The pro-choice backlash is already brewing

The pro-choice backlash is already brewing

Opinion by 

Paul Waldman

Columnist

Today at 3:43 p.m. EDT

If Republicans had a preferred outcome from the recent Supreme Court decision temporarily greenlighting the new Texas abortion law, it was probably this: It would take effect, outlawing almost all abortions, and the country would promptly move on to other things, sparing the GOP too much political backlash. That is, until the court gets around to overturning Roe v. Wade.

They’ve certainly gotten the first part. Women in Texas who need abortions are now scrambling to try to travel out of state to get them (if they can afford it, which many can’t). But on the second part — avoiding the political backlash — they won’t be so lucky.

Let’s look at some recent polling:

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A Quinnipiac University poll finds 62 percent of Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, 67 percent say they agree with Roe v. Wade, and 83 percent say abortion should be legal when the pregnancy is a result of rape or incest (the Texas law has no rape/incest exceptions).

A Monmouth University poll found 62 percent of Americans say Roe should be kept as is. And 81 percent of respondents opposed the vigilante provision in the Texas law, which allows anyone to sue those who perform an abortion or help a woman get one, and be paid $10,000.

A Marquette University Law School poll found approval of the Supreme Court falling dramatically, mostly among Democrats, since the Texas decision.

There’s one other interesting result: Quinnipiac found that by 54 percent to 35 percent, Americans didn’t think that Roe is likely to be overturned within the next few years. They’re in for a big surprise.

On Dec. 1, the court will hear oral arguments in a case concerning Mississippi’s ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, a case that supporters quite clearly hope will be the vehicle for overturning Roe.

If and when it does, you won’t need vigilante laws. Republican-run states will just outlaw abortion entirely, with no need to concoct some kind of legal legerdemain to prevent the courts from striking the laws down. But in the meantime, Republican state legislators are already moving to create their own copycat versions of the Texas law.

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In Florida, a Republican state representative filed a bill on Wednesday modeled on the one in Texas, complete with a vigilante provision. So far Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), a fervent opponent of abortion rights, is remaining coy. “What they did in Texas was interesting, but I haven’t really been able to look at enough about it,” he says.

We don’t know exactly how lower courts will react to those copycat laws signed between now and when the court issues its opinion in the Mississippi case, which will probably come some time next year. But it’s hard to overstate what an earthquake it will be when that ruling comes down, if it turns out the way most advocates on both sides of the issue expect.

Republican-run states will begin outlawing abortion within days or even hours. Indeed, 11 states have “trigger” laws, which declare that in the event the court overturns Roe, abortion will become illegal in the state; they won’t even have to pass a new law. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) signed a trigger law in June which states that 30 days after Roe is overturned nearly all abortions will become illegal in the state. Doctors who perform them could be sentenced to life in prison.

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Most Americans may not be paying much attention to the grim situation now faced by women in Texas who need to terminate a pregnancy. But when it’s happening in as many as 23 states where a total of 42 percent of Americans live — the number of states where Republicans control the legislature and the governorship — it will be impossible to ignore.

Such a decision from the court would raise many pressing questions. Should the Supreme Court be reformed, through expanding its size or imposing term limits? Should Democrats pass a law in Congress protecting abortion rights through the federal government? What kind of system will spring up to deliver medication abortions to women in states where they’re illegal? Will the issue finally spur Democrats to care about the Supreme Court as much as Republicans do?

If the answer to the last question is yes, it will be because oftentimes voters don’t get motivated until they’re angry and feel they have lost something. At this point, apart from the court preserving Roe, there may be no way to stop that backlash.