Nancy Pelosi Shouldn’t Normalize Trump’s Worst Behavior by Brendan Nyhan

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Nancy Pelosi Shouldn’t Normalize Trump’s Worst Behavior
Brendan Nyhan
5-6 minutes

The greatest danger of Donald Trump’s presidency is that seemingly abnormal things become seen as normal. After more than 10,000 false or misleading claims, even the president’s outrageous assertions that Democrats support the murder of live infants barely seem newsworthy.

What’s even worse, however, is that other political actors have started to normalize this behavior and adjust their expectations accordingly. First, Republicans acquiesced to Trump’s controversial campaign in 2016. Most stood by when Trump fired the FBI director for investigating him, said there were very fine people on both sides of a white nationalist protest in Charlottesville, and endorsed the physical assault of a journalist. And now, even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — a Democrat who vehemently opposes Trump — is taking behavior that should be unthinkable for an American president as a given.

Since taking back control of the House of Representatives, Pelosi has implored her fellow Democrats to focus on defeating Trump politically rather than impeaching him. Though some members of her caucus support impeachment, the speaker believes it would be divisive and ultimately unsuccessful.

However, Pelosi argued for this view using a political logic that normalizes a potential election challenge. In an interview with New York Times reporter Glenn Thrush, Pelosi voiced concern that Trump would not willingly cede power if he lost by a slim margin. “We have to inoculate against that, we have to be prepared for that,” Pelosi told Thrush. Thrush further reported that “Pelosi has told associates that she does not automatically trust the president to respect the results of any election short of an overwhelming defeat.”

    Pelosi has inadvertently increased expectations of a direct challenge to the American system of government.

There are genuine reasons to worry that Trump might challenge the legitimacy of the election. In 2016, he famously refused to commit to accepting the results of the election if he lost. He has since made a number of “jokes” about extending his time in office. There is no precedent in modern American history for a prolonged election challenge by a losing presidential candidate, which would be dangerous and destabilizing. Even Al Gore stood down and accepted the results of the 2000 election when he lost the Bush v. Gore case in the U.S. Supreme Court (though reports indicate George W. Bush’s campaign was preparing to contest the election if Bush won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College — exactly what ultimately happened to Gore.)

Trump’s refusal to accept the election results would be especially dangerous because he already serves as the commander in chief of the armed forces. Should he refuse to relinquish power, the U.S. could become engulfed in a constitutional crisis that threatens the stability of our democracy. In such a scenario, other political actors would most likely force him to step down, but the process could easily provoke riots and violence. Moreover, Trump would likely base any such challenge on dubious claims of election fraud, which could threaten the perceived integrity of the electoral system and the legitimacy of his successor.

We must make clear that an election challenge is unthinkable. Though Pelosi seeks to prevent such an outcome, her statement increases expectations that Trump will contest the election absent a massive defeat. In trying to hold the line within her caucus against impeachment and argue for the most electable candidate, she has inadvertently increased expectations of a direct challenge to the American system of government.

Pelosi’s argument is especially foolish given our current political context. Trump enjoys a strong economy and faces no major foreign policy crises — circumstances under which presidents are typically reelected. Though his approval ratings remain low, given the strong state of the economy, Democrats are still unlikely to defeat Trump by the large margin that Pelosi has established as the only standard under which Trump will acquiesce. Moreover, no one should concede the point that the validity of an election contest depends on the margin of victory. It is no more legitimate to contest a fairly decided election when a candidate loses by 1% of the vote rather than 5%.

At a time when so many norms are in danger, national leaders should be defending the integrity of our elections, not publicly strategizing about challenges to their legitimacy.