recent political geographic trends — where Democrats and Republicans live — have unintentionally conspired to produce what is effectively becoming minority rule.

Our Constitution was designed to favor small (or low-population) states. Small states were given representation equal to that of big states in the Senate and an advantage in the Electoral College. What began as a minor small-state advantage evolved, over time, into a vast overrepresentation of rural states. For most of our history, this rural bias did not tilt the partisan playing field much because both major parties maintained huge urban and rural wings.

Today, however, American parties are starkly divided along urban-rural lines: Democrats are concentrated in big metropolitan centers, whereas Republicans are increasingly based in sparsely populated territories. This gives the Republicans an advantage in the Electoral College, the Senate and — because the president selects Supreme Court nominees and the Senate approves them — the Supreme Court.

Recent U.S. election results fly in the face of majority rule. Republicans have won the popular vote for president only once in the last 20 years and yet have controlled the presidency for 12 of those 20 years. Democrats easily won more overall votes for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018, and yet the Republicans hold 53 of 100 seats. The 45 Democratic and two independent senators who caucus with them represent more people than the 53 Republicans.

This is minority rule. An electoral majority may not be enough for the Democrats to win the presidency this year either. According to the FiveThirtyEight presidential model, if Joe Biden wins the popular vote by one to two points, there is an 80 percent chance that Mr. Trump wins the presidency again. If Mr. Biden wins by two to three points, Mr. Trump is still likely to win. Mr. Biden must win by six points or more to have a near lock on the presidency. Senate elections are similarly skewed. For Democrats today, then, winning a majority of the vote is not enough. They must win by big margins.

Michelle Alexander on the power of this summer’s protests
Opinion | Michelle Alexander
America, This Is Your Chance
We must get it right this time or risk losing our democracy forever.
June 8, 2020

The problem is exacerbated by Republican efforts to dampen turnout among younger, lower-income and minority voters. Republican state governments have purged voter rolls and closed polling places on college campuses and in predominantly African-American neighborhoods, and since 2010, a dozen Republican-led states have passed laws making it more difficult to register or vote.

Minority rule has, in turn, skewed the composition of the Supreme Court. Under Mr. Trump, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh became the first two Supreme Court justices in history to be appointed by a president who lost the popular vote and then be confirmed by senators who represented less than half the electorate. Amy Coney Barrett is likely to become the third.

In America today, then, the majority does not govern. This disjuncture cries out for reform. We must double down on democracy.

This means above all defending and expanding the right to vote. HR-1 and HR-4, a package of reforms approved by the House of Representatives in 2019 but blocked by the Senate, is a good start. HR-1 would establish nationwide automatic and same-day registration, expand early and absentee voting, prohibit flawed purges that remove eligible voters from the rolls, require independent redistricting commissions to draw congressional maps, and restore voting rights to convicted felons who have served their time. HR-4 would fully restore the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which was gutted by the Supreme Court’s Shelby County vs. Holder ruling in 2013.

Doubling down on democracy also means reforms that empower majorities, such as eliminating the Senate filibuster. The filibuster, which was rarely used during much of the 20th century, has turned into a routine instrument of legislative obstruction. There were more Senate filibusters over the last two decades than in the previous eight. All meaningful legislation now effectively requires 60 votes, which amounts to a permanent minority veto.

A democratic reform agenda should also include an offer of statehood to the District of Columbia and to Puerto Rico, which would provide full and equal representation to nearly four million Americans who are currently disenfranchised. And it should include elimination of the Electoral College. The House last voted in favor of a constitutional amendment in 1969, but the proposal died in the Senate, at the hands of old segregationist interests. (As Senator James Allen of Alabama put it: “The Electoral College is one of the South’s few remaining political safeguards. Let’s keep it.”)

Not only would ending minority rule be inherently democratic, but, importantly, it would also encourage the Republican Party to abandon its destructive course of radicalization. Normally, political parties change course when they lose elections. But in America today there is a hitch: Republicans can win and exercise power without building national electoral majorities. Excessively counter-majoritarian institutions blunt Republicans’ incentive to adapt to a changing American electorate. As long as the Republicans can hold onto power without broadening beyond their shrinking base, they will remain prone to the kind of extremism and demagogy that currently threatens our democracy.

There is ample precedent for democratic reform in America. A century ago, like today, the United States experienced disruptive economic change, an unprecedented influx of migrants and the growth of behemoth corporations. Citizens believed that their political system had become corrupt and dysfunctional. Progressive reform advocates like Herbert Croly argued that Americans were living in a democracy with antiquated institutions designed for an agrarian society, which left our political system ill-equipped to cope with the problems of an industrial age and vulnerable to corporate capture.

The response was a sweeping reform movement that remade our democracy. Key reforms — then regarded as radical but now taken for granted — included the introduction of party primaries; the expansion of the citizen referendum; and constitutional amendments allowing a national income tax, establishing the direct election of U.S. senators and extending suffrage to women. American democracy thrived in the 20th century in part because it was able to reform itself.

Critics of reform assert that counter-majoritarian institutions are essential to liberal democracy. We agree. That’s what the Bill of Rights and judicial review are for: to help ensure that individual liberties and minority rights are protected under majority rule. But disenfranchisement is not a feature of modern liberal democracy. No other established democracy has an Electoral College or makes regular use of the filibuster. And a political system that repeatedly allows a minority party to control the most powerful offices in the country cannot remain legitimate for long.

Democracy requires more than majority rule. But without majority rule, there is no democracy. Either we become a truly multiracial democracy or we cease to be a democracy at all.

More from Levitsky and Ziblatt on democracy’s woes
Opinion | Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt
Why Republicans Play DirtySept. 20, 2019

Opinion | Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt
Why Autocrats Love EmergenciesJan. 12, 2019

Opinion | Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt
Is Donald Trump a Threat to Democracy?Dec. 16, 2016

Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt (@dziblatt), professors of government at Harvard, are the authors of “How Democracies Die.”


Sunday, October 25, 2020

Americans Should Brace for 100,000 New COVID Cases a Day, Experts Say


Americans Should Brace for 100,000 New COVID Cases a Day, Experts Say
by Olivia Messer, thedailybeast.com
October 24, 2020 04:41 PM

Bing Guan/Reuters
Photo by: Bing Guan/Reuters
“You should be prepared for how bad it’s going to get.”

That was the resounding—and sobering—takeaway from public health experts and epidemiologists who spoke to The Daily Beast on Saturday, hours after the U.S. smashed its previous record of new daily COVID-19 cases. The country hit 83,757 reported infections in one day on Friday, while hospitalizations skyrocketed across the nation by 40 percent.

The problem, experts say, isn’t Friday’s number. It’s the upward trajectory.

“It’s going to get a lot worse,” said Dr. William Haseltine, an internationally renowned infectious disease expert who was at the heart of the U.S response to the HIV/AIDS and anthrax crises. “We’re looking at easily an excess of 100,000 infections a day and overwhelmed hospitals all over the country.”

Haseltine said that prediction was supported by several factors: The weather will only get colder, forcing people indoors. Flu season is approaching. The holidays will tempt people to gather in groups. There are no silver bullets coming. The smaller—but still devastating—peaks in the spring and the summer were largely contained to specific regions of the United States.

“Now it’s just about everywhere across the country,” said Haseltine, noting that cases are impacting more age groups, environments, and facilities. While many states saw clusters originating in meatpacking plants, prisons, and retirement facilities earlier in the year, they’re now being traced more often back to private family gatherings, religious services, bars, athletic events, colleges, high schools, and more.

That news might be shocking to anyone who believed President Trump’s declaration this week that the country is “rounding the corner” on the pandemic and that the virus is “going away.”

But Haseltine’s prediction that “we’re not even near the peak” of the latest surge was backed by other experts who spoke with The Daily Beast on Saturday.

“What we can hope for,” said Haseltine, “is that this will plateau at 100,000 [new cases per day], and that enough people will get enough scared and that enough hospitals will get overwhelmed” that it convinces the American public to wear masks, social distance, and exercise caution.

Dr. Jennifer Horney, founding director and professor in the University of Delaware’s epidemiology program, noted that Haseltine’s prediction was consistent with the latest published results from the forecasting team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. Its report on Friday in Nature estimated a cumulative total of 511,373 deaths across the United States by February 28, 2021.

A Pervasive Myth
To be clear, more Americans are, every day, gaining increased access to quicker and effective tests, raising a question that Horney called a “pervasive” myth: Are dramatic COVID-19 case increases just a reflection of the fact that we’re testing more people?

In short: No.

Experts surveyed by The Daily Beast on Saturday pointed out that hospitalization and fatality rates are also increasing—robust indications of trends—and that positivity rates in several states are too high to be accurately reflecting a full picture of the number of infections.

“Hospitalizations don’t yet reflect what happened this week,” Haseltine said.

Even still, hospitals all over the country—from Amarillo, Texas to Salt Lake City, Utah, and Kansas City, Missouri and Milwaukee, Wisconsin—reported this week that they were overwhelmed and approaching capacity.

Dr. Irwin Redlener, founding director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness and a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, agreed with Haseltine’s prediction, saying he would “also remind people” that the number of confirmed cases is only “a fraction of the total.”

In June, Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the number of confirmed cases likely represented only 10 percent of true infections. That means on the days that the country saw 60,000 new cases, there were actually closer to 600,000. While Delaware’s Dr. Horney noted that such case representation has likely improved with access to testing, it hasn’t improved enough not to be reflecting a true rise in cases across the nation.

And, worryingly, none of the experts interviewed by The Daily Beast said there was any evidence of change at the institutional, state, local, or individual level that would curb the deadly virus’s worrying trend.

‘Failure of Leadership’
“There’s a failure of leadership, failure of governance and failure of social solidarity in the Western world,” said Haseltine. “The Chinese taught the world what to do. You can stop the infection without a vaccine, without a drug—and stop it forever. It’s not that they’re totalitarian, it’s that they did what public health officials told them to do. What is wrong with the rest of us?”

On that point, both Redlener and Horney agreed.

“The dearth of federal leadership has become so apparent and has had such a tragic impact,” said Horney. “The secret in all of these kinds of emergencies is to have strong guidance with enough flexibility to make it locally relevant.”

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s projection published on Friday in Nature also found “that achieving universal mask use—95 percent mask use in public—could be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states” and that such compliance “could save an additional 129,574 lives” through the end of February 2021. Even 85 percent mask compliance, said the forecast, could save an additional 95,814 lives.

“It’s not too late to talk about a national mask mandate, which is one of the few tools we have to deal with this since we don’t have a vaccine,” said Redlener, echoing a sentiment vocalized a day earlier by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease official.

But without a national mandate, state and local health departments are left to make their own ordinances, the result of which has been headline-grabbing in-fighting from Texas to Georgia.

In Illinois, the state’s public health director broke down in tears on Friday, begging the public to follow health guidelines.

“If you’re talking about COVID fatigue from having to keep wearing a mask, think about the COVID fatigue for health-care workers, respiratory therapists, who are going to have to go through this whole episode again of trying to fight for people’s lives, because we couldn’t figure out how to control this virus by doing some of the simple measures that have been prescribed,” Dr. Ngozi Ezike said.

Without a federal strategy, said infectious disease experts, pandemic-weary Americans have been left to make their own decisions in the public interest, to decipher mixed messages from departments and politicians, to understand that eating indoors at restaurants may be technically allowed, but not responsible. There will always be people who trust a corporation’s analysis that its product is safe—or who believe their individual liberty is more important than the public good.

“We are always emotional and sometimes rational, it’s just human nature,” said Haseltine. “Belief trumps facts every time.”

‘Be Prepared’
Horney’s advice to the public is to “double down” and make plans now. Whether you live in New York or South Dakota, in a city or rural environment, on a college campus or in a retirement community: “Get your flu shot. Wear your mask.” The more lax people are, the worse cases will get, and the worse off every community will be, she said.

“Be prepared—and not in this joking sort of way about running out of toilet paper—in the real way,” she continued. “If your kids are in school, be ready for them to pivot to remote learning.”

As Redlener said, the nation is in a “battle” between pandemic fatigue and pandemic fatalities.

“This virus is anything but slowing down,” Redlener warned, and if Americans don’t begin to take it much, much more seriously, he said, “We’re in trouble.”

Got a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast: www.thedailybeast.com/tips

Friday, October 23, 2020

America and the Virus: ‘A Colossal Failure of Leadership’


America and the Virus: ‘A Colossal Failure of Leadership’
by Nicholas Kristof, nytimes.com
October 22, 2020 04:00 AM

Photo by: ...Max Loeffler
One of the most lethal leadership failures in modern times unfolded in South Africa in the early 2000s as AIDS spread there under President Thabo Mbeki.

Mbeki scorned science, embraced conspiracy theories, dithered as the disease spread and rejected lifesaving treatments. His denialism cost about 330,000 lives, a Harvard study found.

None of us who wrote scathingly about that debacle ever dreamed that something similar might unfold in the United States. But today, health experts regularly cite President Trump as an American Mbeki.

“We’re unfortunately in the same place,” said Anne Rimoin, an epidemiologist at U.C.L.A. “Mbeki surrounded himself with sycophants and cost his country hundreds of thousands of lives by ignoring science, and we’re suffering the same fate.”

One role of journalism is to establish accountability, and that’s particularly important before an election. Trump says he deserves an A-plus for his “phenomenal job” handling the coronavirus, but the judgment of history is likely to be far harsher.

“I see it as a colossal failure of leadership,” said Larry Brilliant, a veteran epidemiologist who helped eliminate smallpox in the 1970s. “Of the more than 200,000 people who have died as of today, I don’t think that 50,000 would have died if it hadn’t been for the incompetence.”

Video

The U.S. spent 15 years preparing for the coronavirus. Why did we handle it so badly?
There’s plenty of blame to go around, involving Democrats as well as Republicans, but Trump in particular “recklessly squandered lives,” in the words of an unusual editorial this month in the New England Journal of Medicine. Death certificates may record the coronavirus as the cause of death, but in a larger sense vast numbers of Americans died because their government was incompetent.

As many Americans are dying every 10 days of Covid-19 as U.S. troops died during 19 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the economists David Cutler and Lawrence Summers estimate that the economic cost of the pandemic in the United States will be $16 trillion, or about $125,000 per American household — far more than the median family’s net worth. Then there’s an immeasurable cost in soft power as the United States is humbled before the world.

“It’s really sad to see the U.S. presidency fall from being the champion of global health to being the laughingstock of the world,” said Devi Sridhar, an American who is a professor of global health at the University of Edinburgh. “It was a tragedy of history that Donald Trump was president when this hit.”

The United States has made other terrible mistakes over the decades, including the Iraq War and the War on Drugs. But in terms of destruction of American lives, treasure and wellbeing, this pandemic may be the greatest failure of governance in the United States since the Vietnam War.

America Was the Leader in Pandemic Preparedness.

The paradox is that a year ago, the United States seemed particularly well positioned to handle this kind of crisis. A 324-page study by Johns Hopkins found last October that the United States was the country best prepared for a pandemic.

Credit for that goes to President George W. Bush, who in the summer of 2005 read an advance copy of “The Great Influenza,” a history of the 1918 flu pandemic. Shaken, Bush pushed aides to develop a strategy to prepare for another great contagion, and the result was an excellent 396-page playbook for managing such a health crisis.

The Obama administration updated this playbook and in the presidential transition in 2016, Obama aides cautioned the Trump administration that one of the big risks to national security was a contagion. Private experts repeated similar warnings. “Of all the things that could kill 10 million people or more, by far the most likely is an epidemic,” Bill Gates warned in 2015.

Trump has accused the Obama administration of depleting stockpiles of medical supplies so that “the cupboard was bare.” It’s true that the Obama administration did not do enough to refill the national stockpile with N95 masks, but Republicans in Congress wouldn’t provide even the modest sums that Obama requested for replenishment. And the Trump administration itself did nothing in its first three years to rebuild stockpiles.

We in the media also blew it: We didn’t do enough to warn about the risks of pandemics.

Trump argues that no one could have anticipated the pandemic, but it’s what Bush warned about, what Obama aides tried to tell their successors about, and what Joe Biden referred to in a blunt tweet in October 2019 lamenting Trump’s cuts to health security programs and adding: “We are not prepared for a pandemic.”

The First Alarm Bells From Wuhan

When the health commission of Wuhan, China, announced on Dec. 31 that it had identified 27 cases of a puzzling pneumonia, Taiwan acted with lightning speed. Concerned that this might be an outbreak of SARS, Taiwan dispatched health inspectors to board flights arriving from Wuhan and screen passengers before allowing them to disembark. Anyone showing signs of ill health was quarantined.

If either China or the rest of the world had shown the same urgency, the pandemic might never have happened.

In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a notice about the Wuhan outbreak on Jan. 1, but not much else happened for a time. In China, President Xi Jinping issued orders on Jan. 7 for handling the coronavirus, but they were inadequate. If, at that time or soon after, Xi had ordered a more modest version of the Wuhan lockdown that was to come, it is possible that the virus could have been stifled before it spread around the globe.

Instead, Wuhan held a banquet for 40,000 people on Jan. 18, and by the time the lockdown was ordered on Jan. 23, some five million people had already left Wuhan for the Chinese New Year. In hindsight, two points seem clear: First, China initially covered up the scale of the outbreak. Second, even so, the United States and other countries had enough information to act as Taiwan did. The first two countries to impose travel restrictions on China were North Korea and the Marshall Islands, neither of which had inside information.

That first half of January represents a huge missed opportunity for the world. If the United States, the World Health Organization and the world media had raised enough questions and pressed China, then perhaps the Chinese central government would have intervened in Wuhan earlier. And if Wuhan had been locked down just two weeks earlier, it’s conceivable that this entire global catastrophe could have been averted.

The Defiance of Science

Perhaps the original sin of America’s response to the coronavirus came with the bungling of testing.

Without testing, health officials fight an opponent while blindfolded. They don’t know where the virus lurks, and they can’t isolate those infected or trace their contacts.

But the C.D.C. devised a faulty test, and turf wars in the federal government prevented the use of other tests. South Korea, Germany and other countries quickly developed tests that did work, and these were distributed around the world. Sierra Leone in West Africa had effective tests before the United States did.

Trump supporters note, correctly, that within the United States, the states with the highest mortality rates have been Democrat-led: New Jersey has had the most deaths per capita, followed by New York. It’s true that local politicians, Democrats and Republicans alike, made disastrous decisions, as when Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City urged people in March to “get out on the town despite coronavirus.” But local officials erred in part because of the failure of testing: Without tests, they didn’t know what they faced.

It’s unfair to blame the testing catastrophe entirely on Trump, for the failures unfolded several paygrades below him. Partly that’s because Trump appointees, like Robert Redfield, director of the C.D.C., simply aren’t the A team.

In any case, presidents set priorities for lower officials. If Trump had pushed aides as hard to get accurate tests as he pushed to repel refugees and migrants, then America almost certainly would have had an effective test by the beginning of February and tens of thousands of lives would have been saved.

Still, testing isn’t essential if a country gets backup steps right. Japan is a densely populated country that did not test much and yet has only 2 percent as many deaths per capita as the United States. One reason is that Japanese have long embraced face masks, which Dr. Redfield has noted can be at least as effective as a vaccine in fighting the pandemic. A country doesn’t have to do everything, if it does some things right.

Yet in retrospect, Trump did almost everything wrong. He discouraged mask wearing. The administration never rolled out contact tracing, missed opportunities to isolate the infected and exposed, didn’t adequately protect nursing homes, issued advice that confused the issues more than clarified them, and handed responsibilities to states and localities that were unprepared to act. Trump did do a good job of accelerating a vaccine, but that won’t help significantly until next year.

Trump’s missteps arose in part because he channeled an anti-intellectual current that runs deep in the United States, as he sidelined scientific experts and responded to the virus with a sunny optimism apparently meant to bolster the financial markets.

“It’s going to disappear,” Trump said on Feb. 27. “One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”

The false reassurances and dithering were deadly. One study found that if the United States had simply imposed the same lockdowns just two weeks earlier, 83 percent of the deaths in the early months could have been prevented.

A basic principle of public health is the primacy of accurate communications based on the best science. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who holds a doctorate in physics, is the global champion of that approach. Trump was the opposite, sowing confusion and conspiracy theories; a Cornell study found that “the President of the United States was likely the largest driver of the Covid-19 misinformation.”

Instead of listening to top government scientists, Trump marginalized and derided them, while elevating charlatans: One senior health department official, Michael Caputo, who had no background in health, was ousted only after he denounced government scientists for “sedition” and advised Trump supporters, “If you carry guns, buy ammunition.”

Trump recruited as a Covid-19 adviser a regular guest on Fox News, Dr. Scott Atlas, who is not a specialist on infectious diseases but a radiologist who is an expert on magnetic resonance imaging. You wouldn’t want an epidemiologist reviewing your MRI scans, and it’s equally odd to have a radiologist managing a pandemic.

A conservative commentariat echoed Trump in downplaying the virus and deriding efforts to stay safe. Brit Hume of Fox News mocked Joe Biden for wearing a large mask, and the right-wing website RedState denounced “the public health Gestapo” and called Dr. Anthony Fauci a “mask Nazi.” A University of Chicago study found that watching the Sean Hannity program correlated to less social distancing, so watching Fox News may well have been lethal to some of its fans.

Echoes of the Soviet Union

Americans have often pointed to the Soviet Union as a place where ideology trumped science, with disastrous results. Stalin backed Trofim Lysenko, an agricultural pseudoscientist who was an ardent Communist but scorned genetics — and whose zealous incompetence helped cause famines in the Soviet Union. Later, in the 1980s, Soviet leaders were troubled by data showing falling life expectancy — so they banned publication of mortality statistics. It was in the same spirit that Trump opposed testing for the coronavirus in the hope of holding down the number of reported cases.

Of course, science sometimes gets it wrong. Many experts opposed closing borders, while Trump’s move to limit travel from China now appears sound — although 45 countries imposed such travel restrictions before the United States. Likewise, Fauci said on March 9: “If you’re a healthy, young person, if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship.”

Inevitably, science errs, then self-corrects. But Trump was not self-correcting.

Most striking, Trump still has never developed a comprehensive plan to fight Covid-19. His “strategy” was to downplay the virus and resist business closures, in an effort to keep the economy roaring — his best argument for re-election.

This failed. The best way to protect the economy was to control the virus, not to ignore it, and the spread of Covid-19 caused economic dislocations that devastated even homes where no one was infected. Eight million Americans have slipped into poverty since May, a Columbia University study found, and about one in seven households with children have reported to the census that they didn’t have enough food to eat in the last seven days. More than 40 percent of adults reported in June that they were struggling with mental health, and 13 percent have begun or increased substance abuse, a C.D.C. study found. More than one-quarter of young adults said they have seriously contemplated suicide. Diane Reynolds, who runs an excellent addiction program called Provoking Hope, estimates that relapses have increased 50 percent during the pandemic.

So in what is arguably the richest country in the history of the world, political malpractice has resulted in a pandemic of infectious disease followed by pandemics of poverty, mental illness, addiction and hunger.

The rejection of science has also exacerbated polarization and tribalism. As I write this I’m on our family farm in rural Oregon. Trump is popular in this area, and his contempt for science has contributed to a dangerous unraveling, even talk of civil war. An old school friend shared this conspiracy theory on Facebook:

Create a VIRUS to scare people. Place them in quarantine. Count the number of dead every second of every day in every news headline. Close all businesses …. Mask people. Dehumanize them. Close temples and churches …. Empty the prisons because of the virus and fill the streets with criminals. Send in Antifa to vandalize property as if they are freedom fighters. Undermine the law. Loot …. And, in an election year, have Democrats blame all of it on the President. If you love America, our Constitution, and the Rule of Law, get ready to fight for them.

Mismanagement of the virus has not only sickened millions of Americans but has also poisoned our body politic.

Taking a Threat Seriously

A pandemic is a huge challenge for any country. Spain and Brazil have both had more deaths per capita than the United States, and Europe now has slightly more new infections per capita than the United States.

Still, it’s not reassuring for the country that a year ago was considered best prepared for a pandemic to hear: We’re not quite as bad as Brazil!

During World War II, American soldiers died at a rate of 9,200 a month, less than one-third the pace of deaths from this pandemic, but the United States responded with a massive mobilization. By 1945, a Ford assembly line was turning out one new B-24 bomber every hour. Yet today we can’t even churn out enough face masks; a poll of nurses in late July and early August found that one-third lacked enough N95 masks.

Trump and his allies have even argued against mobilization. “Don’t be afraid of Covid,” Trump tweeted this month. “Don’t let it dominate your life.” Attorney General William Barr compared stay-at-home orders to slavery.

Instead of leading a war against the virus, Trump organized a surrender. He even held a super-spreader event at the White House, for Judge Amy Coney Barrett, and that’s why the White House recently had more new cases of Covid-19 than New Zealand, Taiwan and Vietnam combined.

It didn’t have to be this way. If the U.S. had worked harder and held the per capita mortality rate down to the level of, say, Germany, we could have saved more than 170,000 lives. And if the U.S. had responded urgently and deftly enough to achieve Taiwan’s death rate, fewer than 100 Americans would have died from the virus.

“It is a slaughter,” Dr. William Foege, a legendary epidemiologist who once ran the C.D.C., wrote to Dr. Redfield. Dr. Foege predicted that public health textbooks would study America’s response to Covid-19 not as a model of A-plus work but as an example of what not to do.

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The Con He Rode In On

The Con He Rode In On

By Mark Danner, October 21, 2020

Why do people hardly even talk about all the car plants Donald Trump has brought to Michigan?

November 19, 2020 issue


Amid the sensory swirl of the airplane hangar in Freeland, Michigan—the thousands of voices screaming, the red MAGA hats bobbing and shifting, the fifty-foot flags on cranes flapping and snapping, the long sleek blue-and-white bulk of Air Force One gleaming, the elbow-to-elbow crowd heaving and swelling (and, in my worried fancy, the predatory virus molecules dancing ominously amid the sea of tiny Trumps filling countless tiny cell phone screens)—the leader slow-walks toward us, fist pumping slowly, with that trademark ponderous tread of his (dating back at least to his boardroom entrances in The Apprentice), adjusts the mike, leans slightly sideways, and lances into it all with a stark declaration: “We brought you a lot of car plants, Michigan! We brought you a lot of car plants. You know that, right?”


Comes in prompt response the ear-splitting roar of affirmation, clear as clear can be: Yes, Mr. President, we know that! A joyful knowledge, a knowledge to celebrate: all those jobs in all those car plants! But what exactly is it possible to know about those car plants? I could not have been the only one in that obstreperous crowd, made up overwhelmingly of Michiganders, to know the presumably important fact that, well…those car plants didn’t exist. Any member in good standing of the ancient “reality-based community” could have told you that since the coming of Trump no new car plants had been built in Michigan, that since his ascension not less than three thousand Michiganders had lost jobs in the vital auto sector. Perhaps it wasn’t Trump’s fault, but it was a fact. But what was a fact exactly?


He had promised Michigan new car plants and within the chilly expanse of his own mind he had delivered. And the roar of worshipful approbation meant that he had carried these thousands of souls to that place with him. “Dang!” a sweatshirted middle-aged woman told me afterward as we waited in line to buy hot dogs and lemonade. “I had no idea he had done so much for the state! I mean, people hardly even talk about it…” She was a nurse, trained in anatomy, physiology, biology—science, that is to say. But to her the president’s word was Truth; the idea that “people hardly even talk about” the car plants because they don’t exist was not only heretical but inconceivable. She couldn’t conceive it and neither could the thousands of others shouting around me.


Nor could they conceive—as could I, the timorous heretic hidden among them—the virus particles in every explosion of breath, every bit of spittle cast aloft on the gales of mass enthusiasm. The virus was a hoax. Was the leader afraid of the virus? (Asked the following week—before his own infection—if he was concerned about the virus spreading at his rallies, he responded with his customary laser focus: “I’m on a stage and it’s very far away. And so I’m not at all concerned.”) So how could the virus threaten them, armored as they were in their Trump-as-Superman T-shirts and Trump flag pajamas?


So when he came before them, the leader’s first words were a lie, one of the 20,000 and more that The Washington Post and other “enemies of the people” have presumed to track, catalog, and codify. To the reality-based community he would seem to embody as none before him the ancient Hollywood joke:


How do you know he’s lying?


His lips are moving.


And yet to call this lie a lie makes little sense. These words constitute merely a single brushstroke on the vast canvas of a created world, full of car plants and steel plants and the millions of smokestacks making up “the greatest economy the world has ever seen.” True, it was all imagined but Trump’s greatest gift had always been the imposition of his own imagination on the crowd. “I play to people’s fantasies,” he (or more probably his ghostwriter) had written back in 1987:


People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That’s why a little hyperbole never hurts. People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular.


I call it truthful hyperbole. It’s an innocent form of exaggeration—and a very effective form of promotion. [my italics]


“Truthful hyperbole” because the details of that created world emerge from one central belief in the hero’s mind, rooted directly in his gargantuan and fragile ego: I have done an incredible job. All those auto plants and steel plants become not lies or creations but exaggerations flowering decoratively from that a priori truth. Before the crowd of red-faced partisans chanting his name, he transformed from a snake-oil salesman, a great pattering con man in the Elmer Gantry tradition, a postmodern Willy Loman, to a masterful crafter and seller of dreams. They believed him and not their lyin’ eyes because they wanted so desperately to believe.


In the imagination of the crowd Trump was an original but the lineaments of that imagination, its workings and its cravings, are anything but new. Those surrounding me were not poor (though poorer now than six months before); white working class, middle class, they could see clearly enough what they didn’t have: power. What had become increasingly obvious over the decades of dwindling wages and pointless wars and now this endless pandemic was the extent of their own powerlessness. They needed not only someone to blame—immigrants, anarchists, affirmative action beneficiaries, Black Lives Matter protesters, a corrupt and devious elite who for its own self-interested reasons let them all have free run—but a voice to articulate it. The dynamic playing out before me was ancient: Already Nietzsche was calling it “ressentiment,” and had he been transported to Freeland, Michigan the German philologist would have recognized instantly what he was seeing enacted before him, a kind of Mummers’ revolt of the powerless:


The ressentiment of natures that are denied the true reaction, that of deeds, and compensate themselves with imaginary revenge…. This No is its creative deed.

Trump, the tribune of the powerless, the unmasker of the powerful, the denouncer, the insulter, the despoiler of idols—Trump was their “imaginary revenge.” He entertained them, flattered them, and from his strength they drew encouragement. Here before me, among those hooting and hollering at fanciful car plants and sacrificing themselves, maskless, to the leader’s imagination was Nietzsche’s futile “resentment of the lambs for the bird of prey,” and it was on that soul-deep instinct that Trump played like a virtuoso.


He was the artist of grievance, for here was an emotion he understood intimately, as only an ambitious boy raised in Queens and never taken seriously in the sacred precincts of Manhattan power can understand it. “I have been treated very badly”—was this not his mantra, not only for his presidency but for all the decades before? What more appropriate phrase for workers who had fled the Democrats for Ronald Reagan but still saw their jobs shipped abroad, their cities and businesses despoiled of factories and downtowns? The elite, the leader reminded them with offhand resentment, had spent the previous decades “offshoring Michigan’s jobs, outsourcing Michigan’s factories, throwing open your borders, dragging us into endless foreign wars, and surrendering our children’s future to China and other faraway lands.”


But, he told them, their aggrievement was his: the outsider, the one who would not rest in fighting for what was right against the machinations of the elite and the Deep State and the other agents of betrayal. Who fought even the diabolical child abductors and blood guzzlers around Hillary Clinton and the rest of the Democratic cabal (I counted the QAnon sweatshirts dotting the crowd, the magic-markered Q on a cheek here, on a forehead there) and stood against the torrent of abuse and for the innocence of childhood. He told them what they hated and he shared their hatred—but he could do something about it. And with every imaginary success he showcased the incompetence of the elite he’d supplanted. His followers took solace also in seeing that, despite the aggrievement he shared, the leader retained the plumage of the bird of prey—as had demagogues back to Cleon and Catiline and before—and they were proud of that, of his planes and houses and business chicanery (and even, were the truth admitted, of his porn stars and his Playboy Bunnies). For them in turn the leader offered his own peculiarly self-centered form of flattery and a reverie on their shared glory:


You know, this is not the crowd of a person who comes in second-place, you do know that? The same thing happened four years ago. It was election eve, but by the time I got here it was late. Some of you were in that audience, at one o’clock in the morning, now election day. We had 32,000 people show up, and the reason I went was that I heard that Crooked Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, and Barack Hussein Obama were traveling to Michigan because they heard they had problems. They were supposed to win Michigan but they did such a lousy job that they had to come and get some votes and they came and I heard about it. They said, “Sir, could you do it?” and I hopped in the plane…. Thirty-two thousand people. She had five hundred people. I said, “Why are we going to lose Michigan?” And we didn’t.


They all knew by heart the climax of this epic: Trump with his late-night barnstorming had drawn to an inside straight and pulled out Michigan by a minuscule 10,704 votes—along with Wisconsin by 22,748 and Pennsylvania by 44,292. Those 77,744 people, in the face of Clinton’s vast plurality of nearly 2.9 million Americans, had made Trump president. Barely twice the number that had been howling on the Freeland tarmac at one o’clock in the morning on election day four years before.


Ifelt an elbow jostle me, found myself crashing against a bearded man in a red hoodie: Trump 2020: No Bullshit! We were packed shoulder to shoulder but no 32,000 now. By the next day the official estimate would be 5,500. How many were wearing masks? Two hundred? Maybe, at a stretch, five hundred? I felt vaguely self-conscious in my red Trump 2020 mask. Mostly I felt vertigo. It had been six months since I’d been in a crowd. And now the voices overwhelmed in the echoing hangar. Trump was insulting those ideologues among the elite whose greedy, blind belief in so-called free trade had pauperized the smokestack heart of the country. People laughed, hooted, rocked back and forth. “Four more years! Four more years!” He smiled benevolently at the crowd, drinking in the adulation. It seemed to make him grow in size. Easy to see why these events were necessary to him, why stopping them was like depriving an addict of his supply. What did a narcissist fantasize about?


But the crowd loved it, too. Above our heads floated still that constant glitter of cell phone screens with their little Trumps, tiny echoes of the man onstage, their bearers stretching and crouching and straining in that most contemporary pose of electronic prayer. The leader joked, sneered, laughed. “I love you!” came from the crowd. “Don’t say that,” Trump shot back. “I’ll start to cry, and that wouldn’t be good for my image.” Huge chortles. Then back to the culpable elites.


He insulted, he ranted, he stabbed and hacked with his ridicule. With him, Nietzsche’s “imaginary revenge” of the lambs on the birds of prey became vivid and entertaining—especially when it turned into the gold of elite outrage. “If you are a little different, or a little outrageous…the press is going to write about you,” the young Manhattan developer had opined knowingly nearly four decades before, and how much truer now for a president? He would portion out the vitriol daily, just enough to dominate the news cycle, and for his followers this would be recycled as his “No,” his “creative deed.” Each wave of elite outrage bolstered his authenticity, made them love him more. From everyone else the outrage would bring that most valuable of contemporary commodities—eyeballs!—and Trump would rule the airwaves and the Twittersphere. Whether it was against Trump or for Trump, everyone everywhere was selling Trump Trump Trump. That was why, he explained to The New York Times with a knowing smirk, he was sure to be reelected:


I’m going to win another four years…because newspapers, television, all forms of media will tank if I’m not there because without me, their ratings are going down the tubes. Without me, TheNew York Times will indeed be not the failing New York Times, but the failed New York Times. So they basically have to let me win.

A melted Trump/Pence campaign sign after the Bear Fire, Feather Falls, California

Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images


A melted Trump/Pence campaign sign after the Bear Fire, Feather Falls, California, September 2020


The joke was on the so-called commercial press, which had revealed itself decisively under Trump to be commercial first, press second. Was it $2 or $5 billion they had given him in free media in 2016? Had it not been this very cycle of outrage, and the eager selling of that outrage by his supposed political antagonists in the “lamestream media,” that had made Trump president? Lenin would have been pleased. The elite had sold the rope to hang themselves with.


Of course no elites had been hanged. Trump had smeared and besmirched and traduced and denounced. The volume had been high, the outrage constant, the spinning news cycle exhausting. He had depopulated entire bureaucracies of the federal government. He had exchanged “love letters” with Kim Jong-un and long meaningful gazes with Vladimir Putin. He had schemed and plotted and obstructed. He had kept the white supremacists and the denizens of all sorts of armed and angry fever swamps locked and loaded. To Portland and other cities he had even sent the country’s own version of Putin’s “little green men,” armed troops without insignia who tumbled random protesters into unmarked vans.


It had all been unprecedented. But there had been no revolution. Amid all the disruption and furor and insanity there had been merely a right-wing Republican program of tax cuts for the rich and reactionary judges for the ideologues. Of populism, not so much—not even an infrastructure bill so the builder-leader could put his followers to work. Still, “we’ve already built 310 miles of border wall,” he reminded us proudly, and as the chants echoed around me—“Build that wall! Build that wall!”—I was put in mind of a favorite bamboozling passage from The Art of the Deal:


I called in my construction supervisor and told him that I wanted him to round up every bulldozer and dump truck he could possibly find, and put them to work on my site immediately. Over the next week, I said, I wanted him to transform my two acres of nearly vacant property into the most active construction site in the history of the world. What the bulldozers and dump trucks did wasn’t important, I said, so long as they did a lot of it….


One week later, I accompanied top Holiday Inns executives and the entire board of directors out to the Boardwalk [in Atlantic City]. It looked as if we were in the midst of building the Grand Coulee Dam.

Thus the southern border, where, in that strange, flickering antiworld of reality that seldom peeped through his words, Trump had built perhaps four miles of new wall. Here too the idea of the wall was what he had brought his followers, as real as those auto plants. It had begun as a Wall of the Imagination, and so it would remain. The truth was that as president he had built little. The truth was he knew nothing of governing and was loath to learn. His ideas were cartoonish and shallow, and where his simple slogans had met with frustration—at the border, for example—he had imposed cruelty. Elsewhere his concerns had been mundane. He had fleeced the republic with amazing ease and embarrassing homeliness, charging his Secret Service detail more than $1 million to stay at his properties. He fired, craved loyalty, sought revenge. Every tempest a headline.


What astonished was not the leader’s lack of respect for norms—had that not always been obvious?—but how ephemeral those norms proved to be. Before the will of Trump’s henchman at the Department of Justice, the highly touted “rule of law” was revealed as one tiny step removed from “a country of men, not of laws.” The widely cited Wizard of Oz comparison appeared truest when it came to the most cherished of the country’s institutions, first and foremost its vaunted “separation of powers.” What good are Congress’s institutional prerogatives when those in the Senate majority want only their tax cuts and their judges and prove eager to close their eyes to the rest? Their brute reverence for political survival over all else was as mundane as it was shocking. Emoluments clause? Foreign countries are paying for rooms in Trump’s hotel without even bothering to show up. “They know this guy,” a friend in the Persian Gulf said of his own country’s rich and autocratic leaders. He rubbed his thumb and index finger together. “With this guy, the only question you need to ask is: what’s it gonna take…?”


Think of it all as a stress test for the country’s institutions, one they badly failed. The reverence had been badly misplaced, or anyway badly dated. How much, with barely 80,000 votes and his own imagination, had he shown to be a façade? How many times might that Potemkin construction site be held up as metaphor?


Finally, it had taken nature, not man, in its embodiment as deadly virus to show the fatal limits of his imagination. We were “rounding the corner” on the virus, he assured us. And for these 5,500 mostly unmasked souls we were. They believed him, even those present who might well die of it. But elsewhere there were 220,000 dead and rising caseloads and kids were unable to go to school. Elsewhere people were wearing masks and staying home. Was that the reason we were 5,500 and not 32,000?


“You better vote for me, I got you so many damn car plants.” Those car plants had become the leitmotif of the speech, but they had turned, slowly but inexorably, from a tone of triumph in his salutation to a blunt assertion and now at last to a kind of plea. The note in his voice was unmistakable. He had made the unforgivable error of the cartoon figure who has run out into space and dares to look down. He feared he might lose.


In his plea now I couldn’t help but find a trace of poignancy. He had done so much damage, but had it not been true that we had let him? How much of my life of the last four years had been spent reading and watching and talking Trump Trump Trump? He had taken the adulation and the hatred, too, as a kind of drug, but so had we. And who were we to laugh at his self-estimation as “a very stable genius”? Had he not become president riding nothing but his own con? No, Mexico would not pay for the wall—but who else could have created, out of thin air, such an outlandish and lucrative bit of politics? The bearded Trump: No Bullshit! red-sweatshirt man jostled me again and, looking at the slogan with the caricatured face above it, I recalled a wisp of a definition:


For the bullshitter…is neither on the side of the true nor on the side of the false. His eye is not on the facts at all, as the eyes of the honest man and of the liar are, except insofar as they may be pertinent to his interest in getting away with what he says. He does not care whether the things he says describe reality correctly. He just picks them out, or makes them up, to suit his purpose.

His original purpose, of course, had been to outrage, and to build his brand. That was his art, to capture the imagination—to capture the gaze—and he would go down in history for that. That he had shown the shambolic state of the country in its post–cold war embodiment was a vital consequence. A democracy that brings to office as president a man who receives three million fewer votes than his opponent. A country that preaches advancement based on hard work where median incomes have been nearly frozen for four decades. A nation whose political cleavages run so deep that the polity cannot even agree to wear masks during a deadly pandemic. A people struggling still to put into deed an end to the institutional racism that was meant to be banished by law a half century ago. A population undergoing a painful shift to minority-majority rule where members of the coming white minority use every institutional advantage to cling to power.


After a twenty-year span that should have been a golden age and included instead a stolen election, a terrorist spectacular, disastrous wars of choice in far-off lands, two cataclysmic economic collapses, and a catastrophic pandemic, he had been a kind of cartoon leader shouting and gesticulating and illustrating with frenetic ferocity all we had taken for granted and all that had fallen into ruins. And we had followed every move with the fevered attention of the binge-watcher.


They had begun to leave, though the leader was still speaking. They had gotten what they’d come for, the people in their multifarious Trump paraphernalia. I saw not only the ubiquitous Trump-as-Superman T-shirt—here in red, white, and blue, there in rainbow colors—but Trump as motorcycle gang leader, Trump as Hulk, Trump as Rambo. I stopped someone, asked him if Trump would win. After the initial look of shock, he exclaimed, “Yeah, yeah, no question.” A pause. “Course it depends on how much the other side cheats.”


That was the consensus here. A Trump loss could mean only one thing: widespread and shameless cheating. The narrative was already laid down, elaborated, and well established: there would be an early claim of victory, then a stab-in-the-back narrative as those dubious mail-in ballots piled up. And why not? Trumpism was a movement of resistance, of grievance, of the creative No.


Win or lose, it would remain so—if or until those grievances began to be met. For some, perhaps, it was already too late for that. Walking in I had seen the pistols on hips, here and there an assault rifle. A few weeks later thirteen would be arrested in Michigan for plotting to kidnap, try, and execute Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic governor. Had any of them been at this rally?


Win or lose, the grievances would remain. They could no more be banished from this earth than the imaginary car plants. They would wait, as before, for the leader who would vow his imaginary revenge.


—October 21, 2020