Wednesday, June 2, 2021

A frantic warning from 100 leading experts: Our democracy is in grave danger

A frantic warning from 100 leading experts: Our democracy is in grave danger

Washington Post

Opinion by 

Greg Sargent

Columnist

June 1, 2021 at 10:49 p.m. GMT+9


Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.). (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Image without a caption

Democrats can’t say they weren’t warned.


With yet another GOP effort to restrict voting underway in Texas, President Biden is now calling on Congress to act in the face of the Republican “assault on democracy.” Importantly, Biden cast that attack as aimed at “Black and Brown Americans,” meriting federal legislation in response.


That is a welcome escalation. But it remains unclear whether 50 Senate Democrats will ever prove willing to reform or end the filibuster, and more to the point, whether Biden will put real muscle behind that cause. If not, such protections will never, ever pass.


Now, in a striking intervention, more than 100 scholars of democracy have signed a new public statement of principles that seeks to make the stakes unambiguously, jarringly clear: On the line is nothing less than the future of our democracy itself.


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“Our entire democracy is now at risk,” the scholars write in the statement, which I obtained before its release. “History will judge what we do at this moment.”


And these scholars underscore the crucial point: Our democracy’s long-term viability might depend on whether Democrats reform or kill the filibuster to pass sweeping voting rights protections.


“We urge members of Congress to do whatever is necessary — including suspending the filibuster — in order to pass national voting and election administration standards,” the scholars write, in a reference to the voting rights protections enshrined in the For the People Act, which passed the House and is before the Senate.


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What’s striking is that the statement is signed by scholars who specialize in democratic breakdown, such as Pippa Norris, Daniel Ziblatt and Steven Levitsky. Other well-known names include Francis Fukuyama and Jacob Hacker.


“We wanted to create a strong statement from a wide range of scholars, including many who have studied democratic backsliding, to make it clear that democracy in America is genuinely under threat,” Lee Drutman, senior fellow at New America and a leading organizer of the letter, told me.


“The playbook that the Republican Party is executing at the state and national levels is very much consistent with actions taken by illiberal, anti-democratic, anti-pluralist parties in other democracies that have slipped away from free and fair elections,” Drutman continued.


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Among these, the scholars note, are efforts by GOP-controlled state legislatures everywhere to restrict access to voting in ways reminiscent of tactics employed before the United States became a real multiracial democracy in the mid-1960s:


Republican lawmakers have openly talked about ensuring the “purity” and “quality” of the vote, echoing arguments widely used across the Jim Crow South as reasons for restricting the Black vote.

The scholars also sound the alarm about GOP efforts to deepen control of electoral machinery in numerous states, casting them as a live threat to overturn future elections, and a redoubling of emphasis on extreme gerrymanders and other anti-majoritarian tactics:


In future elections, these laws politicizing the administration and certification of elections could enable some state legislatures or partisan election officials to do what they failed to do in 2020: reverse the outcome of a free and fair election. Further, these laws could entrench extended minority rule, violating the basic and longstanding democratic principle that parties that get the most votes should win elections.

Democracy rests on certain elemental institutional and normative conditions. Elections must be neutrally and fairly administered. They must be free of manipulation. Every citizen who is qualified must have an equal right to vote, unhindered by obstruction. And when they lose elections, political parties and their candidates and supporters must be willing to accept defeat and acknowledge the legitimacy of the outcome.

After noting that all these Republican efforts are threatening those fundamental principles, the scholars warn: “These actions call into question whether the United States will remain a democracy.”


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Crucially, the scholars note that the John Lewis Voting Rights Act — which would restore some protections gutted by the Supreme Court — would be insufficient, and they call for federal protections such as those in the For the People Act, or S.1.


“Just as it ultimately took federal voting rights law to put an end to state-led voter suppression laws throughout the South" in the 1960s, the scholars write, so must federal law step in again:


True electoral integrity demands a comprehensive set of national standards that ensure the sanctity and independence of election administration, guarantee that all voters can freely exercise their right to vote, prevent partisan gerrymandering from giving dominant parties in the states an unfair advantage in the process of drawing congressional districts, and regulate ethics and money in politics.

It is always far better for major democracy reforms to be bipartisan, to give change the broadest possible legitimacy. However, in the current hyper-polarized political context such broad bipartisan support is sadly lacking.

That is the rub. An acceptance that protecting democracy will never, ever, ever be bipartisan, and will happen only on a partisan basis, is fundamental to accepting the reality of the situation that Democrats face.


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We can go back and forth about specific misgivings that some Democrats have about S.1 — see this good Andrew Prokop report for an overview — but the core question is whether Democrats will cross that Rubicon. So doing would lead inevitably to the need to reform or end the filibuster.


Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) is the most visible obstacle here. But an unknown number of other moderate Democrats are also reluctant to cross that Rubicon, and it’s unclear how much effort Biden will put into making that happen.


And so, when these scholars warn that history is watching, those Democrats are the ones who should take heed.


Read more:


Republicans aren’t ‘looking forward.’ They’re stepping into a Jim Crow past.

Republicans aren’t ‘looking forward.’ They’re stepping into a Jim Crow past.

Washington Post

Opinion by 

Dana Milbank

Columnist

June 2, 2021 at 7:50 a.m. GMT+9

Move along, the Republicans say. Nothing to see here.


“I’m looking forward not backward,” says Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.).


“A lot of our members,” affirms Senate GOP whip John Thune (S.D.), “want to be moving forward and not looking backward.”


“We want to be united in looking, moving forward,” offers House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.).


Conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt picked up the theme in his Post column, published Sunday with this subhead: “As the GOP gears up for 2022, it’s not looking back.”


Yet, on the very day that pronouncement of forward motion appeared, Republicans took two giant steps backward.


That day in Texas, the Republican-controlled legislature tried to ram through a bill so flagrantly restricting the ability of Blacks and Latinos to vote that it wouldn’t have been entirely out of place in the Jim Crow era, before the Voting Rights Act of 1965. After Democrats temporarily foiled the plan by walking out and denying the legislature a quorum, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott tried some Lone Star authoritarianism: He threatened to defund the legislature.


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Also Sunday, and also in Texas, former president Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, told a gathering of QAnon followers that a military coup “should” happen in the United States. (Former Trump lawyer Sidney Powell earlier told the assembly that Trump could be “reinstated.”) Taking the stage at the same conference were Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Tex.) and state Republican Party Chairman Allen West, a former congressman. Gohmert, who posed with a self-proclaimed participant in the insurrection, told the QAnon faithful that the Capitol attack wasn’t so bad (he drew laughs for mockingly calling Jan. 6 “a day that will live in infamy”) and that “it wasn’t just right-wing extremists in there.”


This is looking forward? Republicans may not wish to examine the attack on the Capitol, and Trump’s role in it, but they are otherwise pining for the past — and willing to circumvent democracy to restore it.


The Texas legislation proposed to abolish drive-up voting and 24-hour voting, both methods used disproportionately by non-White voters. As The Post’s Amy Gardner reported, Black and Latino voters in Harris County, home to Houston, accounted for more than half of those using such methods, though they are just 38 percent of the electorate. The Texas bill also aimed to ban voting before 1 p.m. on Sundays — directly aiming at the traditional “souls to the polls” get-out-the-vote efforts among Black churchgoers. Republicans also planned to restrict people from driving churchgoers to the polls in such efforts. An earlier draft of the bill even used language about maintaining the “purity of the ballot box” — language once used in defense of White-only voting.


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Such attempts to disenfranchise racial minorities are now commonplace in Republican-controlled states. According to the latest tally by the Brennan Center for Justice, a voting-rights group, at least 14 states have enacted laws this year restricting the right to vote. That’s on pace to set a modern record, with more such bills moving through 18 state legislatures. Among the most infamous new restrictions is Georgia’s law making it illegal for anybody to offer food or drink — even water — to voters waiting in long lines. Such lines exist primarily in Black precincts, because Republicans have reduced the number of polling places and hours of voting in those areas.


The impetus is obvious. The 2020 election showed that if voters turn out in large numbers, Democrats win. This will only become more so as America becomes more multicultural. The Republican response has been to stop non-White people from voting, in the name of stopping nonexistent voter fraud.


Republicans in Congress, for their part, are blocking H.R. 1, the Democrats’ attempt to protect voting rights against such incursions. Republicans are also resisting action on an attempt to restore provisions of the 1965 Voting Rights Act gutted by the Supreme Court’s conservative majority in 2013. Apparently, the Republicans’ idea of “moving forward” is restoring the status quo ante — ante 1965, that is.


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Or maybe even ante 1789. A questioner at the QAnon confab asked Flynn, a retired general, “why what happened in Minamar (sic) can’t happen here,” referring to the military coup in Myanmar.


“No reason, I mean, it should happen here. No reason. That’s right,” Flynn replied.


After a social media uproar, Flynn later walked back his endorsement of the violent overthrow of the U.S. government. But he offered no such retreat from the lies that caused the deadly attack on the Capitol. “Trump won,” he told the QAnon faithful. “He won the popular vote, and he won the electoral college vote.”


And that would be true — if you counted only the votes of White people.


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Read more:


The biggest question in American politics right now

The biggest question in American politics right now

Washington Post

By 

Daniel W. Drezner

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a regular contributor to PostEverything.

June 1, 2021 at 8:00 p.m. GMT+9

Sooo … will the United States be a democracy in 2025 or what?

Donald Trump with retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn during a town hall in Virginia Beach on Sept. 6, 2016. (Evan Vucci/AP)

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After 18 months of multiple impeachments, a pandemic, a social uprising unlike anything seen in the past 50 years, a historic turnout for a presidential election, and a sitting president advocating extralegal action to overturn the certified election results, and a political party that now views that disgraced president as its de facto leader, you can forgive many Americans for suffering a severe case of nerves about the current health of U.S. democracy.


Is the nervousness justified? The behavior of congressional Republicans has not calmed people all that much. Last week, Republicans rejected the creation of a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 Capitol riot because Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) thought the findings would hurt the GOP in the midterms. This comes after McConnell said last month that the GOP was “100 percent [focused] on stopping this new administration.”


There are three interlinked questions at play here. First, will the GOP win more power in the midterms and 2024 election? Second, if the GOP does gain more power, will Republicans use it to thwart a legitimate victory by Democrats? Third, if they do that, what happens?


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The obvious answers to all three questions are disconcerting. Democrats’ control of Congress rests on razor-thin margins. Looking ahead to 2022, it makes sense to believe that Republicans will gain control of one if not both legislative chambers. The 2020 election was good for Republicans in state legislatures, and redistricting should enable them to gerrymander a few more seats in their favor. That plus the traditional bounce that the party out of power receives in the midterms should be enough.


Already, Republicans in red states are acting to restrict the vote and empower GOP-controlled legislatures to supersede an adverse electoral outcome. The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein notes “activists are expressing concern that neither the administration nor Democratic congressional leaders are raising sufficient alarms about the threats to voting rights proliferating in red states, or developing a strategy to pass the national election standards that these groups consider the party’s best chance to counter those threats.”


It’s not only activists. The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser quotes political scientist Daniel Ziblatt, the co-author of “How Democracies Die,” as saying, “Turns out, things are much worse than we expected” and that the current situation is “much more worrisome.” A Republican Party that behaves in this anti-democratic manner but still gains seats in the midterms would certainly be emboldened to curb democratic rights even further.


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As for whether Americans would tolerate such a thwarting of democracy, my mind keeps drifting back to something Tom Pepinsky wrote in early 2017:


The reality is that everyday life under the kinds of authoritarianism that exist today is very familiar to most Americans. You go to work, you eat your lunch, you go home to your family. There are schools and businesses, and some people “make it” through hard work and luck. Most people worry about making sure their kids get in to good schools. The military is in the barracks, and the police mostly investigate crimes and solve cases. There is political dissent, if rarely open protest, but in general people are free to complain to one another. There are even elections. This is Malaysia, and many countries like it …

It turns out that most people express democratic values, but living in a complicated world in which people care more about more things than just their form of government — feeding their families, educating their children, professional success — it is easy to see that given an orderly society and a functioning economy, democratic politics may become a low priority. The answer to the question “will ‘the people’ tolerate authoritarian rule?” is yes, absolutely.

So this all sounds dire. But will it come to this? Both Brownstein and Glasser report that the Biden White House thinks that the best way to handle the GOP’s across-the-board obstructionism is to work on Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), pass what needs to be passed, focus on the issues voters care about, and not get goaded into polarizing fights.


This could work. Biden’s agenda is pretty popular, and his own approval rating has been rock-steady in recent months. Furthermore, there are reasons to believe that the standard midterm penalty might not apply to the Democrats in 2022. An end to the pandemic and a bounce-back economy would help Biden. As Nate Silver pointed out late last week, there are multiple causal mechanisms through which the current GOP is hurting its chances relative to baseline expectations. It is even possible, as CNN’s Harry Enten points out, that Biden has won back the Latino vote that everyone was freaking out about last November.


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If this proves wrong and Republicans gain power and then thwart Biden’s reelection, could Pepinsky be proven correct? It’s certainly possible, but the country has changed in the four years since Pepinsky wrote that essay. It turns out that in the United States a party led by a demagogue inspires more counter-mobilization than anyone thought. Four years of Donald Trump have taught most of those who opposed him not to take anything for granted in politics.


I do worry that anti-democratic Republicans will jerry-rig the system to preserve their power. If I’m being honest, however, what worries me more is how the #MAGA crowd will react if these tactics do not work. What happens if they realize that all their efforts to win power wind up with them having less of it? A recent PRRI poll showed that 28 percent of Republicans polled agree that because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence. Gun purchases are surging. And hardcore #MAGA types are calling for a military coup.


In other words, the next few years will be precarious no matter how Americans vote.


Tuesday, June 1, 2021

Criticizing China isn't racistAnd criticizing Israel isn't antisemitic either.

Criticizing China isn't racist
And criticizing Israel isn't antisemitic either. These are countries; they do things and get criticized

Matthew Yglesias
 Jun 1 

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(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
The latest round of fighting between Israel and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip has coincided with both attacks on Arab citizens of Israel by racist mobs and a surge in antisemitic violence in major cities around the world.

These are obviously related events in both cases. What’s a little less obvious is the extent to which international conflict actually inspires racist violence versus simply providing a pretext for it. But certainly, hawks have mobilized to draw a straight line between political criticism of Israel and violence against Jewish Americans.

I think everyone on the left who is halfway sensible sees that there is some kind of connection here and a need for some discourse-policing. At the same time, I think all progressives are going to fundamentally agree with Michelle Goldberg that we can’t let the Israeli government “shut down criticism of the country as anti-Semitic.”

Batya Ungar-Sargon, an opinion editor at Newsweek, sees something hypocritical in this, given how progressives have understood the link between right-wing rhetoric and anti-Asian violence.

Twitter avatar for @bungarsargon
Batya Ungar-Sargon 
@bungarsargon
If you blamed violent attacks against Asian Americans on Trump calling covid the "Chinese virus" but you can't see how congresswomen accusing Israel of terrorism might result in Jews being attacked by pro Palestinian mobs, you either can't think or you have a problem with Jews.
May 20th 2021

858 Retweets2,820 Likes
I would read this the other way — the criticism of Trump was overblown, the link to violence very unclear, and the motive for the double standard is almost certainly that progressives have a big problem with Donald Trump rather than with Jews.

Indeed, during the recent resurgence of discussion of the lab leak hypothesis, Apoorva Mandavilli, one of The New York Times’ lead Covid reporters, took the view that the lab leak theory has “racist roots” and we should therefore avoid discussing it.


This strikes me as a move toward intellectual and political paralysis. It’s clearly true that it is difficult, in practice, to hermetically seal strong criticism of Israel from attitudes toward the Jewish people, and there is a real possibility of spillover from criticism of the People’s Republic of China into racism against Asian Americans. At the same time, these are real states that do real things. I’m pairing the Israel and China examples because nobody that I’m aware of consistently upholds the principle “don’t criticize the state lest it has spillover consequences” in both of these cases. And the reason nobody upholds the principle is because it’s unworkable and unreasonable — the kind of thing you invoke opportunistically but don’t actually live by.

Lab leak theory is not racist
I think this is a particularly odd intervention in the lab leak debate, because while I don’t think the alternative theory — it’s a disease of zoonotic origin that crossed over to humans in a Chinese market — is in any way immune to the same basic concerns.

In the case of the market hypothesis, you can of course have a restrained and careful policy critique about the management of these institutions and the risks they pose to human health. Here’s a good video that Vox made based on market hypothesis, the known risks and regulatory issues, and what I do think remains the majority view among virologists that this is where SARS-Cov-2 came from.


At the same time, When Liz Cheney fires back at the Chinese foreign minister by saying “how about you stop eating bats,” that is not being incredibly sensitive. Paul McCartney was on Howard Stern’s radio show last spring and said “let’s face it, it is a little bit medieval eating bats.”

I have grown a bit leery of throwing around charges of racism. But Cheney is flinging a kind of vague collective aspersion on Chinese people, and McCartney is very specifically deriding Chinese cultural practices. Amazon is currently selling a “stop eating bats” novelty shirt. If I see you wearing this shirt, I am going to think that you are an asshole. Again, not because “viruses cross over to humans due to poor management at wildlife markets” is an absurd or racist thing to believe. But because the phrasing and framing cast it as a kind of general injunction based on the (to the best of my knowledge, false) idea that bat-eating is some incredibly widespread Chinese practice that generates some kind of collective guilt.


Long story short, the virus came from somewhere, and that somewhere is pretty clearly in China. Given that, any possible account of virus origins is going to have something to do with China. So whatever theory you come up with, you can come up with a way of casting it as implying collective guilt on the part of Chinese people or ratcheting up tensions with the Chinese government. My advice on the collective guilt part would be not to do that. As to the Chinese government, it depends more on the facts. But the answer obviously can’t be “never get mad at the Chinese government no matter what.”

The curious case of the “China virus”
Here I want to take a little detour into the World Health Organization’s somewhat odd 2015 decision to promulgate new guidelines on disease-naming:


My guess is that most of us were not paying much attention when these guidelines came out, but they became the basis for a subsequent political controversy in the United States. The stated policy goal here is to “minimize unnecessary negative impact of disease names on trade, travel, tourism or animal welfare, and avoid causing offence to any cultural, social, national, regional, professional or ethnic groups.”

I will admit that it never occurred to me to think of “Lyme disease” as potentially inciting hatred against people from Lyme, Connecticut, or the greater New England region. You can see why, though — from a tourism and marketing perspective — people would prefer not to have a gruesome disease named after their locale. Even though Wuhan is a large city, it’s one that most of us in the West had probably not heard of before this pandemic, and being mentally associated in everyone’s minds with a deadly pandemic is going to be bad for their tourism prospects. That being said, we all know the virus arose in Wuhan even though we didn’t call it “Wuhan Fever” or “Hubei Respiratory Syndrome,” so it’s not totally clear to me what was accomplished here.

That said, once the decision is made to call it SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, those are the names, and if you’re running around insisting on “China virus” (which is hardly in line with the traditional place names anyway) or worse, “kung flu,” then you pretty clearly are in fact trying to be an asshole.

Trump’s true bad act wasn’t about the name, though, it was about anti-Asian hate crimes. I don’t want to overly idealize George W. Bush, but it is true that after 9/11, he tried to tamp down anti-Muslim backlash and reassure the American Muslim community. I don’t think we should pin a medal on his chest for it; the point is that’s normal presidential behavior. Trump was never able to connect with the idea of providing symbolic leadership for people who didn’t vote for him, so he screwed the pooch on this and many other aspects of a traumatic pandemic experience.

“Don’t criticize China” doesn’t work
Notwithstanding Bush’s efforts to be decent, the “war on terror” concept clearly did end up empowering Islamophobic politics. And from the beginning, the drive to invade Iraq relied on a lazy conflation of disparate Middle Eastern and Islamic countries and political trajectories.

My friend Spencer Ackerman, whose forthcoming book plumbs this terrain, had a similar reaction to the general question of US-China tensions.

Twitter avatar for @attackerman
Spencer Ackerman 
@attackerman
Your “Great Power Competition” with China, the new Cold War that you think will mean some fantasy national renewal or the Great Struggle for Freedom in The 21st Century or whatever will get your Asian-American neighbors murdered and you will deny the connection.
March 17th 2021

646 Retweets2,738 Likes
And Nina Luo wrote something similar at greater length for The New Republic:

In recent decades, the defense industry has perfected this rhetoric to make the case for war on China. Republicans and Democrats—including both President Biden and even our most progressive members of Congress—amplify the warmongering and push for increased defense spending. There is no violence like the mass rape and murder of war, yet in this moment of outcry against anti-Asian violence, lawmakers in D.C. are bringing us to the brink of global conflict. Asian and Pacific Islander peoples around the world—who are, like my grandparents living in China, often loved ones of people here—will suffer that violence. And as in all wars, the enemy abroad becomes the enemy at home, making Asian Americans at home once again the target of state and community brutality.

This is obviously not a totally irrational fear. The war between the United States and Japan in the 1940s led to horrifying and totally unjustifiable human rights abuses against Japanese Americans.

That being said, the problem with FDR’s internment policy was the internment policy. If you had some kind of time machine and could voyage to the 1940s and try to fix things, what you would try to do is have less racist hysteria and cruelty. Going back in time to try to say the U.S. shouldn’t respond militarily to the attack on Pearl Harbor would be bizarre. This is just to say that while racist backlash is bad, it can’t be the controlling consideration in every national security conversation.

And ultimately the problem with Bush’s vision of a “war on terror” is that the policy goals were wild and unachievable. His idea was that the joint invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan would unleash a wave of democratization that transformed the region for the better, but what actually happened was lots of destabilization and fighting and very little positive change. By the same token, the reason conservatives like Mike Pompeo are so willing to call Ilhan Omar antisemitic for her criticisms of Israel is that Pompeo thinks Israel is right on the merits. He’s not in fact hyper-sensitive to antisemitism or offensive language; he’s just wielding this talking point in defense of a country he thinks doesn’t deserve criticism.

Luo, too, turns out to just disagree with hawkish China policies:

China is not a threat because it’s attacking U.S. soil. China is a threat because it threatens American global hegemony. Here the underlying logic of Yellow Peril becomes clear. Proliferating the false idea that China will take over the West rationalizes starting conflict in the Asia-Pacific; this nearly perfectly parallels the geopolitical theater of a century ago. The Yellow Peril, the faceless horde, the ever-growing yellow population, an existential threat to the West, to liberal human rights, to the market economy, to the “rules-based” order, to American primacy.

Taking a step back, I think there is something to Luo’s point. American policymakers often fail to exhibit what Robert Wright calls “cognitive empathy.”

We are the ones who have military bases in Japan and Korea.

We are the ones who most clearly trampled the “rules” of the international order by invading Iraq.

We are the ones who contributed most to the historical stock of greenhouse gas emissions.

We are the ones with the gigantic nuclear arsenal.

I think we owe it to ourselves and the world to look at things from a Chinese perspective and not paint a major country’s desire to influence the region it inhabits as pathological when it’s actually very normal.

That being said, China is conducting some pretty egregious human rights abuses at home. And they are using the size of their domestic market to get western multinationals to crack down on criticism of those abuses here in the United States and Europe. They are messing with Vietnamese territorial claims, they’re fighting on the border with India, they’re getting into naval disputes with the Philippines — it’s a lot. It is good and important for American leaders to go out of their way to safeguard the interests of Asian Americans while addressing these disputes. But the idea that anti-racism requires American leaders to ignore these interests doesn’t make sense.

American nationalism isn’t racism
Jacobin ran an article last year complaining that “Last week, Joe Biden’s campaign released an attack ad in which the senescent septuagenarian attempted to out-racist Trump.”

The ad is certainly nationalistic and maybe a bit demagogic, but to construe it as racist is, I think, a kind of fundamental misunderstanding.


In 1868, Horatio Seymour’s presidential campaign had posters that literally said “This is a white man’s country; let white men rule,” and even though he lost, that underlying sentiment has in fact fueled a lot of policy over the years. But the correct view has always been the view of Seymour’s opponent, Ulysses S. Grant, or that of Thaddeus Stevens and the proponents of the 14th Amendment. We had the Chinese Exclusion Act, but then later we had the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act. Barack Obama serves as president for eight years. Kamala Harris is vice president today.

America is not a “race” and American nationalism vis a vis China or anyone else isn’t racism.

I try not to obsessively tout my book too much, but this is part of the point of “One Billion Americans.” America is a country whose traditions and patriotic self-image support immigration and integration in an unusually strong way, and America is also a place that people want to live in. If we give visas to people who’d like to depart post-democratic Hong Kong, many of them will take us up on that offer. Nobody is angling to move to China, despite their real economic successes over the past 30 years. We should not blunder into stupid conflicts with China, but we should engage in reasonable diplomacy with China’s neighbors, stand up for the right of American citizens to criticize China’s human rights record, and try to remain the most important economy in the world.

With respect to issues like the Covid pandemic, we should of course pursue our interests vigorously — while also being realistic that China is a giant country that we can’t really push around or force to do much of anything. But most of all, we can’t just reduce international relations to American racial politics. Israel is a real, albeit small, country, and when it does controversial stuff, people are going to complain. China is also a real, much larger country that does lots of bad stuff. Normal people — including people of all races — are going to get upset about it, and that’s as it should be.


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Big Mac-ghazi

Big Mac-ghazi

Enjoy the long Weekend


Matthew Yglesias

May 31


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(Photo by Daveynin)

Happy Memorial Day!


As it’s a holiday, in lieu of a real post I am simply going to treat you to an extended complaint about a random New Yorker article titled “The Best Burger to Eat Right Now” about a place called Smashed NYC that sounds pretty tasty.


The lead of their story is about a menu item called the Big Schmacc which as you might imagine is designed to be a burger done in the style of a Big Mac, except upscale like you might get written up in the New Yorker. I have bolded a key sentence for effect.


A big part of what makes the Big Mac appealing in pictures,” a burger aficionado I know mused the other day, “is that the patties extend past the perimeter of the bun. But then you actually get one, and most of the time you can barely even see the patties.” We were sitting outside Smashed NYC, a new burger shop on the Lower East Side. He peeled back the black-and-white checkered wax paper folded around the Big Schmacc, a highlight of the menu. Two thin jagged-edged disks of deeply browned ground beef hung floppily over the limits of three halves of Martin’s “Big Marty’s” sesame roll; there was clear visual evidence, too, of sharp-cornered, barely melted slices of American cheese, shredded iceberg lettuce, crinkle-cut pickle coins, and Creamsicle-colored Smash Sauce. “This is what it’s supposed to look like,” he explained, with the authority of a biologist.


I confess that I’ve never tried a Big Mac—because I’ve seen what it looks like in real life. (It’s better not to gaze directly upon the beef, which tends to take on a gray tone.) But I imagine that the Big Schmacc is also what the Big Mac—which McDonald’s introduced in the hope of attracting adult customers, and once advertised as “a meal disguised as a sandwich”—is supposed to taste like: a sandwich carefully layered to provide a uniform, balanced medley of charred, smoky fat, mellow cream, gentle tang, crunch, salt, and just a hint of sweetness in every bite. Unlike at McDonald’s, where the burgers are precooked and reheated, at Smashed your burger is made to order, pressed flat and seared on an extremely hot griddle until it becomes a marvel of the Maillard reaction, umami sparks flying as amino acids and reducing sugars collide, coalescing into a crunchy golden crust.


I don’t understand how you write this line in this story.


For starters: Who has never tried a Big Mac? If you’re a lifelong vegetarian — fine. Or if you’re just a profoundly incurious person — also fine, I guess. But you shouldn’t be so incurious. It’s a good idea to try things.


There are limits to the curiosity principle. One time when I was in Chicago I went to Alinea because I’d heard it was amazing and I was curious. It was, in fact, amazing. But a dinner for two there with wine costs hundreds of dollars. It’s not something you should just go do if you don’t think that you would enjoy it. It’s a very expensive restaurant.


But a Big Mac is cheap. And they are ubiquitous. There is a McDonald’s five minutes from Smashed NYC on Delancy Street. There is a McDonald’s two blocks from The New Yorker’s office. If you are even slightly curious about the world you should buy a Big Mac sometime and take a bite or three. Decide what you think. Personally, I think a Quarter Pounder is way better and also all the McDonald’s burgers are pretty bad but the fries or great and there’s some excellent breakfast options. Kids enjoy the Happy Meal. If you don’t like the Big Mac after two bites, you can just throw it away.


Now some people’s reaction to this was it’s a showy snob thing, like the people who (pre-streaming) would be all “I don’t even own a television.” So, fine. You’re a snob. You wouldn’t be caught dead in a McDonald’s.


The problem is that this is a professional work of journalism whose subject is a restaurant doing a riff on a Big Mac. Experience eating Big Macs is so directly relevant to executing the story, that the author had to go out of her way to mention that she’s never had a Big Mac. But so do the reporting! Buy yourself a Big Mac and explain the difference between the two. It’s not like this is some kind of impossible assignment — where will I find a Big Mac? How will I get the expense approved?


Years ago, Kenji Lopez-Alt did an article for Serious Eats about his mission to build an improved version of the Big Mac. A key line of his story is “the first step was to take a close look at the original sandwich to determine exactly what needs improving.” Makes sense, right?


Regular programming will resume tomorrow.

Two cheers for modest economic growth. Three for Biden’s honesty about it.

Two cheers for modest economic growth. Three for Biden’s honesty about it.

Washington Post

Opinion by 

Catherine Rampell

Opinion by Catherine Rampell

Columnist covering economics, public policy, immigration and politics


President Biden delivers remarks at the White House on May 20. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post)

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The public has gotten so used to politicians lying that it’s apparently now a liability when they don’t.


Or so it appears from the GOP reaction to the Biden administration’s budget proposal, which forecasts only mediocre (that is: realistic) economic growth over most of the next decade.


I’ve previously offered a rule of thumb for evaluating politicians’ economic proposals: The more economic growth a politician promises, the worse their policies probably are. That’s because predicting turbocharged growth suggests they need turbocharged growth to get their budget numbers to add up. Faster economic growth, after all, means people and businesses earn more income and so remit more tax revenue; it also means less government spending on means-tested programs such as food stamps.


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Plugging in Pollyanna-ish growth forecasts therefore helps paper over the large deficits that would show up under more realistic assumptions.


Assuming gangbusters growth to tidy away large deficits is a time-tested political tradition. Ronald Reagan famously employed his “Rosy Scenario” in the 1980s. So have many politicians since, on both the left and right.


Growth in more recent decades has slowed, due to reasons mostly outside a president’s control — chiefly, the aging of the population and slowing growth in productivity. But that didn’t stop, say, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) from boasting that his presidential agenda would produce 5.3 percent economic growth, or more than double the roughly 2 percent long-term pace that the Federal Reserve and others had forecast.


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Republicans have offered similarly extravagant promises.


When Donald Trump was first elected, his transition team ordered White House economic staffers to forecast sustained growth of 3 to 3.5 percent in budget documents and then backfill all the inputs needed to produce that result. (Not how forecasting usually works.) Even that book-cooking was less brazen than Trump’s usual promises. As president, he pledged sustained economic growth of “4, 5 and even 6 percent.” Such figures allowed him to (falsely) claim that his expensive fiscal policies, such as the 2017 tax cuts, would pay for themselves.


In reality, economic growth under Trump pre-pandemic was not appreciably different from that during Barack Obama’s second term (2.5 percent vs. 2.3 percent), though Republicans usually describe Obama’s growth record as tepid and Trump’s as tremendous. Presidents can affect things only on the margin (by tweaking the tax code, encouraging more labor-force attachment and skill-upgrading, admitting additional working-age immigrants, etc.).


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Which brings us to President Biden’s approach to this question, as shown in the fiscal 2022 budget released Friday.


Given that the White House put out its budget just before a holiday weekend, Biden clearly wasn’t hoping for much media scrutiny. Perhaps understandably: His staff projected growing deficits and debt, with total debt held by the public hitting a record 110 percent of gross domestic product this year and reaching 117 percent by 2031.


There was, however, another detail that some media outlets and Republicans seized on: his relatively modest economic growth assumptions.


The administration projected strong growth this year and next — 5.2 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively — as the economy bounces back from the pandemic recession. But over the rest of the decade, it estimated, the economy will grow only about 1.8 to 2.2 percent each year. That’s roughly in line with forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve. At best it’s a few tenths of a percentage point higher, which is an optimistic but still reasonable estimate for how much a president’s agenda might affect growth trends.


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To Republicans, this judicious forecast — this failure to grossly exaggerate or lie — is somehow damning.


“The Return of the Bad Old Days with Slow Growth: The Obama-Biden administration famously accepted slow growth as America’s ‘new normal’ while pursuing policies that sent jobs overseas,” sneers a blog post from Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee. “President Biden appears to be lowering the bar even further.” They’re judging Biden against Trump’s preposterous promises, rather than Trump’s actual record.


For their part, Biden aides have halfheartedly resisted such criticisms. They note that the protracted budgeting process required calculating economic growth forecasts in February — that is, before Biden’s infrastructure and family proposals were fully developed, and when the covid-19 recovery looked more uncertain. In a call with reporters Friday, Council of Economic Advisers Chair Cecilia Rouse suggested that staff forecasts might be more optimistic if calculated today. She also pointed out that even small increases in annual growth rates, when compounded, can have large cumulative effects.


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All the same, the White House was brave enough to publish its seemingly modest projections. And since I’ve spent several years criticizing politicians for fudging their forecasts, I’ll happily praise this rare moment of fiscal forthrightness. Two cheers for moderate economic growth, which is mostly beyond the president’s control — but three for honesty, which falls squarely within it.


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Republicans are fighting against democracy — and the future

Republicans are fighting against democracy — and the future

Washington Post

Opinion by 

Paul Waldman

Columnist

June 1, 2021 at 1:40 a.m. GMT+9

Texas State Rep. Ron Reynolds speaks at a news conference at the state Capitol on Sunday. (Jay Janner/AP)

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Texans like to brag that things are bigger in their state. It seems that goes for attacks on free and fair elections. In a year in which Republican state legislatures across the country are working to make voting more difficult, Texas moved ahead of other states with what may be the most draconian voter-suppression bill we’ve seen so far.


But on Sunday night, as the midnight end of the legislative session approached, Democratic lawmakers staged a walkout that deprived the body of a quorum and killed the bill. It was a moral victory — but only a temporary one because the governor will now likely call a special session at which the bill can be passed.


Texas Republicans will not be denied. In all but declaring war on democracy, they and their colleagues in other states are mounting a rearguard action against an evolving electorate, freezing GOP power in place so voters in two or four or 10 years won’t be able to translate their own preferences into action.


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That would be bad enough on its own. But their chosen method not only makes voting more difficult for certain Americans but also sets the conditions for electoral chaos. These Republicans want local election officials to be vilified, harassed, intimidated and even targeted for prosecution, a process that could end with elections being simply thrown out if Republicans don’t win. If you thought the 2020 election was a mess, just wait until you see what they have in store.


The suppression measures aimed at voters themselves — limiting early-voting hours, forbidding the use of dropboxes, making it harder for people to give other people rides to the polls — have gotten much of the attention. But as in other states, the Texas bill would go after local officials, not only by forbidding them from deciding how to run their own elections without the permission of the legislature but also by creating personal criminal and civil liability for them if they failed to comply with any of the new rules.


And as has happened in close to 20 other states, the Texas bill would expand the rights of partisan poll watchers to inject themselves into the process of both voting and counting votes. It’s a recipe for chaos — which is exactly the point.


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Partisan poll watchers already have the right to observe certain parts of the voting process, but rules usually require them to do so without creating a disruption. But given how Republicans now encourage their supporters to believe that fraud and conspiracy are the default in every election, what do you think will happen when they unleash their army of poll watchers who will have the right to go almost everywhere they want, not only at polling places but also in the more secure locations where the counting of votes takes place?


You only have to look at the lunacy in Arizona, where a Republican “audit” of Maricopa County involves holding ballots under ultraviolet lights and searching them for traces of bamboo (because, I kid you not, that might reveal a conspiracy involving the Chinese) to see where this could lead. Election officials trying to do their jobs will be constantly harassed by mobs of unhinged QAnon followers and other extremists bent on “proving” that nefarious goings-on are afoot.


In the Arizona case, it’s happening long after the election ended. But what if that’s what we see in state after state while the votes are still being counted?


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The wild allegations of those poll watchers will then be used by Republican legislators, and maybe even the right Republican judge, to declare that untold numbers of votes were “illegal” and therefore an election is void. Any election in which a Democrat wins will be met with a furious effort to undo it so that Republicans can retain power.


If that sounds unlikely, consider this provision of the Texas bill — which, to repeat, may be on hold for now but is almost certain to be enacted in some form soon:


If the number of votes illegally cast in the election is equal to or greater than the number of votes necessary to change the outcome of an election, the court may declare the election void without attempting to determine how individual voters voted.

The bill doesn’t define what it means for a vote to be “illegally cast,” but we saw how Donald Trump routinely claimed that millions of votes were “illegal” if he suspected they were cast for his opponents. It isn’t at all far-fetched to imagine a Republican judge deciding, based on allegations from Republican poll watchers, that a close election for president or any other office contained too many “illegal” votes and is therefore void.


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Now let’s pull back to look at the big picture. Though it’s happening in Republican-run states all over the country, it’s no accident that Texas, Georgia and Arizona are at the center of these efforts to undermine democracy. What do they have in common? They’re all states run by Republicans that are trending Democratic — unless those who are currently in charge change the rules so the voters don’t much matter any more.


These states have been moving in an unmistakable direction. In 2012, Barack Obama lost all three badly despite cruising to reelection: He lost Texas by 16 points, Georgia by eight points and Arizona by 10. Then in 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in all three, but by smaller margins: Nine points in Texas, five points in Georgia and 3.5 points in Arizona. Then in 2020, Trump won Texas again, but by only 5.6 points. He narrowly lost both Georgia and Arizona. Not only that, both Georgia and Arizona had two Senate races in 2020 because of early retirements — and Democrats won all four.


The Republican legislators and governors in these states know very well what kind of threat the future poses for them. A combination of factors — immigration from outside the United States, migration of more liberal voters from within the country, the replacement of more conservative older voters with more liberal younger voters — is pushing all their electorates to the left.


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But for now, they still hold the legislatures and governor’s mansions. So they’re going to use the power they have today to try to make it impossible for the voters to take their power away tomorrow.


This is a battle over which party gets to rule. But more importantly, it’s about whether we have a democracy at all, whether all citizens are allowed to vote and the system respects their decisions. That hasn’t always been true in the past. And if some people get their way, it won’t be true in the future.


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