The California recall shows how democracy can spin out of control

The California recall shows how democracy can spin out of control

Opinion by 

Paul Waldman

Columnist

Today at 3:30 p.m. EDT

The recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom has begun, and while we ordinarily think of governors being recalled only if they engaged in scandalous behavior or epic mismanagement, that’s not at issue in California. That makes this a good case study in how democracy can get out of control.

While involving the people in decision-making is generally a good thing, if we aren’t careful, the procedures we set up to do so can be hijacked by a determined minority who could never get the public to agree with them otherwise. Which might have a particular resonance these days.

The California recall shows how it can happen. Once opponents of the governor gather signatures equal to 12 percent of the votes cast in the last election, the recall gets on the ballot. Then voters are presented with two questions: First you vote yes or no on whether the governor should be recalled, then you vote for the person you would like to replace him if “yes” gets more than 50 percent.

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The problem is that a “yes” on the first question might represent outrage, or it might just mean “I’m feeling kind of ‘meh’ on him,” which happens to be how a lot of people feel about Newsom.

Here’s where the trouble starts: There are 46 names on the ballot this year, which in theory means that someone could get just 3 percent of the vote and wind up as governor.

That’s unlikely, even if it’s mathematically possible. But what’s much more possible is that the lead vote-getter could wind up with some very small number — 10 or 15 or 20 percent — and win.

Newsom’s popularity has jumped around (especially with the ups and downs in the pandemic), but it has usually been in the 40s or 50s, which is pretty standard for any politician these days. According to polling collected by FiveThirtyEight, only slightly more Californians now favor keeping Newsom than favor discarding him.

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Despite the momentary fascination with Caitlyn Jenner’s candidacy (and its deep concern for the sentiments of private plane owners), the leading replacement candidate now is conservative radio host Larry Elder. His views on issues — among other things, he thinks climate change is a hoax and would like to eliminate the minimum wage and Roe v. Wade — could hardly be more out of step with the state he seeks to govern.

Yet there’s a real chance that Elder could become governor, not because he convinces a majority of Californians that he’s the best choice but through a combination of generalized dissatisfaction with Newsom and the fact that Elder’s lib-owning bona fides from decades on the right-wing airwaves are impeccable. That means he can appeal to a relatively small group of conservative voters who will choose him over his unknown rivals. (Kevin Faulconer, the former mayor of San Diego and one of the only actual politicians running, is Elder’s main competition.)

In a state Joe Biden won by 29 points where the GOP is a desiccated husk of its former self, the best chance Newsom has is to persuade everyone not to think about him so much as they think about party. More specifically, he wants them to think about the Republican Party, and vote against it by choosing no on the recall.

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That’s the main focus of the messaging for Newsom from the likes of Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who says that “Trump Republicans” are “coming to grab power in California.”

Which is actually the most rational way for a Democrat to think about the recall.

There are good reasons Newsom is not that popular, including his failure to deal with the high cost of housing in California and the attendant homelessness problem, and the fact that the state’s response to the pandemic has been spotty. Newsom has been around state politics for a quarter-century, and nobody ever liked him all that much, even when they thought he was doing a reasonably good job. Even when he takes popular positions or seems to be managing things well, Californians I know regard him as little more than overweening ambition in vaguely human form.

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But that doesn’t mean that if you’re a Democrat, the idea of a Republican becoming governor wouldn’t be the worst possible outcome for you. The trouble is that many voters who aren’t attuned to the multistage nuance of the recall process might not quite grasp that. It isn’t hard to imagine that with the delta variant and other problems persisting, a good number of voters could vote yes on the recall just to “send a message” of displeasure.

And then California could have one of the most conservative governors in America. “How did this happen?” people would ask. The answer is that a procedure meant to give the public a voice is far too vulnerable to being taken over by a small minority that can seize power if its timing is right. And that doesn’t sound very democratic.