Monday, February 18, 2019

Trump’s dictator move is the real emergency — and we handed him the keys | by Will Bunch


Posted: February 17, 2019 - 1:47 PM


by Will Bunch


Trump’s dictator move is the real emergency — and we handed him the keys | Will Bunch 

So this is how liberty dies — with a rambling, incoherent monologue. President Trump’s bizarre — and, to be brutally honest, frightening — Friday morning appearance in the Rose Garden of the White House to announce that he’s invoking extreme presidential powers to declare a “national emergency” and build border wall that Congress refused to authorize was, in many ways, that moment that Trump’s harshest critics warned about after his shock election as our 45th president.

And yet it was striking that when Trump’s dictator move finally came, there was a lot more banality than evil. After all, our general experience in conceptualizing an authoritarian power grab comes from the History Channel and grainy newsreels of 1930s’ autocrats thumping their chests. This was something else — in every sense of the phrase.

The import of what Trump was actually doing — triggering one of the most significant constitutional crises in American history — was buried in the alarming incoherence of the delivery. Instead of making the case for his bogus “national emergency," the short-fingered-vulgarian-in-chief presented an urgent argument for the 25th Amendment, the procedure for removing a president who is unwell.

There were so many moments in Trump’s unscripted and unhinged address that could have been a major scandal — had it been any other president, or had the bombshells not dropped at a rate of one every 10 seconds or so. For example, describing his conversation with China’s President Xi in a racist pidgin English — not to mention the authoritarian sentiment he endorsed in the riff, which was executing drug dealers. Or the most anti-free-president in U.S. history yelling at a journalist to “Sit down!!"
Protesters of President Donald Tump's national emergency declaration gather outside Trump International Hotel & Tower on Friday, Feb. 15, in New York. Some people have been arrested at the protest. The NYPD wasn't immediately able to say how many people were taken into custody.
Frank Franklin II / AP
Protesters of President Donald Tump's national emergency declaration gather outside Trump International Hotel & Tower on Friday, Feb. 15, in New York. Some people have been arrested at the protest. The NYPD wasn't immediately able to say how many people were taken into custody.

We shouldn’t give Trump a free pass for all that craziness, but it’s critical not to take our eye off the ball. After a long era in which U.S, presidents have expanded and occasionally violated America’s constitutional limits on executive power, Trump has plowed through that democratic guardrail at 100 mph, and any system of checks and balances now teeters on the edge of the abyss. It’s wrong not to recognize there’s a history of POTUS power grabs (more on that in just a second), but this kicks it up several notches. Never before has a president claimed authority to spend money on a project that had been so clearly rebuffed by Congress, the branch of government that is supposed to control the government’s purse strings.

I’m not going to waste a lot of time here on the obvious: Trump’s national emergency is fake. Unauthorized border crossings — the raison d’etre for such a bold measure — are actually at their lowest levels in years. Indeed, Trump invoked a plethora of outright lies about the sources of illicit drugs and other made-up statistics to justify what is nothing more than a campaign promise to please his xenophobic base. The only crisis on the southern border is a humanitarian crisis — the increased flow of refugees fleeing crime-ridden Central America, coupled with increasingly inhumane treatment by the American government.

Indeed, the unbearable fakeness of Trump’s national emergency has led to overconfidence that it will be reversed — either by Congress (although that would require some profiles-in-courage type stuff from GOP representatives that we haven’t seen in decades) or the Supreme Court (although Mitch McConnell and Trump have tipped that scale to the right). I have no such confidence.

Trump’s autocracy play didn’t come out of nowhere. Like the proverbial frog in a pot of boiling water, we’ve been soaking in the hot tub time machine of an increasingly imperial presidency for at least three-quarters of a century, and Congress, the courts and, yes, the voters — us — have been OK with every dial turn of the stove. That’s created a legal momentum that will make Trump hard to stop.

Take a step back into history, to 1973 — the year that Watergate exploded. The historian and confidante to Democratic presidents Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. put the phrase “the imperial presidency” at the front of the national conversation that fateful year with a best-selling book of the same name. Schlesinger, who’d been an FDR adviser, traced the evolution from a shockingly low-key presidency of the 19th- and even early 20th century to the executive branch’s explosion with the New Deal. Then came World War II and the so-called national security state, with increasing power vested in the president’s National Security Council, the military-industrial complex, and spies secretly overthrowing governments from the Congo to Guatemala to Iran.

Watergate’s exposure of the abuses of power by Richard Nixon and the 37th president’s downfall were supposed to be a happy ending to the story of the imperial presidency. The scandal and Nixon’s 1974 resignation spurred on Democratic reformers to enact a flurry of legislation to restore the checks and balances that the Founding Fathers had intended.

The best known is the 1973 War Powers Act, which requires a president to seek congressional approval for any extended military engagement. Another that received too little attention — until the last two months or so — was the National Emergencies Act of 1976. What that bill essentially did was give the president some more leeway to take certain executive actions — like imposing economic sanctions on alleged rogue foreigners, or move military dollars around — but also created a new mechanism for Congress supposedly to make sure a president never assumed dictatorial powers.

But something went wrong. More than four decades later, the U.S. military is engaged in more conflict in more nations than any time in our history (Yemen, Somalia, Africa), with arguably none of this properly authorized by Congress. And now the president has used the 1976 emergencies law for exactly the kind of gross abuse of power the law was intended to prevent. What happened? By creating a new framework for Congress to check presidential power — and then lacking the political will, or courage, to ever invoke it — the laws had the unintended effect of strengthening the imperial presidency. That’s because when presidents exceeded their authority and weren’t challenged, excessive authority was now normalized.

Odd as this sounds, you can at least credit Trump for being fairly open and transparent about Friday’s power grab. Not so with the Ronald Reagan administration, which reacted to an explicit congressional ban on aid to Nicaraguan rebels, the Boland Amendment, with a scheme to conduct secret, unlawful trading of weapons with our adversaries in Iran in an effort to free hostages, and then funnel the profits to Nicaragua’s contras. Not only was Reagan not impeached for this end run around Congress — the Iran-Contra scandal — but the key aides who were convicted of crimes were pardoned by Reagan’s veep-turned-successor, George H.W. Bush. Virtually no one raised a peep about the pardons — which arguably set the stage for future abuses of presidential power.

George W. Bush faced an actual national emergency in 9/11 — which was the excuse for a string of abuses of power that included a deceitful campaign to attack people who had nothing to with the 2001 terror attacks, imposing an unprecedented regime of domestic spying on Americans, violating both international conventions and U.S. law on torture, and creating a concentration camp at Guantanamo Bay. None of this was seriously challenged. Bush 43′s presidency also included a major increase in the use of so-called signing statements — declarations that he wouldn’t follow various acts of Congress.

How did presidents get away with this? A lot of it had to do with the partisan fault lines that have emerged since Watergate. As the most politically engaged folks — including the electorate — grew more partisan, people cared not about process but about outcomes. They only wanted to win. During Bush 43′s reign, many of us warned that if Congress and the courts didn’t restrain the out-of-control executive branch, it would be foolish to expect a Democratic POTUS to roll things back.

Arguably, Barack Obama proved us right.

Not only did the Obama administration not hold their predecessors accountable for breaking so many laws, but the 44th president fulfilled those worst fears by expanding some of the abuses of the Bush-Cheney era — firming up the notion of targeted assassinations by flying death robots and bringing the nebulous “war on terror” and its dubious justification to new regions of the planet. He even continued "signing statements.' Thwarted by McConnell and the rest of Congress on his domestic agenda, Obama increasingly turned to executive fiat to keep “Dreamers” in the United States, act on climate change, and implement parts of Obamacare. Most liberals praised Obama because they liked the policies — instead of questioning how a future demagogue might up the ante.

It seemed that only a few historians and legal scholars sounded the alarm bells. “For decades, Congress frittered away control over its authority, including the power of the purse,” wrote George Washington University constitutional expert Jonathan Turley, who fully expects Trump to prevail on the wall “emergency.” The Princeton historians Kevin M. Kruse and Julian E. Zelizer, authors of a new modern American history called Fault Lines, argued in an op-ed that even though the Robert Mueller criminal probe may restrain Trump, “it’s important to remember that the ‘imperial presidency’ will outlive any one president unless more is done to institute real checks and balances on the office itself.”

In other words, the problem of electing a dangerous demagogue like Donald Trump has been compounded by the imperial blueprint that we drafted for him. In the coming months, Congress will hold hearings on keeping Trump’s team accountable, and may even initiate impeachment — but that’s not enough. Our lawmakers need to try again, as they did in the 1970s, to draft new legislation to make sure that an American president can’t bomb people all over the world or spend our tax dollars without the express approval of the people’s elected representatives. For example, we need a “national emergency” law that will make it not only not so easy for the president to declare one, but virtually impossible.

But that won’t happen unless we, the people, get behind it. That means actually caring about the process and the Constitution — even when it’s our own political party and a president that we like who’s committing the abuses. Sure, the next Democratic president could — if Trump gets away with this — declare a national emergency to attack climate change or gun violence. But I don’t want to ratify that kind of authoritarian America, and neither should you, whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican.

It’s remarkable how prescient Arthur Schlesinger’s words were for the current crisis. He wrote: “A constitutional Presidency, as the great Presidents had shown, could be very strong Presidency indeed. But what kept a strong President constitutional, in addition to checks and balances incorporated within his own breast, was the vigilance of the nation. Neither impeachment nor repentance would make much difference if the people themselves had come to an unconscious acceptance of the imperial Presidency.”


Posted: February 17, 2019 - 1:47 PM
Will Bunch | @will_bunch | bunchw@phillynews.com

Saturday, February 16, 2019

Thoughts on the New Manafort Hearing Transcript by Josh Marshall

Thoughts on the New Manafort Hearing Transcript


Editor’s Blog – Talking Points Memo / by Josh Marshall / 7min

Earlier this week we learned that a judge in Washington DC had found that Paul Manafort had lied to prosecutors from the Special Counsel’s Office, thus voiding his plea agreement and incurring other consequences under federal sentencing guidelines. Tonight the court released a redacted transcript of that hearing running 68 pages. I wanted to give you a brief run-down on what’s there.


Let me run through some key points in order.

The prosecution had a very low bar to meet to cancel the plea agreement – just a good faith belief that Manafort was lying, not cooperating. They easily met that standard. The defense didn’t even challenge that. In most of the cases Judge Jackson further found that by a preponderance of the evidence Manafort was in fact intentionally lying as the prosecution claimed.

Judge Jackson’s argument, reasoning is notable. The false claims were not cases where Manafort forget something, or couldn’t remember or misremembered something. They weren’t even cases where he simply denied something. In most cases he made a concerted effort to create an alternative factual narrative which was not consistent with the evidence. Often he concocted multiple ones. As Jackson noted, this pattern (creating an alternative and detailed factual narratives) is almost certainly evidence of intentional deception rather than poor memory or confusion. As she puts it on page 10: “My concern isn’t with non-answers or simply denials, but times he affirmatively advanced a detailed alternative story that was inconsistent with the facts.”

One caveat. There’s a key passage on page 27 when Judge Jackson says that Manafort’s continued efforts to protect Kilimnik “gives rise to legitimate questions about where [Manafort’s] loyalties lie.” Some are interpreting this as Judge Jackson saying that Manafort’s national loyalties may be with Russia rather than the United States. I don’t think that’s the only plausible way to read it. I think it more plausibly means these actions suggest that rather than going all in and working to help the prosecution (which is what the plea deal requires) he was still trying to protect his coconspirator, Kilimnik. One isn’t exclusive of the other. It can be both. Or that other interpretation might be right. But don’t over-read it. I think people are over-interpreting what Judge Jackson meant.

I haven’t had a chance to go over this with our Russia team of Sneed, Kovensky and Kirkland. So there are some points where I need to do a bit more research on what is likely to be under certain redactions. There’s clearly talk about the ‘peace plan’, seemingly also about polling data. But the heart of the discussion is about Manafort’s repeated lies about his interactions with Konstantin Kilimnik, his longtime deputy for his work in Ukraine.

On that front what comes through is the sheer persistence of Manafort’s deceptions. He lies a lot. His charged crimes were largely about lying. Bank frauds, misleading filings. He lied in his interviews with prosecutors, both before and after he began his nominal cooperation. In some cases he would concede a key factual point and then start lying about it again in a subsequent interview. This pattern is difficult to fully explain in either strategic or characterological terms. But as Judge Jackson notes, Manafort’s relationship and dealings with Kilimnik seemed to be at the core of the deception.

She presses this point in a passage I will quote at length from page 40 …

Manafort’s lawyers argued that these lies were not necessarily material since the government hadn’t actually proven that Kilimnik was a spy or formally working for the Russian government. Jackson, I think rightly, said this didn’t matter. Mueller’s brief was to determine what contacts there might have been between members of the Trump campaign and people tied to the Russian government. Good evidence that Kilimnik had at least some tie to the Russian intelligence services made the whole relationship highly relevant and Manafort repeatedly lied about it. End of story in terms of his plea deal surviving.

I don’t know how much seeing under the redactions would resolve it. We’re still seeing what’s happening here murkily and out of focus. What is clear, though, is that Manafort was still working his business machinations with Russia and Ukraine while he was running the campaign of a candidate who was trying to curry favor with Russia and being actively assisted by Russia.

Manafort could not stop lying about his dealings with Kilimnik, even though his deputy, Rick Gates, had apparently already spilled all the beans (see pages 32 and particularly the first sentence at the top of page 33). The jig was up; he kept lying. Manafort had repeated chances to come clean and did not and now faces a sentence of between 20 and 25 years in prison only weeks shy of his 70th birthday. Keeping this secret has left Manafort facing what is all but certain to be a life sentence in prison.

No mundane criminality could possible explain his actions. He’s at the center of the conspiracy.

One explanation is simply that Manafort wants and believes he’s going to get a pardon. So he is not going to inculpate President Trump or provide evidence that his campaign was part of a conspiracy with the Russian government, whether or not Trump himself was involved.

I’m sure Manafort hopes for a pardon. It probably played into his actions, as the prosecutors appear to believe. But it’s simply not a sufficient explanation.

If the goal is to spend as little time as possible in prison, Manafort had a clear route to that goal: cooperate. Rick Gates did that. He appears set to get a very short period in prison. Some kind of deal like that was certainly on offer for Manafort, albeit perhaps not quite that generous. Manafort has already spent more than six months in jail and even the most generous outlook imagines Trump pardoning him after the Mueller probe ends. Perhaps in 2020. But remember that Mueller structured Manafort’s plea deal in such a way as to facilitate a state prosecution if Manafort is pardoned.

More importantly, is there anything we know about Donald Trump that would give anyone confidence that he could be relied upon to issue such a pardon? Even if he did, Manafort would likely have served as much or more time than Gates will end up serving with his plea agreement.

It simply does not add up. There are things here that Manafort cannot admit to, even though full cooperation with the US criminal justice system could probably give him most of a pass on almost any kind of wrongdoing. Notwithstanding all that, he apparently cannot come clean.

Why?

SHAREVISIT WEBSITE


Friday, February 15, 2019

If not the Green New Deal, then what? by Emily Atkin



newrepublic.com
If Not the Green New Deal, Then What?
By Emily Atkin

6-8 minutes

February 13, 2019

As momentum for the Green New Deal grows, so do its detractors. The ambitious plan to fight climate change introduced by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Ed Markey last week has been called everything from “brainless” to “delusional” by conservatives. President Donald Trump said it sounded like “a high school term paper that got a low mark.” Some Democrats have criticized the Green New Deal, too, saying that its goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2030 is unachievable. Others believe the plan doesn’t go far enough.

What, then, do these critics propose instead? What should America do to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow catastrophic global warming?

Most Republicans don’t have an answer to that question because they deny that anything needs to be done at all. But as New Yorker staff writer Osita Nwanevu noted on Twitter, those who accept the dire reality of climate change aren’t helping by offering empty critiques.

Some conservatives are getting frustrated with the lack of alternative proposals from the Republican Party, too. “The ‘Green New Deal’ is a bad idea,” Eddie Scarry wrote recently for the Washington Examiner. “But it’s an idea, nonetheless. And the country has shown it’s willing to try new things if it might make lives better. Republicans should learn that quickly, or lose.” Mike Cernovich, the male supremacist and conspiracy theorist, made a similar argument on Twitter.

It’s a strange day when an alt-right troll admits that climate change denial is a losing strategy. But Cernovich is right. Americans increasingly recognize that the world needs to decarbonize quickly. To prevent the planet from warming by 2 degrees Celsius, which many scientists consider the tipping point, the world must become carbon neutral by 2070. How can it meet that goal without the kind of massive government intervention that the Green New Deal proposes? I put that question to the plan’s critics.

The Green New Deal is based on the idea that the only way to solve a problem as enormous as climate change is to change the way society works: to reform American capitalism itself. That’s why, in addition to transitioning the country to 100 percent renewable energy and installing a high-speed rail system to reduce our reliance on cars, Ocasio-Cortez and Markey’s resolution calls for universal health care, a federal job guarantee program, and affordable housing for all. It also says the public should have “an appropriate ownership stake” in the achievements of the Green New Deal.

The latter policies are what bother Joseph Majkut, the director of climate policy at the Niskanen Center, a think tank that describes itself as a group of “globalists” who support “economic and social inequality” but also a “belief in the wealth creating power of free markets.” “[The Green New Deal] is a whole portfolio of things that aren’t necessarily aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” he said. “I understand the perspective that this is supposed to be a reorganization of the social and political economic order, and climate is a part of that. But to me it feels like climate is just one part of this larger progressive reorganization of society.”

Majkut and the Niskanen Center argue that a federal climate plan should stick to climate-specific policies. He advocates for a nationwide carbon tax; investment in “advanced research and development” for reducing carbon emissions from industry and agriculture; more government subsidies for low-carbon energy sources like wind and solar; and stricter efficiency rules on buildings.

But will those policies be enough to achieve net-zero carbon emissions within several decades? Majkut said he’s not sure, but added that he’s not sure how the Green New Deal would do it, either. “I don’t see how having Medicare for All makes it easier to achieve decarbonization,” he said.

How, I asked, can we make it easier to achieve decarbonization?

“I have absolutely no idea, man,” Majkut said. “Climate change is really hard.”

Ramez Naam, who lectures on energy and environment at Silicon Valley’s Singularity University, outlined similar policy ideas to Majkut in a viral Twitter thread on Friday. But he argued that significant research investments in zero-carbon agriculture and zero-carbon manufacturing—along with government incentives for the technology that emerges—would be enough to achieve decarbonization. “We can figure out how to take agriculture, which is currently 25 percent of our emissions, and do it in a zero carbon way,” he told me. “Then government policy can shape the market and encourage deployment of this new technologies.”

Decarbonization is possible, Naam argued, if the U.S. government invested enough resources in low-carbon agriculture, manufacturing research, and new technologies. “American companies would be the ones exporting the technology for carbon-free cement, carbon-free steel, carbon-free factories, and that would be a huge opportunity,” he said. “I think it will have even more impact than the Green New Deal, because the Green New Deal only decarbonizes the United States. We would only reduce global carbon emissions by 15 percent, and that’s not enough.”

Critics of Naam’s plan might argue that it’s far too risky for a problem as dire as climate change. It relies on scientists’ developing miracle cures for our highest-emitting sectors within just a few years—and then it relies on industry to successfully deploy those cures across the planet. The plan does not seek to reduce excessive consumption, but to somehow make excessive consumption sustainable.

The Green New Deal seems less risky by contrast, since it would mandate the transition to low-carbon energy sources that already exist. The are a lot of questions surrounding the Green New Deal—first and foremost whether it could ever become law—but at least it doesn’t rely on miracle cures. It’s an almost impossible solution to an almost impossible problem.

And yet, even the Green New Deal may not be enough. “We can’t just seek to decarbonize America,” Naam said. “The ultimate climate policy is policy that makes it easier for other countries to decarbonize.” He cited a tweet by Vox’s Matthew Yglesias that called not for a Green New Deal, but a Green Marshall Plan. That frame isn’t exactly right, Naam said: “We shouldn’t be going to countries and building their infrastructure for them.” But it’s the seed, at least, of a potential alternative to the Green New Deal.