The Texas woman arrested for an abortion is a harbinger of what’s to come

The Texas woman arrested for an abortion is a harbinger of what’s to come

Paul Waldman — Read time: 4 minutes

Columnist

The Starr County Jail where Lizelle Herrerra, 26, was charged with murder for allegedly performing what authorities called a “self-induced abortion,” in Rio Grande City, Texas, U.S. April 9, 2022. (Reuters/Jason Garza)

Can you picture a United States where women who get abortions — which about a quarter of women will do at some point in their lives — are routinely arrested and imprisoned for murder? Not just one here or there, but by the hundreds or thousands?

I can’t help but wonder if whichever local law enforcement official who ordered a 26-year-old Texas woman be arrested and charged with murder after a “self-induced abortion” was getting ahead of themselves, thinking that day had already come. The district attorney will be dismissing the charges, since, for now, Texas law doesn’t allow for the prosecution of women for having an abortion, self-induced or otherwise.

But this case isn’t just a mistake or a curiosity. It’s a harbinger — and not just on abortion.

Story continues below advertisement

One of the most important dynamics driving U.S. politics right now is the widening divide between red states and blue states. What has marked the last year in particular is the eagerness of state-level Republicans to push the envelope on policy in ways they hadn’t dared before. And if Republicans take control of Congress in November’s midterm elections, as they are likely to do, the effect on state-level GOP politics will be profound.

The reasons are a little complicated, but before I explain, let’s consider the broader context in which legislators and parties decide how far they want to go on controversial issues.

Both Democrats and Republicans have plenty of policies they’d like to implement, but consider too politically dangerous to attempt. We all have a kind of fantasy world in our heads of what we’d do if there were no political or legal constraints on what could be accomplished. Liberals might want far more restrictive gun laws, comprehensive single-payer health care, and generous family leave for all; conservatives might like to ban all abortions, outlaw labor unions, and replace public schools with an entirely private system.

Story continues below advertisement

But since going that far won’t be possible, lawmakers try to accomplish whatever they can, sometimes more incrementally and sometimes more boldly. What’s happening right now on the Republican side is that their minds have been opened to almost limitless possibility.

It’s happening because of both long-term and short-term trends on the right, but this is a moment of backlash: a Democratic president gets elected, the Republican base gets angry and mobilized, and where Republicans have power — the state level — they’re both pressured by their constituents and sincerely eager to try things they might not have dared not too long ago.

Which is why, for instance, the Oklahoma legislature just passed a blatantly unconstitutional bill outlawing almost all abortions and making performing one a felony punishable by 10 years in prison. Like other recent Republican-passed abortion bills, that law has no exceptions for rape or incest. For years, those exceptions were a standard part of Republican proposals, not because antiabortion conservatives believed in them, but because they were considered politically necessary, so Democrats couldn’t say “Republicans want to force a 12-year-old girl who was raped by her uncle to carry her rapist’s baby to term.”

Story continues below advertisement

Today they’ve stopped worrying about that argument. They still say, “We only want to prosecute the doctor, not the woman who got an abortion. She’s a victim, too.” But how long do you think it will take before the bills they start passing allow women who get abortions to be charged with murder? We can only speculate at this point, but my guess is that once the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade — which could happen in a matter of months — red states will start competing with one another to see who can pass the most draconian abortion ban. And women will start getting arrested.

This new conservative boldness is only going to be intensified if Republicans take the House and/or the Senate in November. Even if such a victory is mainly because people are perturbed about inflation, it will be interpreted as a validation of the new Republican extremism.

Yet such a victory contains the seed of disappointment and frustration. Just as they did after the sweeping GOP wins in 1994 and 2010, the Republican base will quickly realize, to their chagrin, that a Democrat is still president. Republicans in Congress can make his life difficult with investigations and stonewalling, but they won’t be able to pass any legislation on the things their voters care about, at least without their bills being vetoed. Almost inevitably, those base voters will come to view their congressional leaders as weak and ineffectual.

Story continues below advertisement

That will create even more pressure for Republicans to do more where they have the power: at the state level. GOP governors and state legislators will feel the need to go farther than they ever have, to try to create the fantasy world conservatives have in their heads.

And if you think that doesn’t involve throwing women who dare to exercise control of their own bodies in jail, you haven’t been paying enough attention. That’s going to be just the start.