For both politics and the economy, this is our fork in the road

For both politics and the economy, this is our fork in the road

Paul Waldman — Read time: 4 minutes

Columnist

We stand at a political and economic crossroads. Some things about the economy are terrific, while others are terrible. The president seems to get no credit for the former, and only blame for the latter. Our fate for the next few years could be determined by an election only nine months away — and it could go in two very different directions.

Let’s begin with the pessimistic scenario for Democrats. Right now, President Biden would like to claim credit for what has unquestionably been a rapid recovery from the pandemic recession. Economic growth has been extraordinary (5.7 percent gross domestic product growth in 2021), and over 6 million jobs were created last year, more than in any year on record.

Yet only around 40 percent of Americans say Biden is doing a good job on the economy, for a variety of reasons that include inflation, raw partisanship and the fact that we’re working our way out of a very deep hole. Republicans now give lower marks to the economy than they did at the lowest points of the Great Recession or the pandemic recession, as crazy as that is.

The bad scenario for Democrats is that this situation could persist: Even as the recovery continues, a generalized dissatisfaction could prevent voters from feeling good about the state of the country. The pandemic may fade, but it won’t blink out of existence, which could leave those ill feelings circulating like aerosolized particles of misery.

Making that worse, Democrats may continue having a hard time passing anything through Congress that might either alleviate short-term economic problems or create the kind of long-term transformation Biden was hoping for. Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) killed the Build Back Better bill, and there’s no telling what, if anything, may be salvaged from it.

And if Democrats lose one or both houses in the midterm elections, that will be the end of any legislating for the remainder of Biden’s term. All the things he promised when he ran in 2020 — increasing the minimum wage, passing pro-labor laws, creating family leave and universal pre-K, getting closer to universal health coverage — will be done for.

And if you want to really marinate in pessimism, you could even predict that Biden will nonetheless do a reasonable job of shepherding the country through the pandemic and its economic troubles — after which a Republican will become president, destroy the economy yet again and leave it for another Democrat to pick up the pieces.

That could happen in part because Democrats will have proven unable to address the fundamental inequities in the American system that contribute to the widely shared — and correct — feeling that our system is rigged in favor of those with wealth and power.

That’s because, even as we are living through extremely difficult times, the wealthy have only continued to grab a greater share of the pie. Wall Street is doing great; the chief executive of Goldman Sachs got a sweet raise to $35 million last year. Shipping companies jacked up their fees, contributing to inflation — and made record profits. Likewise, Starbucks saw its fourth-quarter profits surge by 19 percent, to over $8 billion — and announced it has no choice but to raise prices because of supply chain disruptions.

All that could contribute to the sense that ordinary people can’t get ahead — precisely what Biden had hoped to change. Then Republican populists — whose actual policy agenda will only exacerbate inequality — will come to the voters and say, “See? These Democrats never did anything for you.”

But that’s only one possible future. Here’s the other potential scenario:

A variety of factors may make this year the exception rather than the rule when it comes to midterm elections. It’s possible that the pandemic will recede significantly as we pass the omicron wave, leading to the kind of widespread optimism we felt for that brief, glorious moment last summer. Inflation could ease while strong job growth continues, allowing Biden to make a case that he’s managing the economy well.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is likely to overturn Roe v. Wade, probably by the summer — a disaster for American women, with the potential result of Democratic voters being more motivated to get to the polls. Republicans may nominate so many deranged Trumpists and enemies of democracy to seek one office after another that the electorate recoils from them.

Which could, if Democrats are really lucky, mean they hold the House and add a couple of seats to their majority in the Senate. Should that happen, they could finally nix the filibuster and pass some of those bills that might give Americans at least some measure of the kind of economic security they now lack.

Either scenario is possible. And which one comes to pass will determine what life looks like for many years to come.