Bad Bad Bad Editors’ Blog – Talking Points Memo / by Josh Marshall

Bad Bad Bad

Editors’ Blog – Talking Points Memo / by Josh Marshall / 1h

I haven’t run these numbers myself. But I think JL captures a key issue here. Indeed, I think his analysis understates it, since for well into 2016, large numbers of Republicans were furiously opposed to Donald Trump getting anywhere near the White House. That greatly held down his numbers in late 2015, early 2016 head-to-head match-ups.

In the last 20 polls on RCP, Biden’s average lead vs. Trump is 9.5%. In the 2016 election, once Trump got to the point after Labor Day 2015 that he was being taken at least somewhat seriously, Clinton never had an average lead of 9.5% over 20 consecutive polls.

If you average the five RCP averages (Biden v Trump, v Warren, v Harris, v Sanders, v Buttigieg), you get 49.0 to 43.0. I think that captures the state of the race pretty well and is an awful place to be for Trump. All of the polls, whether it’s approval, head to head, deserves reelection, etc. point to the fact that around 43% of registered voters are prepared to vote for Trump. Some enthusiastically, some not so enthusiastically. Once you get past that 43% Trump will have to scratch and claw for every vote. And once you get past that 43% you’re pretty much dealing with voters who think he’s a corrupt liar and who have significant doubts about the economy. So, the usual Trump BS probably won’t have much of a helpful (to Trump) impact. He’ll be speaking to a skeptical audience and the crazier his tweets and rallies, the more he’ll drive up turnout among the roughly 45% of the country that is desperate to get rid of him.

If the Dems are united, they will win. No idea how to handicap the chances of them being united.

My over/under is good guys by 5 and an electoral rout (maybe 362 EVs). But until we have a clearer picture on the nominee, who the hell knows.

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