The 2020 Dynamic is Shifting Editor’s Blog – Talking Points Memo / by Josh Marshall

The 2020 Dynamic is Shifting

Editor’s Blog – Talking Points Memo / by Josh Marshall / 3h

September 4, 2019. 

For months now I’ve been in a back and forth with readers over what many have wrongly interpreted as support for Joe Biden. That’s not really right. It’s more like Biden Realism, which I’d describe as a focus on Biden’s apparent strengths despite many people’s wish that they weren’t strengths. The primary polls themselves are inherently volatile and heavily driven by perceptions of electability. That’s not the case with general election polls, which focus on voters who by definition don’t care about “electability.” Those polls have been very, very consistent all year. Specifically, Joe Biden is the only Democrat who consistently bests President Trump by big margins. Most of the others are closer to a tie. The exception is Bernie Sanders who has usually been between Biden and the rest of the pack.

Some people claim those numbers mean next to nothing more than a year from the general election. They’re wrong. When one candidate consistently does significantly better, it suggests they pull an electoral coalition that is different and larger than the others. The fact that things can change does not mean they will change or (more importantly) that they will change to conform to your hopes. But something has shifted over the last month.

As I’ve noted in previous posts, it’s not that Biden is doing so well. It’s more that the other candidates run comparatively soft numbers given President Trump’s persistent and rather intense unpopularity. But we’ve now had two major polls — quality phone polls — that show something a bit different, one from Fox and another just a few days ago from Quinnipiac.

The Fox poll showed the same basic pattern: Biden strongest against Trump with the others further behind. But in this poll from mid-August, all the Democrats held significant leads. Biden (+12), Sanders (+9), Warren (+7) and Harris (+6). Trump was consistently at 39% with everyone except Biden and with Biden he was at 38%.

The new Q poll shows an even starker picture. Biden (+16), Sanders (+14), Warren (+12), Harris (+11) and Buttigieg (+9).

Notably, Trump hasn’t fallen. He’s still basically stuck at 40% or just below. But a slew of what had been undecideds are now saying they’ll vote for the Democrat, whether that’s Warren or Sanders or Harris.

Given the current dynamics of the race, that matters most to Warren since she is now clearly running second in the primary battle and continuing to gain strength — not so much pulling support from Biden as pulling support from other candidates and thus building enough support to challenge Biden head on.

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