What’s Behind Trump’s Move in Syria Editors’ Blog – Talking Points Memo / by Josh Marshall

What’s Behind Trump’s Move in Syria

Editors’ Blog – Talking Points Memo / by Josh Marshall / 4h

Since last night I’ve been trying to get my head around President Trump’s abrupt announcement that he has green-lighted a Turkish invasion of northern Syria. Like so many Trump decisions there are multiple and overlapping potential motivations and consequences. It seems to play into the hands of regional adversaries – Russia, Iran and erstwhile treaty ally Turkey. It appears rooted at least in part in President Trump’s hostility not so much to foreign military involvements but in any commitments (military or not) that are not narrowly transactional or of benefit to him.

Last night the White House put out a statement announcing the decision which read like it had been personally dictated by the President – another clue that this was the product of impulse rather than policy.

Notably the statement’s second half suggested one potential reason was a breakdown in negotiations or frustration with European allies over the repatriation of ISIS fighters captured during the conquest of the ISIS ‘caliphate’ and held prisoner in northern Syria by Kurdish militias allied with the United States.

In other words, passive aggressive petulance.

We of course don’t know what was conveyed or promised in the President’s call with Turkish President Erdogan which occurred yesterday and appears to have been the trigger for this decision. Given recent events, almost nothing is outside the realm of possibility for what was discussed.

All of these motivations likely play into the mix. But I suspect there’s one overriding one – one that makes it happen last night as opposed to two months ago or two weeks from now. President Trump feels increasingly threatened. He is struggling to dictate the pace of events rather than react to them – something being the American President usually allows a great ability to do. So this is a warning that he can still break things at will. Especially abroad, he can still take dramatic action with immediate results that others must react to.

We can likely expect a lot more of this as the threat of impeachment and possible (though highly unlikely) removal from office grows.

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