Monday, September 1, 2025

More sweltering days forecast for September after hottest summer on record

 

More sweltering days forecast for September after hottest summer on record
By the end of August, 8,341 people had been transported by ambulance for heatstroke in Tokyo alone.
By the end of August, 8,341 people had been transported by ambulance for heatstroke in Tokyo alone. | AFP-JIJI
By Jessica Speed
STAFF WRITER
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Sep 1, 2025

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This summer was Japan’s hottest on record, with average temperatures nationwide more than 2.36 degrees Celsius higher than usual, according to a report released Monday by the Meteorological Agency.
The agency said this summer (June through August) was the hottest since records began, surpassing highs set in 2023 and 2024, when the deviation from the norm was 1.76 C in both years.

The agency attributed the heat to global warming and an unusually strong Pacific high pressure system, bolstered by convective activity in the Indian Ocean and around the Philippines.

Aug. 5 saw the hottest temperature in Japan on record, with the city of Isesaki, Gunma Prefecture, reaching 41.8 C. Of the 153 meteorological stations nationwide, 132 recorded their highest summer temperatures ever. The cumulative number of extremely hot days observed at weather stations nationwide this summer reached 9,385, surpassing the previous record of 8,821 in 2024.

Temperatures reached 38 C or above Monday in the town of Hatoyama in Saitama Prefecture and the cities of Nagoya, Tajimi, Kuki, Kiryu and Toyama in Aichi, Gifu, Saitama, Gunma and Toyama prefectures, respectively.

The extreme heat is expected to continue into September, with a one-month forecast released by the agency Thursday putting the probability of above-average temperatures for the month at 80% nationwide.

According to the report, temperatures are projected to remain high across the country through Friday, with an 80% probability of exceeding seasonal norms. The Tohoku and Hokkaido regions have a 70% chance of higher-than-average temperatures from Sept. 6 to 12, while other regions face an 80% probability. Elevated temperatures are expected to persist into late September and October, although with slightly lower probabilities.

The agency also expects there to be less precipitation and more sunlight across the country, though the western part of the Hokkaido-Tohoku region is expected to be rainier in September.

The most recent three-month outlook issued by the agency predicts above-normal temperatures across the country through November, driven by continued high sea surface temperatures near the Philippines and westerly winds flowing farther north than usual.

The hotter-than-average temperatures are also taking a toll on emergency services. By the end of August, 8,341 people had been transported by ambulance for heatstroke in Tokyo alone, surpassing last year’s record of 7,996, according to the Tokyo Fire Department.

The department is urging residents to take necessary precautions against heat exhaustion and heatstroke, such as using air conditioning, wearing hats or parasols outside to avoid direct sunlight, and drinking small sips of water before beginning to feel thirsty.

Yes, Cash Transfers Work -- by Annie Lowrey

Yes, Cash Transfers Work

The Atlantic by Annie Lowrey / Aug 30


In 2023, the United States produced $28 trillion worth of goods and services. The average family had a net worth of $192,900. Shares in American companies accounted for more than half of global-market capitalization. Yet one in eight Americans lived in poverty, as did one in seven children.


The best way we have to help those people is to give them money. Year in and year out, Social Security lifts more than 20 million Americans above the poverty line; tax credits lift 6 million; and food stamps, housing subsidies, unemployment insurance, and Supplemental Security Income payments lift another 2 million to 4 million each. Expanding these programs would move the poverty rate lower, experts have long argued. Providing families with much-needed cash also tends to have a range of positive knock-on effects, such as keeping kids in school and improving health measures.     


But a new set of cash-transfer programs has had lackluster results. Writing in the new publication The Argument, Kelsey Piper notes that “multiple large, high-quality randomized studies are finding that guaranteed income transfers do not appear to produce sustained improvements in mental health, stress levels, physical health, child development outcomes or employment. Given the sobering results, politicians and policy makers should hesitate before pumping funds into these safety-net initiatives, she argues. If not, “money will be wasted on things that don’t work.”


Having a technocratic debate over how to spend the next marginal safety-net dollar feels a touch absurd at the moment. Republicans are gutting the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Medicaid to finance tax cuts for billionaires; Trump-administration officials are sending masked thugs to disappear people off the streets when they are not busy texting war plans to my boss; American democracy is fading; nobody is talking about instituting a universal basic income anytime soon. Still, policy design is important, and the analysis of these new studies seems to have convinced a number of Beltway wonks and denizens of econ Twitter that cash transfers might not be as good of an idea as we once thought.


Yet the argument has tended to overinterpret a limited and novel body of evidence while ignoring decades of sterling research showing that cash—particularly when targeted to infants and children—is near unmatched as a salve for poverty and its horrible consequences.


The new studies focused on programs that were launched over the past eight years. Each worked in a similar way. Researchers found people interested in receiving unconditional cash payments, divided participants into a control group and a treatment group, disbursed the money, and studied the differences between the two groups. The programs varied in the types of people they enrolled (Baby’s First Years targeted infants and mothers; the Denver Basic Income Project, the homeless; the Compton Pledge, low-income households) and the size and duration of transfers (the OpenResearch Unconditional Income Study offered $1,000 a month, Baby’s First Years, one-third that sum).


The results were disappointing in some respects. “Homeless people, new mothers and low-income Americans all over the country received thousands of dollars. And it’s practically invisible in the data,” Piper writes in her summary. Denver’s program did not lead to a material reduction in homelessness. Compton’s did not improve its participants’ psychological well-being or alleviate certain measures of financial distress. The OpenResearch initiative did not bolster health outcomes. Baby’s First Years did not advance child development or spur families to move to better neighborhoods. “On so many important metrics, these people are statistically indistinguishable from those who did not receive this aid.”


But people receiving aid were statistically distinguishable from those not receiving aid: They had more money to use on the things they needed, or wanted. In the OpenResearch pilot, participants spent more on housing, transportation, and food. Mothers who got cash through the Baby’s First Years initiative were less likely to be in poverty than those who did not. In other words, a famed anti-poverty measure reduced poverty.


This intuitive finding is underplayed, perhaps because it is so intuitive. Cash transfers aren’t new. No safety-net policy has ever been as thoroughly examined over the course of decades. Last year alone, initiatives to send cash and cashlike substitutes to American families cut the overall poverty rate in half. Just a few years ago, a massive temporary federal cash transfer to parents slashed the child-poverty rate to a historic low of 5.2 percent; the rate rebounded after the program ended. You give people money; they have money.


That said, I am not surprised that the pilots’ effects were limited, given when they were happening and how they were structured. The initiatives took place during and after the coronavirus pandemic, when Congress flooded families with stimulus checks, $600-a-week bonuses to unemployment-insurance payments, and a $3,600-per-kid child allowance. If the no-strings-attached payments from OpenResearch or Baby’s First Years were the only cash transfers that low-income families were receiving, I imagine that they would have had a stronger impact. (Cash transfers have more bang for the buck in developing countries than the super-wealthy United States for a related reason: The more money people have, the more expensive it is to improve their situation; the more intense the material deprivation, the greater effect a single dollar has in alleviating it.)   


More important, the pilots took place during an acute cost-of-living crisis: a giant surge in inflation combined with a long-simmering run-up in the price for child care, health care, and housing. A few hundred dollars a month was never going to secure a single mom an apartment in Denver or cover the cost of 9-to-5 day care in Queens. Thus it might have had a smaller impact on financial well-being than anticipated, and might explain why transfers did more for people living in low-cost Illinois and Texas than in the witheringly expensive Los Angeles metro area.


There is a real lesson for policy makers here. Cash is no good if you cannot buy the things you need with it, and the brutal cost of day care, elder care, higher education, doctor visits, prescription medication, and rent—especially rent—continues to hammer the working and middle classes. We cannot transfer our way out of this crisis. If you give parents child-care vouchers, prices will go up unless supply expands. If you provide rental assistance, landlords will soak up the cash. Right now, surging energy costs are eating up Social Security payments, jobless benefits, and earned-income tax-credit transfers.   


But the relationship between household income and supply constraints is not the focus of the current debate. Rather, folks are dinging cash-transfer initiatives for failing to bolster breastfeeding rates, cut maternal stress levels, change people’s physical activity, or increase people’s educational attainment. Given these results, a “big ‘give everyone cash’ program” will not “make them measurably healthier or happier, or get them better jobs, or improve their children’s intellectual development,” Piper writes, not “at any detectable scale.”


Hundreds of studies of cash-transfer programs conducted over the past half century, however, have come to the opposite conclusion. Giving people money does have strong ancillary benefits. Cash makes people healthier, eliminates hunger, increases educational attainment, cuts the disability rate, reduces inequality, raises lifetime earnings, and prevents incarceration. The strongest benefits redound to infants and children. But cash is not magic, and these second- and third-order effects take time to show up in the data. Mothers’ pensions, the precedent for today’s welfare program, had muted effects on the women receiving them from the 1910s to the 1930s, but significant effects on the lifetime earnings and educational attainment of their sons, decades later.


Perhaps other interventions would have worked better. Perhaps researchers should have taken the money from the pilots and spent it on, say, workforce training, job coaching, therapy, health counseling, or some other intervention. But such policies do not have a promising track record, and these studies shed no light on their comparative efficacy versus cash. Complicated programs with complicated participation criteria also tend to be expensive for the government to run and difficult for citizens to navigate, meaning fewer people use them. That’s a big reason to just give people money. Folks would rather receive cash than a refundable tax credit to reduce energy costs, or an income-scaled voucher redeemable at a certain location after you fill out a bunch of paperwork.


The point of giving people money right now is to get them out of poverty. The point of giving people money is to give their kids a better chance at a healthy, abundant life. Reading the studies, I kept on thinking about that temporary child allowance. When parents received the cash, they didn’t feel happier. They moved above the poverty line, and bought more groceries. They could afford more formula for their babies and berries for their toddlers. Maybe that’s a disappointment. But as a parent myself, I kept thinking: What a win.

Yglesias - Perfectly Legal and Undeniably Scandalous

Yglesias - Perfectly Legal and Undeniably Scandalous

Unlike his legally dubious attempt to fire a Fed governor, a lot of the president’s most irresponsible decisions are well within his authority.

August 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM UTC


By Matthew Yglesias

Matthew Yglesias is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. A co-founder of and former columnist for Vox, he writes the Slow Boring blog and newsletter. He is author of “One Billion Americans.”



One of the defining features of Donald Trump’s second presidency is an endless parade of legally dubious assaults on the foundations of American institutions. His administration’s attempt to destroy the independence of the Federal Reserve, with the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency rummaging through private mortgage filings to gin up bad-faith charges of misconduct to create a pretext for firing a member of the Fed’s board, is only the latest example.

But there’s a popular aphorism in Washington: The scandal isn’t what’s illegal, the scandal is what’s legal. So it’s important not to let certain pernicious yet permissible Trump moves get lost in the shuffle.

Chief among these is the firing earlier this month of Air Force Lieutenant General Jeffrey Kruse as head of the Defense Intelligence Agency. Kruse was cashiered on a Friday afternoon without so much as an explanation — similar to how the administration handled dismissals of senior military officers earlier this year.

Firing high-ranking military officers is unquestionably a legitimate exercise of presidential power, and there is certainly no legal obligation for the president or his team to explain their reasons. Still, it is highly unusual to fire commanders in this way. Unlike cabinet secretaries and other conventional political appointees who resign as a matter of course when a new president is elected, the long-established custom in the United States is for flag officers to remain in place across administrations.

Kruse appears to have been fired because the White House did not like the DIA’s assessment of the efficacy of US air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. Again, the president is legally allowed to punish the head of an intelligence agency for reaching a conclusion that he disagrees with. But absent clear evidence of misconduct, it’s extremely unadvisable.

Intelligence work is difficult. Agencies often disagree about things in good faith. If political decision-makers start making it clear that only certain conclusions are acceptable, the quality of the work product is going to be compromised, and ultimately they will find themselves receiving bad information. And intelligence failures can blow up in spectacular ways.

Trump, of all people, should know this: The story of his rise to power cannot be told without explaining how the US war in Iraq discredited George W. Bush and the Republican Party establishment even while leaving much of the basic appeal of cultural conservatism in place. Bush never did anything quite as clumsy as the outright firing an agency head for saying the wrong thing, but his subtler modes of influence changed things for the worse. Trump’s cruder approach risks even larger disasters.

And he’s applied the same blunt approach to the transparent and staid realm of economic data. The US commissioner of labor statistics is a Senate-confirmed political appointee, so Trump clearly had the authority to fire Erika McEntarfer from the job several weeks ago. In his place, he wants to install a hyper-partisan economist from the right-wing Heritage Foundation.

The propaganda upside to installing a hack at the BLS is clear enough. And it’s unquestionably legal. But this kind of move, to quote another famous saying, is worse than a crime; it’s a mistake.

It is far more important, both substantively and politically, to try to improve economic conditions rather than to try to improve economic numbers. Short of an outright recession, pretty much any situation can be seen as a glass half full or half empty. The White House usually tries to make the case for half full, while the opposition party argues for half empty. Juking the stats could give the White House a leg up — but would also make it easier for the opposition to dismiss any good news as fabrication.

A more serious issue is that reliable economic data is essential for effective economic policy.

At the beginning of former President Barack Obama’s tenure, for example, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis underestimated the severity of the recession. The data were eventually revised, and it’s possible to argue that the less grim numbers made Obama look better in the moment. But long term, it was a disaster: Neither Congress nor the administration had an accurate read on the state of the US economy, leading to a weaker stimulus, with dire effects for both their own political projects and American workers.


Trump’s tendency to treat disagreement as disrespect — and to conflate agreement with respect, an equally dangerous trait that was flagrantly on display at last week’s three-hour cabinet meeting — blinds both the country and himself to the possibility that things aren’t going as well as he’d like. His firing last week of the director of the Centers for Disease Control, which bodes ill for US public health, calls to mind his hostility early in the Covid-19 pandemic to the idea of widespread testing for the virus. It’s easy to forget, but long before the controversies over mask rules and school closures and vaccines, there was a prolonged period when the administration could have taken preemptive action against a virus that was then limited to China. Instead, it chose to downplay the risks.

A president is certainly within his rights to fire the head of the CDC, the DIA or the BLS. These are simply “normal” bad decisions, not ones that raise constitutional questions. But they are often consequential, and Trump’s impulses are consistently irresponsible.

Saturday, August 30, 2025

AI Has Broken High School and College

AI Has Broken High School and College

The Atlantic by Damon Beres / Aug 30


This is Atlantic Intelligence, a newsletter in which our writers help you wrap your mind around artificial intelligence and a new machine age. Sign up here.


Another school year is beginning—which means another year of AI-written essays, AI-completed problem sets, and, for teachers, AI-generated curricula. For the first time, seniors in high school have had their entire high-school careers defined to some extent by chatbots. The same applies for seniors in college: ChatGPT released in November 2022, meaning unlike last year’s graduating class, this year’s crop has had generative AI at its fingertips the whole time.


My colleagues Ian Bogost and Lila Shroff both recently wrote articles about these students and the state of AI in education. (Ian, a university professor himself, wrote about college, while Lila wrote about high school.) Their articles were striking: It is clear that AI has been widely adopted, by students and faculty alike, yet the technology has also turned school into a kind of free-for-all.


I asked Lila and Ian to have a brief conversation about their work—and about where AI in education goes from here.


This interview has been edited and condensed.


Lila Shroff: We’re a few years into AI in schools. Is the conversation maturing or changing in some way at universities?


Ian Bogost: Professors are less surprised that it exists, but there is maybe a bit of a blind spot to the state of adoption among students. I saw a panic in 2022, 2023—like, Oh my God, this can do anything. Or at least there were questions. Can this do everything? How much is my class at risk? Now I think there’s more of a sense of, Well, this thing still exists, but we have time. We don’t have to worry about it right away. And that might actually be a worse reaction than the original.


Lila: The blind-spot language rings true to the high-school environment too. I spoke to some high schoolers—granted this was quite a small sample—but basically it sounds like everybody is using this all the time for everything.


Ian: Not just for school, right? Anything they want to do, they’re asking ChatGPT now.


Lila: I was a sophomore in college when ChatGPT came out, so I witnessed some of this firsthand. There was much more anxiety—it felt like the rules were unclear. And I think both of our stories touched on the fact that for this incoming class of high-school and college seniors, they’ve barely had any of those four years without ChatGPT. Whatever sort of stigma or confusion that might have been there in earlier years is fading, and it’s becoming very much default and normalized.


Ian: Normalization is the thing that struck me the most. That is not a concept that I think the teachers have wrapped their heads around. Teachers and faculty also have been adopting AI carefully or casually—or maybe even in a more professional way, to write articles or letters of recommendation, which I’ve written about. There’s still this sense that it’s not really a part of their habit.


Lila: I looked into teachers at the K–12 level for the article I wrote. Three in 10 teachers are using AI weekly in some way.


Ian: Some kind of redesign of educational practice might be required, which is easy for me to say in an article. Instead of an answer, I have an approach to thinking about the answer that has been bouncing around in my brain. Are you familiar with the concept in software development called technical debt? In the software world, you make the decision about how to design or implement a system that feels good and right at the time. And maybe you know it’s going to be a bad idea in the long run, but for now, it makes sense and it is convenient. But you never get around to really making it better later on, and so you have all these nonoptimal aspects of your infrastructure.


That’s the state I feel like we’re in, at least in the university. It’s a little different in high school, especially in public high school, with these different regulatory regimes at work. But we accrued all this pedagogical debt, and not just since AI—there are aspects of teaching that we ought to be paying more attention to or doing better, like, this class needs to be smaller, or these kinds of assignments don’t work unless you have a lot of hands-on iterative feedback. We’ve been able to survive under the weight of pedagogical debt, and now something snapped. AI entered the scene and all of those bad or questionable—but understandable—decisions about how to design learning experiences are coming home to roost.


Lila: I agree that AI is a breaking point in education. One answer that seems to be emerging at the high-school level is a more practical, skills-based education. The College Board, for instance, has announced two new AP courses—AP Business and AP Cybersecurity. But there’s another group of people who are really concerned about how overreliance on these tools erodes critical-thinking skills, and maybe that means everyone should go read the classics and write their essays in cursive handwriting.


Ian: My young daughter has been going to this set of classes outside of school where she learned how to wire an outlet. We used to have shop class and metal class, and you could learn a trade, or at least begin to, in high school. A lot of that stuff has been disinvested. We used to touch more things. Now we move symbols around, and that’s kind of it.


I wonder if this all-or-nothing nature of AI use has something to do with that. If you had a place in your day as a high-school or college student where you just got to paint, or got to do on-the-ground work in the community, or apply the work you did in statistics class to solve a real-world problem—maybe that urge to just finish everything as rapidly as possible so you can get onto the next thing in your life would be less acute. The AI problem is a symptom of a bigger cultural illness, in a way.


Lila: Students are using AI exactly as it has been designed, right? They’re just making themselves more productive. If they were doing the same thing in an office, they might be getting a bonus.


Ian: Some of the students I talked to said, Your boss isn’t going to care how you get things done, just that they get done as effectively as possible. And they’re not wrong about that.


Lila: One student I talked to said she felt there was really too much to be done, and it was hard to stay on top of it all. Her message was, maybe slow down the pace of the work and give students more time to do things more richly.


Ian: The college students I talk to, if you slow it all down, they’re more likely to start a new club or practice lacrosse one more day a week. But I do love the idea of a slow-school movement to sort of counteract AI. That doesn’t necessarily mean excluding AI—it just means not filling every moment of every day with quite so much demand.


But you know, this doesn’t feel like the time for a victory of deliberateness and meaning in America. Instead, it just feels like you’re always going to be fighting against the drive to perform even more.

Online Shopping May Never Be the Same

Online Shopping May Never Be the Same

The Atlantic by Ian Bogost / Aug 30



A few years ago, I found the perfect rug for my daughter’s room. It had pink unicorns and flowers. But I scoffed at the price tag on Anthropologie’s website: more than $1,000, plus an additional fee for “white glove delivery.” Then I fired up Etsy. I found a similar product made by a workshop in India that shipped directly from there. It took weeks to arrive, but it was half the price.


Online shopping is a miracle: You can find items of any kind, fit for any purpose, for affordable prices—and shipped from all over the world to your door. But as of today, buying from international sellers has become more expensive for Americans. That’s because President Donald Trump ended the de minimis exemption on imported goods, a loophole that allowed millions of daily packages to enter the country without paying duties. The exemption has been around for a long time—nearly a century—but it took on new import (get it?) in 2016, when the maximum value for untaxed goods rose from $200 to $800. In that moment, the social-media-driven rise of direct-to-consumer e-commerce, drop-shipping, and online-marketplace sales were also accelerating. Ever since, American ports, mailboxes, and homes have been flooded with cheap clothing, electronics, accessories, skin-care products, toys, and a host of other consumer goods.


The de minimis loophole is a big reason e-commerce sites including Shein and Temu could sell you things for so cheap: They shipped straight from China, skirting any tariffs. The White House ended the exemption for goods from China earlier this year, and now de minimis is ending for all countries. That means that many things you might import could become more expensive (on account of the additional taxes) or harder to buy (because sellers won’t bother shipping to the U.S.), or take longer to arrive (because of customs backlogs), or any combination of those. The rug I bought a few years ago would now be subject to a 50 percent import duty, when you factor in tariffs on India. Presuming that cost is passed down to consumers, it’s enough to give a buyer like me pause.


You might not realize how much of the stuff you buy online comes directly from overseas. I didn’t, until I looked closely at my buying habits over the past few years. After all, sites such as Etsy and eBay offer seamless global commerce: A handmade craft object could come from Maine or Myanmar, straight to you. Even Amazon has benefited from de minimis. Various strategies have allowed the retailer’s marketplace suppliers to take advantage of de minimis when they import goods; at other times, when you buy from the big platforms’ sites, those vendors might ship what you ordered directly from abroad, tax free.


[Read: Amazon decides speed isn’t everything]


Buying cheap imported goods has become the best part of online shopping: Not only can you find the best deals from international sellers, but also you can source items to satiate specific hobbies and interests—say, drafting pens from Japan or instrument reeds from Belgium. I found that I had bought a host of stuff, on Etsy and beyond, that took advantage of de minimis, including rubber-tree hippo figurines from Denmark (naturally) and a surprise mandolin from Ireland for my daughter. Those goods would now be subject to an additional tariff. I’ve bought incredibly cheap Chinese- and Japanese-manufactured camera lenses that have fueled a resurgence of photography hobbyism for me and my son; I also bought a detailed and shockingly high-quality Paul Revere costume to help a neighbor’s kid beat her classmates in a school costume contest—a small thing, but one we’ll all remember.


Ah, and then the British faucet doodad. This was a big deal. When I tried to repurpose an old, turn-of-the century washbasin with separate hot and cold water spigots, I couldn’t find a faucet that fit the sink. Sure enough, some vendor in the United Kingdom had a $30 plastic tube that did the trick. International sellers sometimes are the only ones that have what you need, and you don’t need to be a particularly adept shopper to find them. A simple Google search will suffice.


Of course, being able to seamlessly import cheap stuff has also encouraged mindless consumerism. Some imported goods are crap that nobody ever needed, produced at unconscionable labor and environmental costs. My family has a bit of a LEGO habit, and my son took to buying the cheaper Chinese knockoff sets to maximize our, well, brick-building value, I suppose. It felt a little suspect to do this—the sets are direct copies of LEGO designs—and many of them remain in bags in a closet, unbuilt. Surely we didn’t need to import those. Nor the piles of cables, chargers, head lamps, and other low-cost electronic goods that broke after a few uses.



Whether it’s junk or not, Americans have become acclimated to buying a prodigious variety of wares from all over the world. When de minimis fused with global online commerce a decade ago, ordinary buyers like you and me started to see behind the curtain of domestic retailers. Anthropologie’s website touted that the unicorn rug was “exclusive” to its store. But that was never entirely true: Sellers offering the same style with similar materials found a way to reach buyers like me directly, thanks to online commerce and its associated marketplaces. That’s not going to change anytime soon. Instead, buying things will just become more painful. Someone will bear the burden of the new duties, and that someone is likely to be you.

The Trump Administration Will Automate Health Inequities

The Trump Administration Will Automate Health Inequities

The Atlantic by Craig Spencer / Aug 30



The White House’s AI Action Plan, released in July, mentions “health care” only three times. But it is one of the most consequential health policies of the second Trump administration. Its sweeping ambitions for AI—rolling back safeguards, fast-tracking “private-sector-led innovation,” and banning “ideological dogmas such as DEI”—will have long-term consequences for how medicine is practiced, how public health is governed, and who gets left behind.


Already, the Trump administration has purged data from government websites, slashed funding for research on marginalized communities, and pressured government researchers to restrict or retract work that contradicts political ideology. These actions aren’t just symbolic—they shape what gets measured, who gets studied, and which findings get published. Now, those same constraints are moving into the development of AI itself. Under the administration’s policies, developers have a clear incentive to make design choices or pick data sets that won’t provoke political scrutiny.


These signals are shaping the AI systems that will guide medical decision making for decades to come. The accumulation of technical choices that follows—encoded in algorithms, embedded in protocols, and scaled across millions of patients—will cement the particular biases of this moment in time into medicine’s future. And history has shown that once bias is encoded into clinical tools, even obvious harms can take decades to undo—if they’re undone at all.


AI tools were permeating every corner of medicine before the action plan was released: assisting radiologists, processing insurance claims, even communicating on behalf of overworked providers. They’re also being used to fast-track the discovery of new cancer therapies and antibiotics, while advancing precision medicine that helps providers tailor treatments to individual patients. Two-thirds of physicians used AI in 2024—a 78 percent jump from the year prior. Soon, not using AI to help determine diagnoses or treatments could be seen as malpractice.


At the same time, AI’s promise for medicine is limited by the technology’s shortcomings. One health-care AI model confidently hallucinated a nonexistent body part. Another may make doctors’ procedural skills worse. Providers are demanding stronger regulatory oversight of AI tools, and some patients are hesitant to have AI analyze their data.


The stated goal of the Trump administration’s AI Action Plan is to preserve American supremacy in the global AI arms race. But the plan also prompts developers of leading-edge AI models to make products free from “ideological bias” and “designed to pursue objective truth rather than social engineering agendas.” This guidance is murky enough that developers must interpret vague ideological cues, then quietly calibrate what their models can say, show, or even learn to avoid crossing a line that’s never clearly drawn.


Some medical tools incorporate large language models such as ChatGPT. But many AI tools are bespoke and proprietary and rely on narrower sets of medical data. Given how this administration has aimed to restrict data collection at the Department of Health and Human Services and ensure that those data conform to its ideas about gender and race, any health tools developed under Donald Trump’s AI action plan may face pressure to rely on training data that reflects similar principles. (In response to a request for comment, a White House official said in an email that the AI plan and the president’s executive order on scientific integrity together ensure that “scientists in the government use only objective, verifiable data and criteria in scientific decision making and when building and contracting for AI,” and that future clinical tools are “not limited by the political or ideological bias of the day.”)


Models don’t invent the world they govern; they depend on and reflect the data we feed them. That’s what every research scientist learns early on: garbage in, garbage out. And if governments narrow what counts as legitimate health data and research as AI models are built into medical practice, the blind spots won’t just persist; they’ll compound and calcify into the standards of care.


In the United States, gaps in data have already limited the perspective of AI tools. During the first years of COVID, data on race and ethnicity were frequently missing from death and vaccination reports. A review of data sets fed to AI models used during the pandemic found similarly poor representation. Cleaning up these gaps is difficult and expensive—but it’s the best way to ensure the algorithms don’t indelibly incorporate existing inequities into clinical code. After years of advocacy and investment, the U.S. had finally begun to close long-standing gaps in how we track health and who gets counted.


But over the past several months, that type of fragile progress has been deliberately rolled back. At times, CDC web pages have been rewritten to reflect ideology, not epidemiology. The National Institutes of Health halted funding for projects it labeled as “DEI”—despite never defining what that actually includes. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has made noise about letting NIH scientists publish only in government-run journals, and demanded the retraction of a rigorous study, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, that found no link between aluminum and autism. (Kennedy has promoted the opposite idea: that such vaccine ingredients are a cause of autism.) And a recent executive order gives political appointees control over research grants, including the power to cancel those that don’t “advance the President’s policy priorities.” Selective erasure of data is becoming the foundation for future health decisions.


American medicine has seen the consequences of building on such a shaky foundation before. Day-to-day practice has long relied on clinical tools that confuse race with biology. Lung-function testing used race corrections derived from slavery-era plantation medicine, leading to widespread underdiagnosis of serious lung disease in Black patients. In 2023, the American Thoracic Society urged the use of a race-neutral approach, yet adoption is uneven, with many labs and devices still defaulting to race-based settings. A kidney-function test used race coefficients that delayed specialty referrals and transplant eligibility. An obstetric calculator factored in race and ethnicity in ways that increased unnecessary Cesarean sections among Black and Hispanic women.


Once race-based adjustments are baked into software defaults, clinical guidelines, and training, they persist—quietly and predictably—for years. Even now, dozens of flawed decision-making tools that rely on outdated assumptions remain in daily use. Medical devices tell a similar story. Pulse oximeters can miss dangerously low oxygen levels in darker-skinned patients. During the COVID pandemic, those readings fed into hospital-triage algorithms—leading to disparities in treatment and trust. Once flawed metrics get embedded into “objective” tools, bias becomes practice, then policy.


When people in power define which data matter and the outputs are unchallenged, the outcomes can be disastrous. In the early 20th century, the founders of modern statistics—Francis Galton, Ronald Fisher, and Karl Pearson—were also architects of the eugenics movement. Galton, who coined the term eugenics, pioneered correlation and regression and used these tools to argue that traits like intelligence and morality were heritable and should be managed through selective breeding. Fisher, often hailed as the “father of modern statistics,” was an active leader in the U.K.’s Eugenics Society and backed its policy of “voluntary” sterilization of those deemed “feeble-minded.” Pearson, creator of the p-value and chi-squared tests, founded the Annals of Eugenics journal and deployed statistical analysis to argue that Jewish immigrants would become a “parasitic race.”


For each of these men—and the broader medical and public-health community that supported the eugenics movement—the veneer of data objectivity helped transform prejudice into policy. In the 1927 case Buck v. Bell, the Supreme Court codified their ideas when it upheld compulsory sterilization in the name of public health. That decision has never been formally overturned.


Many AI proponents argue concerns of bias are overblown. They’ll note that bias has been fretted over for years, and to some extent, they’re right: Bias was always present in AI models, but its effects were more limited—in part because the systems themselves were narrowly deployed. Until recently, the number of AI tools used in medicine was small, and most operated at the margins of health care, not at its core. What’s different now is the speed and the scale of AI’s expansion into this field, at the same time the Trump administration is dismantling guardrails for regulating AI and shaping these models’ future.


Human providers are biased, too, of course. Researchers have found that women’s medical concerns are dismissed more often than men’s, and some white medical students falsely believe Black patients have thicker skin or feel less pain. Human bias and AI bias alike can be addressed through training, transparency, and accountability, but the path for the latter requires accounting for both human fallibility and that of the technology itself. Technical fixes exist—reweighing data, retraining models, and bias audits—but they’re often narrow and opaque. Many advanced AI models—especially large language models—are functionally black boxes: Using them means feeding information in and waiting for outputs. When biases are produced in the computational process, the people who depend on that process are left unaware of when or how they were introduced. That opacity fuels a bias feedback loop: AI amplifies what we put in, then shapes what we take away, leaving humans more biased for having trusted it.


A “move fast and break things” rollout of AI in health care, especially when based on already biased data sets, will encode similar assumptions into models that are enigmatic and self-reinforcing. By the time anyone recognizes the flaws, they won’t just be baked into a formula; they’ll be indelibly built into the infrastructure of care.

Why Is the National Guard in D.C.? Even They Don’t Know.

Why Is the National Guard in D.C.? Even They Don’t Know.

The Atlantic by Ashley Parker / Aug 30

Even the men and women of the National Guard seemed flummoxed, at times, over what exactly they were supposed to be doing in the nation’s capital.


“We’re the president’s patrol, ma’am,” one trio from South Carolina told us when we spotted them along the waterfront and asked what they were up to.


“Just walkin’ around,” replied another gaggle—also strolling along the Potomac.


“Smiling and waving,” a third group, up from West Virginia and stationed along the National Mall, told us.


President Donald Trump’s decision this month to deploy the National Guard to the streets of Washington, D.C., unleashed a torrent of coverage, criticism, and fear, along with a smattering of muted praise from some residents. More than two weeks later, soldiers are still deployed throughout the city, a physical presence amid the capital’s greenery as summer fades into fall. Their mission is ostensibly to stop violent crime, but many here and beyond fear that Washington is being used as a test case—the blueprint for Trump to deploy the National Guard across the country as a paramilitary police force—and that Americans are being conditioned to accept authoritarianism. (Trump seemed to say the quiet part aloud Tuesday in a Cabinet meeting when he declared, “The line is that I’m a dictator,” before claiming that he’s succeeding in halting crime in the city. “So a lot of people say, ‘You know, if that’s the case, I’d rather have a dictator.’”)


Trump’s federalization of the District has several parts: There’s the deployment of more than 2,200 (and counting) Guard members. But there are also the hundreds of federal officers from agencies such as the FBI and DEA who are helping enforce D.C. laws, the immigration-enforcement officers who have been empowered to detain anyone not in the country legally, and the D.C. police force, over which the president has asserted control. Social media has been flooded with alarming videos: masked federal officers violently wrestling a food-delivery driver to the ground, kids having to push through heavily armed officers on their way to elementary school.


The Guardsmen were initially unarmed, but Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday ordered them to start carrying their issued weapons. In most cases, it’s a small handgun on their hip. Photos have circulated of Guard members with assault rifles in some Metro stations and on their outdoor patrols. Defense officials told us these weapons are meant to be used only in self-defense.


The occupation has chilled life in the city, especially in neighborhoods with large immigrant populations: quiet playgrounds, empty restaurants, fewer street vendors, fewer food-delivery scooters. Nannies have stayed home, and house cleaners have canceled. Some mixed-status families are keeping their children home from school or skipping work until the federal focus moves on, or they’re leaving home only when absolutely necessary. As D.C. Public Schools reopened this week, some local parent-teacher groups organized impromptu “walking buses”—volunteers willing to help walk to and from school kids whose parents don’t feel safe doing so.


The National Guard has become the face of the occupation even though, for those who feel afraid, it’s in many respects the least of their worries. The Guardsmen themselves have generally behaved more like a notional guard than a national one.


Their sudden appearance brings with it an absurdist sheen—their tasks quotidian (“beautification”), their backdrops farcical (a Dupont Circle Krispy Kreme), their very presence sitcom-esque (as if lifted from an episode of Veep). Alongside a video of troops engaged in light horticulture, one person wondered on social media, “National guardner?” It is not entirely surprising that the Justice Department paralegal who hurled a Subway salami footlong at a Customs and Border Protection officer—declaring, upon his arrest, “I did it. I threw a sandwich”—promptly became an icon of D.C. resistance, his act seeming, in its own implausible way, to epitomize the city’s collective reaction. But the banality of the National Guard’s daily patrols belies a far more complicated reality—for the city’s residents, the men and women of the National Guard, even the nation itself—colored by race, class, immigration status, lived experience, and, of course, personal politics. The absent nannies and house cleaners are a frustrating inconvenience for the families who employ them, but a physical manifestation of the sense of menace that those employees feel.


The photos bouncing around social media and private text chains—of the Guard milling in front of the uber-trendy 14th Street brasserie Le Diplomate, for instance—might be easy fodder for gentle mockery. “National Guard members are deployed in DC to the “crime-ridden” … National Mall? Le Diplomate? Waste of money,” the Senate Judiciary Democrats posted on X Monday. But while homicide rates in D.C. have been declining in recent years, the city’s overall crime statistics offer a far more mixed picture, one in which the threat of violent crime still feels very real to many residents. That Krispy Kreme? Two teens were stabbed in Dupont Circle and one man was shot in June just steps from its entrance, amid the city’s Pride celebrations. And Le Diplomate, with its $41 steak frites and $76 Thursday special (Dover sole meunière)? A shooting in 2021, on a beautiful summer evening, sent diners fleeing. A more recent one this May, just a block away, left one man dead. And a disconcertingly large number of residents have personal crime anecdotes.


During a news conference Wednesday, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser seemed to channel her own ambivalence, and perhaps some of her city’s as well. She credited Trump’s federal law-enforcement surge with reducing crime in the District, but she also expressed concern about the Guard presence and the immigration crackdown. Asked about “nervous Hispanic workers,” she pointedly said that she wanted to “express to them as a neighbor how very sorry I am that they’re living in this terror.”


The particulars are no less complicated for the Guardsmen themselves. When the president first ordered their deployment to the nation’s capital, Pentagon officials told us that some Guard leaders asked: “Is this legal?” After all, the National Guard is usually deployed by governors to combat threats from nature—hurricanes or other natural disasters—or by the president to support U.S. military missions abroad, as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan. When the Guard shows up to protect Americans from fellow Americans, it is under extraordinary circumstances and for a limited mission, such as after the U.S. Capitol riot on January 6, 2021—the last time the government deployed the D.C National Guard to the city to address an emergency.


In their initial doubts, what some Guardsmen were really asking was existential: Are we becoming something different? After all, the National Guard appears to have a new kind of mission, one that began in Los Angeles when Trump federalized the Guard over immigration concerns; moved to D.C. under the auspices of addressing “rampant violence and disorder”; and, according to Trump, could soon expand to Chicago and Baltimore.


This ambiguity not only invites confusion and raises fears of troops conducting more police-like functions, but it also thrusts the National Guard into the middle of political disputes. The more often it is deployed in politically divisive missions—instead of the more routine apolitical assignments to disaster zones—the more perilous the Guard’s standing becomes among the American public.


There is also the concern that the Guard is not actually making much of a difference. To wit: On Wednesday around 3 p.m.—less than a week after Trump declared on social media that “Washington, D.C. is SAFE AGAIN!”—a woman was stabbed near a major intersection along the city’s H Street corridor. Guard members had been passing through the intersection all day, and a trio happened to be finishing lunch on the patio of a taqueria directly across the street when the stabbing happened. Still, the suspect managed to flee. The Guard declined to comment.


“So safe,” a neighborhood resident texted us.


To some—especially undocumented immigrants—the Guard presence is disconcerting at best, terrifying at worst. But to others, they are more curiosity than conquerors, more tourists than tormentors.


“They’re giving ‘Hey, pal’ vibes,” one woman whispered to her companion this week, observing Guardsman ambling along the waterfront.


Often, the Guard presents with a certain Boy Scout earnestness. On Tuesday, military officials shared that the troops had completed “beautification projects,” describing the efforts not unlike a merit-badge mission: First, Guardsmen collected driftwood while clearing the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial. The following day, they turned that wood into mulch and wielded wheelbarrows as they spread it around the Tidal Basin. (Before their weapons orders came down, some—like Cub Scouts in training—were armed with only their trusty metal water bottles, jammed deep into their cargo pockets.)


Hegseth has repeatedly described his desire to create a U.S. military force focused on lethality. But Christopher Le Mon, a former Biden- and Obama-administration national-security official, joked to us that the troops’ landscaping duties seemed more like a focus on “leafality.” The use of troops for such missions is “ridiculous and wasteful,” he said, adding more seriously: “Meanwhile the Chinese military probably is training to invade Taiwan.”


More than half of the troops hail from outside D.C., and the tourism vibe is strong. On Monday, some Guard members sat resting in a patch of shade in front of the Washington Monument, alongside a group of tired schoolchildren. A few minutes later, a different group of Guardsmen boarded a charter bus, as if readying for their next sightseeing stop. At the city’s Wharf, one Guardsman obligingly took a photo of a couple before two of his comrades in arms joined the couple in the picture.


“You guys are so sweet!” the woman enthused.


Yet, again, the reality is far more complicated. Yes, the Guard has demonstrated instances of admirable sweetness; one Capitol Hill resident and father of two recounted to us how troops on the Mall allowed his 4-year-old son to press the buttons on their walkie-talkies. But, this person continued, on Monday he had gotten off the Metro at the Eastern Market stop and found that a group of fare-jumping teens who regularly hop the turnstiles had been halted by a combination of Guardsmen and police officers. He said that he’s long found the fare-hoppers to be a frustration of city living, yet added, “I don’t know that this was a problem that rose to the level of Let’s deploy the National Guard with their long guns.”


A lawyer who lives on Capitol Hill told us that she had observed something different at the Eastern Market stop Monday, when most D.C. public schools opened for the new year: A scrum of moms—or possibly teachers—standing in front of the Guard, holding up signs. “At first I thought the group of women were protesting the Guard,” she told us. “But then I looked at the signs and they literally said things like First day of school! and You got this!”


“It just struck me as an example of why this is such a farce and so unnecessary,” she continued. “This is a community where moms stand outside and encourage kids on the first day of school.” The District, she said, “is not a community that needs to be militarized.”


At Union Station, in the shadow of the Capitol, the troops got a decidedly mixed reaction as we looked on one afternoon this week. Some commuters held up phones as they passed by, recording out of curiosity or for posterity. A woman in workout gear was more confrontational, filming the Guardsmen at close range and repeatedly demanding, “What’s your mission?” Others were quietly supportive: One woman flashed a quick thumbs-up, and another slipped a sentry a rose-colored Vitamin Water.


At one point, a man, head shorn, sidled up to a police officer and a Guardsman to offer explicit praise. The man said that usually at Union Station, “every breath was weed,” but he hasn’t so much as smelled a hint of marijuana smoke since the Guard stationed itself in the area. He said he also normally witnesses at least a handful of fare-jumpers every trip, and enthused that those, too, have disappeared. He hoped the Guardsman were hearing the praise they deserved, he said.


By the time we headed home, after several hours spent wandering the city’s various quadrants, it was clear that almost no one felt particularly good about the arrangement: not the National Guardsmen, many of whom clearly didn’t want to be there, leaving their families and jobs in order to spread mulch and pick up trash; and not the residents, many of whom were furious with the occupation of their city or, worse, terrified of what the military’s presence portended for them and their loved ones. Even those residents who welcomed the troops did so from a place of discontent, so fed up with crime and quality-of-life issues that they felt relieved that someone was finally doing something, anything to help.


Earlier in the day, sitting on a bench at the Wharf, we watched a lone man in fatigues wander by, earbuds in. “Where’s the rest of your trio?” we called out, by now accustomed to seeing Guardsmen in groups of three. “Where are your other two?” He stopped, took out his earbuds, and leaned toward us, revealing the patch on his uniform that stated his military branch.


“I’m Space Force,” he offered cheerily. He looked blissful, as if in the weeks since Trump deployed the military to Washington, he had come to understand that managing the cosmos was less complicated than being responsible for even a few blocks of the capital.

America’s fantasy of home-grown chipmaking

America’s fantasy of home-grown chipmaking

To remain the world’s foremost technological power, the country needs its friends

The Economist, Aug. 21


How low mighty Intel has fallen. Half a century ago the American chipmaker was a byword for the cutting edge; it went on to dominate the market for personal-computer chips and in 2000 briefly became the world’s second-most-valuable company. Yet these days Intel, with a market capitalisation of $100bn, is not even the 15th-most-valuable chip firm, and supplies practically none of the advanced chips used for artificial intelligence (AI). Once an icon of America’s technological and commercial prowess, it has lately been a target for subsidies and protection. As we published this, President Donald Trump was even mulling quasi-nationalisation.

More than ever, semiconductors hold the key to the 21st century. They are increasingly critical for defence; in the ai race between America and China, they could spell the difference between victory and defeat. Even free-traders acknowledge their strategic importance, and worry about the world’s reliance for cutting-edge chips on tsmc and its home of Taiwan, which faces the threat of Chinese invasion. Yet chips also pose a fiendish test for proponents of industrial policy. Their manufacture is a marvel of specialisation, complexity and globalisation. Under those conditions, intervening in markets is prone to fail—as Intel so vividly illustrates.

To see how much can go wrong, consider its woes. Hubris caused the firm to miss both the smartphone and the ai waves, losing out to firms such as Arm, Nvidia and tsmc. Joe Biden’s CHIPS Act, which aimed to spur domestic chipmaking, promised Intel $8bn in grants and up to $12bn in loans. But the company is floundering. A fab in Ohio meant to open this year is now expected to begin operations in the early 2030s. Intel is heavily indebted and generates barely enough cash to keep itself afloat.

 The sums needed to rescue it keep growing. By one estimate Intel will need to invest more than $50bn in the next few years if it is to succeed at making leading-edge chips. Even if the government were to sink that much into the firm, it would have no guarantee of success. The company is said to be struggling with its latest manufacturing process. Its sales are falling and its plight risks becoming even more desperate.

The Biden administration failed with Intel, but Mr Trump could make things worse. He has threatened tariffs on chip imports, and may try to browbeat firms such as Nvidia into using Intel to make semiconductors for them. These measures might buy Intel time but they would be self-defeating for America. Chipmaking is not an end in itself but a critical input America’s tech sector requires to be world-beating. Forcing firms to settle for anything less than the best would blunt their edge.

What should America do? One lesson is not to pin the nation’s hopes on keeping Intel intact. It could sell its fab business to a deep-pocketed investor, such as SoftBank, which has reportedly expressed interest in buying it and this week announced a $2bn investment in Intel. Or it could sell its design arm and pour the proceeds into manufacturing. Intel may fail to catch up with TSMC even then. Either way, the federal government should not throw good money after bad. Taking a stake in Intel would only complicate matters.

That leads to a second lesson: to look beyond Intel and solve other chipmakers’ problems. tsmc is seeking to spread its wings. It is running out of land for giant fabs in Taiwan and its workforce is ageing. It has already pledged to invest $165bn to bring chipmaking to America. A first fab is producing four-nanometre (nm) chips and a second is scheduled to begin making more advanced chips by 2028. Samsung, a South Korean chipmaker that is having more success than Intel, is setting up a fab in Texas. But progress has been slow: Samsung and TSMC have both struggled with a lack of skilled workers and delays in receiving permits.

The last lesson is that, even if domestic chipmaking does make America more resilient, the country cannot shut itself off from the rest of the world. One reason is that the supply chain is highly specialised, with key inputs coming from across the globe, including extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines from the Netherlands and chipmaking tools from Japan. The other is that Taiwan and its security will remain critical. Even by the end of this decade, when tsmc’s third fab in America is due to begin producing 2nm chips, two-thirds of such semiconductors are likely to be made on the island. TSMC’s model is based on innovating at home first, before spreading its advances around the world.

To keep America’s chip supply chains resilient, Mr Trump needs a coherent, thought-through strategy—a tall order for a man who governs by impulse. No wonder he is going in the wrong direction. On Taiwan he has been cavalier, confident that China will not invade on his watch, while failing to offer the island consistent support. His tariffs on all manner of inputs will raise the costs of manufacturing in America; promised duties on chip imports will hurt American customers. He thrives on uncertainty, but chipmakers require stability.

A sensible chip policy would make it attractive to build fabs in America by easing rules over permits and creating programmes to train engineers. Instead of using tariffs as leverage, the government should welcome the imports of machinery and people that support chipmaking. Given the bipartisan consensus on the importance of semiconductors, the administration should seek a policy that has Democratic support—with the promise of continuity from one president to the next.

Economic nationalists should also see the progress of chipmakers in allied countries as a contribution to America’s security. Samsung is aiming to start producing 2nm chips in South Korea later this year. Rapidus, a well-funded chipmaking startup in Japan, is making impressive progress. Both countries have a tradition of manufacturing excellence, and may have a better shot at emulating Taiwan.

The chipmaking industry took decades to evolve. It is built for an age of globalisation. When economic nationalists build their policies on autarky, they are setting themselves a needlessly hard task—if not an impossible one. ■

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Thursday, June 12, 2025

Jun 12 - The Achingly Simple Lesson That Democrats Seem Determined Not to Learn

June 10, 2025


By Michael Hirschorn


Mr. Hirschorn is the chief executive of Ish Entertainment.


As Democrats continue to sort through the wreckage of the November election, one idea that keeps circulating is to mint a “liberal Joe Rogan,” or better yet, create a parallel ecosystem of left-liberal podcasters to rival the network that has emerged on the right.


It’s not that they admire Mr. Rogan — his statements about transgender people and race so horrified liberals that many went ballistic when Senator Bernie Sanders accepted his surprise endorsement early in the 2020 presidential race. In 2024 Kamala Harris kept her distance, and Mr. Rogan gave his endorsement to Donald Trump. It’s Mr. Rogan’s influence that Democrats covet, an influence that has only increased in recent years with the popularity of a new crowd of male podcasters whom he has supported and who are now starting to rival his popularity. Amid a widespread — and widely mocked — effort by Democrats to reach young men, several elite liberal groups have sprung into action to counter the Rogan effect. One for-profit startup called AND Media (which stands for Achieve Narrative Dominance) hopes to raise $70 million to fund online influencers. Another similar undertaking has connections to the former Google chief executive Eric Schmidt.


These efforts are unlikely to succeed, because they’re based on a fundamental misunderstanding of what these podcasts are and why they are so popular.


Two decades ago, Andrew Breitbart articulated the theory that “politics is downstream from culture.” That’s no longer quite right. Culture now is politics, and these podcasters — or bro-casters — are a perfect example of why.


Like Mr. Rogan, the podcasters Andrew Schulz, Tim Dillon and Theo Von all came up through the comedy circuit. They have no coherent political agenda, no detailed policy analysis, no claim to expertise of any kind. In fact, it’s the opposite. Mr. Schulz and Mr. Von recently shared their amazement at discovering that 27 million Soviets died during World War II — “That’s unbelievable! You don’t ever hear about that,” Mr. Von marveled.


So trying to create an AstroTurfed lefty version of the bro-casters, trying to find equal and opposite spokesmen for the causes that Democrats care about, won’t work, because these guys aren’t spokesmen for anything.


They’re, frankly, weirder than that. The ideas they articulate can seem 10,000-monkeys-level random, ranging from half-baked libertarianism to late-stage lib-owning to just-asking-questions ramblings about how maybe we need a Nayib Bukele-type dictator here in the United States. Mr. Dillon, a frequent guest of Mr. Rogan’s, last year endorsed his “friend” Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for president: “He’s out there just going: This is my truth.” Mr. Rogan is prone to “innumerable stoner overreaches that, without fail, continue to land him in ludicrously incoherent political territory,” Luke Winkie recently noted in Slate, including going on record as supporting both universal health care and the idea that Hitler has gotten a bad rap.


But if the bro-casters lack a coherent policy agenda, what they do have is a well of knowledge, honed from years of touring the country from one chuckle hut to another, about how to talk to people without talking down to them. And in a world where authority of all kinds (medical, professorial, journalistic, political) is in decline, where information from top-down media is losing ground to an infinitude of bottom-up sources, this precise kind of realness matters. Authenticity, it seems, is what fills the void when authority dies.


Democrats long since forgot how to communicate that way. They operate on the assumption that ideas and governance are the primary things that move people. That’s why we get endless debates about what Democrats should stand for that are of interest to insiders and hugely off-putting to everyone else. The problem isn’t getting the ideology right; it’s using words like “ideology” to begin with. Democrats are very much not out there going: This is my truth.


If there’s one issue that unites the bro-casters — beyond the need to find three hours of content — it’s a disdain for wokeness. “The word ‘retarded’ is back,” Mr. Rogan recently announced, ridiculously, “and it’s one of the great culture victories.” Mr. Schulz wound up his latest Netflix standup special with a long bit, the upshot of which was basically that people from Staten Island were a super race of “Teenage Mutant Ninja Retards.”


Modern bro-caster culture emerged in part as a response to the enforced sensitivity of #MeToo and Black Lives Matter, which left many young men feeling vilified for their purported privilege. The comedy of that time mocked the latest language strictures, whichever new initial was being added to the L.G.B.T.Q. array and anything trans. I first encountered Mr. Schulz in 2018 at New York’s Comedy Cellar, when he was a successful but not yet famous touring stand-up comic, developing what would become his signature style: marching up to the line of woke heresy and letting the tension hang there before performing a quick switcheroo. One bit: Schulz introduces the topic of trans women in sports. Nervous anticipation from the audience. Punchline: He’s in favor, because “then women will know what white people went through when we let Black people play sports.” Anti-woke made Mr. Schulz one of the country’s top comics, and now one of its more prominent podcasters.


The bro-caster ecosystem is a safe space for men to such a comical degree that it seems less menacing than juvenile. Only in this world could Eric Adams bond with Mr. Schulz over the need for a New York outpost of a particularly baller Miami strip club. By my rough count, fewer than two dozen of Mr. Von’s last 467 shows, spanning almost a decade, featured women, and two of them were Nikki Glaser. But male doesn’t necessarily mean brutish or insensitive. On air, Mr. Von can be emotionally finely tuned, open to thoughtful discussions of mental illness and parenting. Last year, he had an uncannily human conversation with Mr. Trump about, amazingly, cocaine. “Is our conversation going OK?” he asked during an epic dorkfest with Mark Zuckerberg in April. A few years ago, Mr. Schulz let an increasingly drunk Alex Jones wave around a machete and offer to castrate any boy who wanted to be trans — but looking past the theatrics, I find that Mr. Schulz circa 2025 is against racism, welcoming to gay people, largely chivalrous to women, agreeable about ideological differences. He’s decent.


If the Democrats ever want to get their groove back, it won’t work to tune out these folks, or to insist that engaging them is just feeding the trolls. It was the shunning of characters like Mr. Schulz and Mr. Dillon that led them to position themselves as free-speech warriors — the same ressentiment that helped fuel Trump’s victory.


Schulz describes himself as a Bernie bro who voted for Trump not because of any intrinsic conservatism but because Democrats lost their chill. Liberals used to get all the action, Mr. Schulz said recently; now, conservatives are the ones who live large “and say whatever they want.” The Bulwark’s Tim Miller, fully taking the bait, called this “possibly the stupidest argument for a transition to MAGA that I’ve ever heard.” But this is sort of making his point, no?


So maybe instead of disdaining these guys and looking for liberal alternatives, Democrats should be taking a deeper lesson from bro-caster success: Get past litmus-test politics and focus-tested messaging. Relearn how to talk like nonpoliticians. Then get over yourselves, go on these shows and mix it up in this brave new world of anything goes.


The podcaster ecosystem is at least somewhat porous, a buzzing hive where there’s plenty of room for fresh perspectives. And the bros, Rogan excepted, seem to be spending a touch less time making fun of wokeness these days — that shtick is less daring now that you can call in the president of the United States for air cover.


Mr. Schulz has claimed on air that he has repeatedly asked Democratic pols (including Ms. Harris) to come on his show and that none agreed. Which is why it felt like a breakthrough when Pete Buttigieg, the former secretary of transportation and a veteran of dozens of Fox News guest spots, spent nearly three hours on the show in April. Go listen to it. It’s amazing. Once Mr. Buttigieg weathers a couple of pro forma gay jibes, he has the opportunity to speak at length, in detail, with humor and passion, about why Trumpism is bad for America. Mr. Schulz, in turn, lays out a road map for left-of-center politicians looking to reach wayward men that every Democratic consultant should pay heed to. Mr. Buttigieg and Mr. Schulz talk about being girl dads, Mr. Buttigieg tells the story of adopting twin mixed-race infants and why public investment is a necessary handmaiden to private-sector growth. He uses a few curse words. Mr. Schulz jokes that he may be turning liberal. And, with the necessary caveat that the bro-casters seem to agree with whatever their guests say, maybe he is.


This May, Mr. Sanders sat with Mr. Schulz and his team. Mr. Sanders’s ability to articulate progressive ideas without getting mired in identity politics was on full display. Mr. Schulz introduced him as “the last honest man in politics,” and — after Mr. Sanders recited the lineup of the 1957 Brooklyn Dodgers — said, “I think now we call that autism.” Mr. Sanders laughed. Mr. Schulz asked smart, incisive, generous questions that brought out the best in his guest. And Mr. Sanders got access to a huge audience of people who have little interest in traditional political content.


Who knows if things would’ve been different had Ms. Harris not avoided the bro-casters last year. Either way, fellow Democrats should take the opposite approach. They’d reach a bigger audience and they’d learn a lot, even if they do get called “retarded.”

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Jun 10 - Jenny - Michelle - Goldberg - This Is What Autocracy Looks Like

Jun 10 - Jenny - Michelle - Goldberg - This Is What Autocracy Looks Like

June 9, 2025, 8:30 p.m. ET

By Michelle Goldberg


Since Donald Trump was elected again, I’ve feared one scenario above all others: that he’d call out the military against people protesting his mass deportations, putting America on the road to martial law. Even in my more outlandish imaginings, however, I thought that he’d need more of a pretext to put troops on the streets of an American city — against the wishes of its mayor and governor — than the relatively small protests that broke out in Los Angeles last week.


In a post-reality environment, it turns out, the president didn’t need to wait for a crisis to launch an authoritarian crackdown. Instead, he can simply invent one.


It’s true that some of those protesting Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids in Los Angeles have been violent; on Sunday one man was arrested for allegedly tossing a Molotov cocktail at a police officer, and another was accused of driving a motorcycle into a line of cops. Such violence should be condemned both because it’s immoral and because it’s wildly counterproductive; each burning Waymo or smashed storefront is an in-kind gift to the administration.


But the idea that Trump needed to put soldiers on the streets of the city because riots were spinning out of control is pure fantasy. “Today, demonstrations across the city of Los Angeles remained peaceful, and we commend all those who exercised their First Amendment rights responsibly,” said a statement issued by the Los Angeles Police Department on Saturday evening. That was the same day Trump overrode Gov. Gavin Newsom and federalized California’s National Guard, under a rarely used law meant to deal with “rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the government of the United States.”



Then, on Monday, with thousands of National Guard troops already deployed to the city, the administration said it was also sending 700 Marines. The Los Angeles police don’t seem to want the Marines there; in a statement, the police chief, Jim McDonnell, said, “The arrival of federal military forces in Los Angeles — absent clear coordination — presents a significant logistical and operational challenge for those of us charged with safeguarding this city.” But for Trump, safeguarding the city was never the point.


It’s important to understand that for this administration, protests needn’t be violent to be considered an illegitimate uprising. The presidential memorandum calling out the National Guard refers to both violent acts and any protests that “inhibit” law enforcement. That definition would seem to include peaceful demonstrations around the site of ICE raids. In May, for example, armed federal agents stormed two popular Italian restaurants in San Diego looking for undocumented workers; they handcuffed staff members and took four people into custody. As they did so, an outraged crowd gathered outside, chanting “shame” and for a time blocking the agents from leaving. Under Trump’s order, the military could target these people as insurrectionists.


The administration, after all, has every reason to want to intimidate those who might take part in civil disobedience. Violent protests play into its hands; peaceful ones threaten the absurd narrative it’s trying to bludgeon America into accepting. Just look at the lengths to which it’s going to silence David Huerta, the president of the Service Employees International Union of California. Last week, Huerta was arrested after sitting on a sidewalk and blocking a gate while protesting an immigration raid at a work site in Los Angeles. While he was being detained, he was knocked to the ground, resulting in his hospitalization. On Monday, the Justice Department charged him with “conspiracy to impede an officer,” a felony that carries a maximum prison term of six years.


Trump also, on Monday, called for the arrest of Newsom. If you saw all this in any other country — soldiers sent to crush dissent, union leaders arrested, opposition politicians threatened — it would be clear that autocracy had arrived. The question, now, is whether Americans who hate tyranny can be roused to respond.


Many people have speculated that the confrontation in Los Angeles will play into Trump’s hands, allowing him to pose as a champion of law and order bringing criminal mobs to heel. Maybe they’re right; Trump is a master demagogue with a gift for creating the scenes of conflict his supporters crave. We now know that Dr. Phil was on the ground with ICE during the raids that set off the Los Angeles unrest, filming a prime-time special. The administration appeared to want a spectacle.


Public opinion, however, isn’t set in stone, which is why it’s important for everyone who has a platform — politicians, veterans, cultural and religious leaders — to denounce the administration’s authoritarian overreach. Administration officials like Stephen Miller are pushing the idea that Los Angeles is “occupied territory,” as evidenced by the foreign flags some protesters are carrying. Americans who still have hope for democracy should be saying, as loudly and as often as they can, that this is an insultingly stupid lie to justify a dictatorial power grab. Maybe it will turn out that the truth is no match for right-wing propaganda, but if that’s the case, we were already lost.


It’s worth remembering that in 2020, when Trump went to St. John’s Church for a photo op after U.S. Park Police and Secret Service officers had tear-gassed protesters, he was widely condemned by both religious leaders and former high-ranking military officers, forcing the administration onto the defensive. A poll conducted a little later found that two-thirds of Americans blamed him for increasing racial tensions. It is not a given that disorder favors Trump, especially when it’s clear that he’s the one instigating it. But there need to be strong voices countering his blunt fictions.


Yes, America has lurched to the right since Trump’s first term, and he can get away with abuses now that would have set off mass outrage then. Plenty of Democrats, burned by the backlash against Black Lives Matter and large-scale illegal immigration, would rather not have a fight over disorder in Los Angeles. “For months, Democrats scarred by the politics of the issue sought to sidestep President Donald Trump’s immigration wars — focusing instead on the economy, tariffs or, in the case of deportations, due process concerns,” reported Politico.


But there’s no sidestepping a president deploying the military in an American city based on ludicrous falsehoods about a foreign invasion. Indeed, it’s hard to think of a clearer signpost on the road to dictatorship. This Saturday, on Trump’s birthday, he’s planning a giant military parade in Washington, ostensibly to celebrate the Army’s 250th anniversary. Tanks have been photographed en route to the city, the Lincoln Memorial standing tragically in the background, like an image from some Hollywood dystopia.


On that day, there will be demonstrations all over the country under the rubric “No Kings.” I desperately hope that Trump’s attempt to quash protest ends up fueling it. Those who want to live in a free country may be scared, but they shouldn’t be cowed.

Jun 10 - Michelle - Emptywheel - No, Trump Voters Did Not Vote for This

Jun 10 - Michelle - Emptywheel - No, Trump Voters Did Not Vote for This

emptywheel / Jun 9



A disavowal of Stephen Miller’s immigration crackdown by Ileana Garcia, one of the founders of Latinas for Trump, has generated a lot of attention and some outrage.





Many lefties are criticizing Garcia for perceived denial about who and what she voted for, or for being a dumbass for pretending they didn’t enable this. It’s absolutely true that anyone who voted for Trump voted for the way he deployed bigotry, twice, to win. Garcia owns that.


But she didn’t vote for the specific crackdown that is currently going on. And the distinction matters.


The pushback against Garcia’s comment was largely a response to Miami Herald’s headline. “‘Inhumane:’ Latinas for Trump founder condemns White House immigration crackdown,” or a few paragraphs taken out of context.


Her full statement — as well as that of Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar, to which she was responding — is more nuanced than that. Both are complaining about the practice of arresting people as they attend court hearings or routine check-ins as part of adjudication of legal claims. Here’s Garcia’s comment.


[W]hat we are witnessing are arbitrary measures to hunt down people who are complying with their immigration hearings—in many cases, with credible fear of persecution claims.


Salazar explained the point at more length.


Arrests in immigration courts, including people with I-220A and pending asylum cases, the termination of the CHNV program, which has left thousands exposed to deportation, and other similar measures, all jeopardize our duty to due process that every democracy must guarantee.


I remain clear in my position: anyone with a pending asylum case, status-adjustment petition, or similar claim deserves to go through the legal process.


That is, both women (and I presume Mario Díaz-Balart and Carlos Giménez, with whom Salazar says she’ll be meeting with Kristi Noem after several weeks of seeking a meeting) are primarily complaining that, to ratchet up arrests, ICE is arresting people as they arrive for scheduled meetings that are part of their due process to remain in the US.


This is the tactic that lefties have condemned when it happened to people like Mohsen Mahdawi or Carolina or Gladis Yolanda Chavez Pineda or Carol Hui or VML’s mother, every one of them the subject of local or national attention.


You can argue that these Cuban-Americans are mostly pushing to protect their own communities; Salazar specifically mentioned the parole covering Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan migrants, which Trump recently revoked with SCOTUS approval. You’d be right! Four South Florida politicians are fighting to protect their constituents.


You can argue Garcia should have seen this coming when Trump and JD Vance and Stephen Miller falsely accused Haitian migrants of eating house pets. You’d be right! Of course, that comment targeted Haitians in Ohio, not Cubans in South Florida. Salazar even specifically excluded Haitians from those migrants fleeing the “most brutal regimes in our hemisphere.”


Nevertheless, Trump’s promise to deport millions was premised on deporting immigrants with no legal basis to be in the US, not those who are abiding by a legal process to stay (of which Florida must have a disproportionate number).


No person voted for that because that’s not what Trump ran on (though Miller and JD did call the Haitians illegal, which should have been the tip-off).


And even if Garcia and Salazar were making a more general comment — that Stephen Miller’s focus on longterm migrants, rather than just criminal aliens (both women use somewhat ambiguous language here, with Garcia using the term “criminal aliens” and Salazar referring to “criminal[s] here illegally”) — they’d have some basis for their argument.


I contemplated reposting this entire post, from Day 8 of Trump 2.0, to address this issue. But the record shows that:


During a key part of the campaign, Trump, Miller, and Republican members of Congress claimed there were hundreds of thousands of aliens known to have committed a crime wandering the streets; it was based on a misrepresentation of DHS’s tracker of aliens anywhere in the US, the vast majority of whom are in prison either awaiting trial or serving a sentence. Those were the people Trump promised to deport; he just lied about how many of them there were.

Miller built another part of his campaign on a lie about Tren de Aragua, and when the Intelligence Community debunked that lie both before and after he relied on it in an attempt to bypass due process, he lied some more. Those were the Venezuelan criminals Miller made up who would be covered by the CHNV parole cited by Salazar.

Within a week of inauguration, as experts began to predict the inevitable outcome of Miller’s ICE quotas (then half of what he has since ratcheted them up to) — that ICE would focus on easy targets who were not known criminals rather than hunting down the far rarer criminal alien Miller lied about during the campaign — Miller started redefining the term “criminal alien” to encompass the easier, peaceful targets his quotas would inevitably target. CATO (currently one of Miller’s favorite targets) reported that this focus on numbers rather than criminals would have the effect of drawing law enforcement away from the most dangerous people.




Those are the people — long-term US residents not known to have violated any law — whom Miller has redefined into the criminal aliens about which he lied during the campaign.


You can absolutely hold politicians like Garcia and Salazar responsible for helping to elect Trump, for enabling his grotesque assault on migrants who don’t happen to be Cuban.


But it is nevertheless the case that Miller got Trump elected promising to round up a bunch of people he portrayed as violent criminals, and has since redefined the term “criminal alien” to justify going after people in the US even if they are pursuing a legal claim of asylum.


Garcia and Salazar let themselves buy into a lie, but it was a lie. A series of lies. All designed to move the goalposts to encompass people that South Florida politicians rightly treat as part of their community.


And even if you think Garcia and Salazar let themselves buy into the bigotry, for the moment, who cares? You’ve got powerful Republicans calling out Trump’s lies, with Garcia targeting Stephen Miller and his quotas by name.


One of the most important things that we could achieve, in the short term, to discredit Trump’s ICE crackdown (and with it, Trump’s military invasion of Los Angeles) is to point out that Trump didn’t run on deporting people who were pursuing legal status in the US, and he strongly implied that his promise of mass deportations was a promise to deport actual criminals (about the numbers of which Trump and Miller lied), not long-term US residents who had put down roots. One of the most important things we need the public to understand is that the events in Los Angeles were incited by Miller’s impossible quotas for arrests, 3,000 a day, quotas that from the start were guaranteed to shift ICE’s focus away from dangerous people and onto mothers working at the local waffle restaurant. Even if the only thing such pushback achieves is to end the practice of arresting people when they show up for scheduled check-ins, it would do a lot to keep families together, it eliminate one of the most egregious practices.


Prominent Republicans want to — correctly — blame Stephen Miller for the chaos that has erupted.


Don’t get in their way! At this point, any pushback on Miller’s gulag, any focus on him and his lies, is welcome.


We will not make it through this unless we exploit every single break that Republicans make with Trump. We will not make it through this unless we convince a significant number of Trump voters to push back or better yet disavow their vote.


Only if we do make it through this do we have time for recriminations against the people who allowed themselves to believe a lie.



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Monday, June 9, 2025

Jun 09 - Today’s reading

Jun 09 - Today’s reading


Constitutional Amendments

Lawyers, Guns & Money by Dan Nexon / Jun 8, 2025 at 4:17 AM



I’ve argued that the defects of the U.S. Constitution — as interpreted by the Roberts Court and exploited by the Trump administration — leave us no choice but to pursue a long-term goal of amending it. I’ve also hypothesized that the very process of advocating for a set of amendments could be politically useful from a messaging perspective. Consider how the politics of the Republican “balanced budget amendment” during Clinton’s first term — an amendment which, in fact, almost made it to the states for ratification.


The idea — and I should be clear that this entire post falls under the category of “spitballing” or “brainstorming” or at maybe even “pub conversation” — requires relatively simple amendments that a) are good ideas and b) structure debate in a way that is advantageous to pro-democracy reformers. So let me put it this way: if we had already decided on the strategy, what would those amendments look like?


My inclination favors short, modular amendments. I’d call the larger proposal, or al least the platform that included them, something like “The New Declaration of Independence” and then sort them into broad categories along the lines of “No More Kings” or “No Taxation without Representation” or “Independence from Corruption.” Here are some examples:


No One is Above the Law

Presidents and former Presidents enjoy no immunity from criminal prosecution, including for actions within their conclusive or preclusive constitutional authority.

However, the President of the United States is presumptively protected from federal criminal prosecution during, and only during, his time in office. This protection does not extend to former Presidents, nor to any person who has been elected President more than twice or who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than ten years.

Congress has the authority to suspend a President’s protection from federal criminal prosecution by resolution, provided the resolution is passed by three-fifths majorities of both houses. The procedure for suspending this protection shall otherwise follow those established for impeachment and conviction, and may be pursued in conjunction with that process.

No President may pardon himself. No President may pardon a former President if he served as Vice President at any time during the former President’s term of office.

The President is not a King

The executive powers vested in a President of the United States of America are enumerated in Article II, and shall not be construed to otherwise include powers or prerogatives enjoyed by the Kings of England or other monarchs.


Protecting the Integrity of the Pardon Power

 The Power of the President to Grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States is hereby amended and qualified:


Congress shall, within three months of the adoption of this amendment, establish and provide for a Federal Board of Reprieves and Pardons.

The size of the Board shall be established by statute, but shall include at least five voting officers. Its voting officers must be either former or sitting member of the federal judiciary. Current members of the Supreme Court of the United States are ineligible for appointment to the Board.

No more than one-third of the Board’s members may have been nominated to the federal judiciary by any single President of the United States, regardless of whether that President served consecutive or non-consecutive terms.

Except in cases involving capital punishment, the President may grant Reprieves or Pardons only to individuals who have been vetted and recommended by a plurality of the aforementioned Board within the prior six months — but only if the plurality vote included members who were nominated to the federal judiciary by at least two different Presidents.

Neither the President nor the Vice President may attempt to influence the recommendations of the Board Evidence of such influence will constitute grounds for legal challenges to a Reprieve or Pardon, as well as provide a basis for impeachment proceedings.

If the President declines to issue a pardon to such an individual, the Board may reconsider and resubmit their recommendation after six months has elapsed.

Presidents may, in cases involving capital punishment, grant a temporary Reprieve pending full consideration of the case by the Board within the next six months. If the Board declines to recommend a permanent Reprieve, the President is empowered to Commute the sentence to one of life imprisonment. The use of these powers does not constitute “influence” as described in Section 5.

This last one is more complicated than is ideal. And obviously we’d want an amendment to enshrine the constitutionality of independent agencies, irrespective of whether or not the “President is not a King” amendment (or its equivalent) already does so.


Ideas? As I said, consider this an opportunity to think about constitutional reforms, especially ones that essentially reaffirm longstanding precedents or attempt to reign in abuse of power.


Apologies for typos, but I really can’t spend any more time on this.


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A shattered world: Revisiting “1984”

Lawyers, Guns & Money by Paul Campos / Jun 7, 2025 at 10:36 PM







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I’ve been re-reading 1984 from beginning to end, which is something I don’t think I’ve done since 1984 itself, when I was graduate TA for a class about the book. I’ve looked up certain passages many times in the interim, but I’ve been struck by how I had forgotten much of the book’s actual plot.


One thing I had also sort of forgotten is what an incredibly grim book it is. Taken as prophecy — which in some ways it was clearly intended to be, although Orwell also emphasized that it was a satire of the present rather than a literal prediction of the future — the book’s message could be reduced to this famous passage:


He paused, and for a moment assumed again his air of a schoolmaster questioning a promising pupil: ‘How does one man assert his power over another, Winston?’


Winston thought. ‘By making him suffer,’ he said.


‘Exactly. By making him suffer. Obedience is not enough. Unless he is suffering, how can you be sure that he is obeying your will and not his own? Power is in inflicting pain and humiliation. Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing. Do you begin to see, then, what kind of world we are creating? It is the exact opposite of the stupid hedonistic Utopias that the old reformers imagined. A world of fear and treachery is torment, a world of trampling and being trampled upon, a world which will grow not less but more merciless as it refines itself. Progress in our world will be progress towards more pain. The old civilizations claimed that they were founded on love or justice. Ours is founded upon hatred. In our world there will be no emotions except fear, rage, triumph, and self-abasement. Everything else we shall destroy everything. Already we are breaking down the habits of thought which have survived from before the Revolution. We have cut the links between child and parent, and between man and man, and between man and woman. No one dares trust a wife or a child or a friend any longer. But in the future there will be no wives and no friends. Children will be taken from their mothers at birth, as one takes eggs from a hen. The sex instinct will be eradicated. Procreation will be an annual formality like the renewal of a ration card. We shall abolish the orgasm. Our neurologists are at work upon it now. There will be no loyalty, except loyalty towards the Party. There will be no love, except the love of Big Brother. There will be no laughter, except the laugh of triumph over a defeated enemy. There will be no art, no literature, no science. When we are omnipotent we shall have no more need of science. There will be no distinction between beauty and ugliness. There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always — do not forget this, Winston — always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — for ever.’


Part of what gives the book its extraordinary bleakness is that Orwell was a sick and eventually dying man, as he wrote it in fits and starts between 1944 and 1948, doing much of the writing on a primitive and isolated island off Scotland. (Orwell died of tuberculosis just seven months after the book was published in the summer of 1949).


But here I want to focus on another factor, which is that it’s difficult to appreciate today what an utterly catastrophic period the years 1914-1945 — essentially all of Orwell’s life after his early childhood, as he was born in 1903 — was for the world view that had dominated much of intellectual life, at least in the western world, for many decades prior to that. Orwell captures this shift in an essay about H.G. Wells’s failure to grasp the meaning of Nazism:


 If one looks through nearly any book that [Wells] has written in the last forty years one finds the same idea constantly recurring: the supposed antithesis between the man of science who is working towards a planned World State and the reactionary who is trying to restore a disorderly past. In novels, Utopias, essays, films, pamphlets, the antithesis crops up, always more or less the same. On the one side science, order, progress, internationalism, aeroplanes, steel, concrete, hygiene: on the other side war, nationalism, religion, monarchy, peasants, Greek professors, poets, horses. History as he sees it is a series of victories won by the scientific man over the romantic man. Now, he is probably right in assuming that a ‘reasonable,’ planned form of society, with scientists rather than witch-doctors in control, will prevail sooner or later, but that is a different matter from assuming that it is just round the corner. There survives somewhere or other an interesting controversy which took place between Wells and Churchill at the time of the Russian Revolution. Wells accuses Churchill of not really believing his own propaganda about the Bolsheviks being monsters dripping with blood, etc., but of merely fearing that they were going to introduce an era of common sense and scientific control, in which flag-wavers like Churchill himself would have no place. Churchill’s estimate of the Bolsheviks, however, was nearer the mark than Wells’s. The early Bolsheviks may have been angels or demons, according as one chooses to regard them, but at any rate they were not sensible men. They were not introducing a Wellsian Utopia but a Rule of the Saints, which like the English Rule of the Saints, was a military despotism enlivened by witchcraft trials. The same misconception reappears in an inverted form in Wells’s attitude to the Nazis. Hitler is all the war-lords and witch-doctors in history rolled into one. Therefore, argues Wells, he is an absurdity, a ghost from the past, a creature doomed to disappear almost immediately. But unfortunately the equation of science with common sense does not really hold good. The aeroplane, which was looked forward to as a civilising influence but in practice has hardly been used except for dropping bombs, is the symbol of that fact. Modern Germany is far more scientific than England, and far more barbarous. Much of what Wells has imagined and worked for is physically there in Nazi Germany. The order, the planning, the State encouragement of science, the steel, the concrete, the aeroplanes, are all there, but all in the service of ideas appropriate to the Stone Age. Science is fighting on the side of superstition. But obviously it is impossible for Wells to accept this. It would contradict the world-view on which his own works are based. The war-lords and the witch-doctors must fail, the common-sense World State, as seen by a nineteenth-century Liberal whose heart does not leap at the sound of bugles, must triumph. Treachery and defeatism apart, Hitler cannot be a danger. That he should finally win would be an impossible reversal of history, like a Jacobite restoration.


Orwell conceived the plan for 1984 while the Nazis were still very much not defeated, and he wrote it in the shadow of the triumph of a Stalinist dictatorship which was every bit as totalitarian — and indeed quite a bit more “rational” in modern bureaucratic terms — as the Nazis themselves.


The other huge development that shaped the writing of the novel was the invention and deployment of the atom bomb, which of course did not exist when he began writing the book. The novel imagines some sort of devastating nuclear exchange in the 1950s, after which three mega-states divide the world up to avoid the complete annihilation of any form of civilization. Orwell’s thoughts on the atom bomb itself are also interesting:


Considering how likely we all are to be blown to pieces by it within the next five years, the atomic bomb has not roused so much discussion as might have been expected. The newspapers have published numerous diagrams, not very helpful to the average man, of protons and neutrons doing their stuff, and there has been much reiteration of the useless statement that the bomb “ought to be put under international control.” But curiously little has been said, at any rate in print, about the question that is of most urgent interest to all of us, namely: “How difficult are these things to manufacture?” . . .


From various symptoms one can infer that the Russians do not yet possess the secret of making the atomic bomb; on the other hand, the consensus of opinion seems to be that they will possess it within a few years. So we have before us the prospect of two or three monstrous super-states, each possessed of a weapon by which millions of people can be wiped out in a few seconds, dividing the world between them. It has been rather hastily assumed that this means bigger and bloodier wars, and perhaps an actual end to the machine civilisation. But suppose – and really this the likeliest development – that the surviving great nations make a tacit agreement never to use the atomic bomb against one another? Suppose they only use it, or the threat of it, against people who are unable to retaliate? In that case we are back where we were before, the only difference being that power is concentrated in still fewer hands and that the outlook for subject peoples and oppressed classes is still more hopeless.


This was, I would say, a very plausible hypothesis in the immediate aftermath of World War II. (The other big influence on Orwell’s thought here was James Burnham’s The Managerial Revolution, which he discusses in another interesting essay).


In short, 1984 was written by a man whose entire life had been dominated by the spectacle of two incredibly destructive and insane wars, that killed collectively more than 100 million people, the industrialized mass murder of the Holocaust, the global crisis of capitalism in the 1930s, the rise of a new form of comprehensive despotism in the totalitarian regimes of Germany and the USSR, and the invention of a weapon via the most advanced form of scientific technology that clearly had the potential to destroy civilization.


This was a period that pretty much destroyed the sunny optimism of previous couple of generations, which assumed that science and technology, under the control of rational secular Enlightenment thinking, were guaranteeing that the arc of history was inevitably towards progress, understood in rational bureaucratic terms, and away from the superstitious despotism and desperate poverty of the past. (This of course was never a universally held view, but it was the dominant view of the educated classes in Europe and America from at least the late 18th century until August 1914).


1984 was written amid the smoldering wreckage of the events that had annihilated that optimism, which helps explain why it is such a remarkably grim dystopia.


. . . Should probably be a separate post, but I meant to mention how Trumpism must continue to seem like an inexplicable atavism to so many sensible liberals and moderates, in something like the way that Nazism appeared to be to Wells. History simply CANNOT reverse itself so grossly.


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We're Finally On Our Own: Trump Vs. America

The Rude Pundit by Unknown / Jun 9, 2025 at 8:03 AM

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There is something you need to understand about Donald Trump and a whole bunch of old motherfuckers from his generation: We look at the Kent State Massacre and think that it was a goddamn nightmare moment in 20th-century American history. Trump and his debased ilk look at it and think, "Too bad the National Guard didn't kill more of those fucking commie hippies." In fact, they look at the protests against the Vietnam War and think that cops should have busted more heads and the military should have opened fire to teach those America-hating kids a thing or two about who has power. The same goes for protests for civil rights, women's rights, and LGBT rights. They wanted more protesters killed as a way of ending the marches and what they saw as violent mobs (who, yes, occasionally did riot, especially when faced with police repression) because, see, they wanted to prove they love this country by purging anyone who didn't love it the same way. 

So you should know that, to most of us out here in Sanity Town, the protesters who blocked ICE officers in Paramount, California (after they had raided the local Home Depot and Dale's Donuts in Los Angeles County and picked up migrants who were not committing any crime other than the misdemeanor of being in a place without the right papers) might be heroic. But to Donald Trump, it's a chance for a re-do of the late 1960s and early 1970s, a perfect opportunity to show What We Should Have Done when a right-wing nutzoid was in the White House and didn't feel hindered by laws or morality. Trump has had a hard-on for murder for his whole pathetic, worthless life, valorizing mobsters and fellating dictators, pining for the chance to enact the dream of crazed conservatives since Kent State. 

Over on Truth Toilet, Trump has proclaimed, "A once great American City, Los Angeles, has been invaded and occupied by Illegal Aliens and Criminals.  Now violent, insurrectionist mobs are swarming and attacking our Federal Agents to try and stop our deportation operations — But these lawless riots only strengthen our resolve." There are no riots, only a few tense moments. The protests have been led by Americans. The deportations have rounded up legal immigrants. But that hasn't stopped Trump from calling on his slavering administration of dead-eyed drunks, pedophile enablers, puppy killers, and Stephen Miller to launch a potential military attack inside the country and "to take all such action necessary to liberate Los Angeles from the Migrant Invasion, and put an end to these Migrant riots. Order will be restored, the Illegals will be expelled, and Los Angeles will be set free." This is in addition to ordering 2000 National Guard soldiers to Los Angeles (and declaring victory before they ever hit the ground). By the way, you know how you know it wasn't "Migrant riots"? Because if it was migrants, ICE and federal agents would have used lethal ammo and not flash bangs or tear gas. 

In a memorandum to the dead-eyed drunk, the pedophile enabler, and the puppy killer, the rapist president said, without a hint of irony, "To the extent that protests or acts of violence directly inhibit the execution of the laws, they constitute a form of rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States." You got that? If you slightly inconvenience the mass arrest of peaceful people, it's a rebellion. If you, say, rampage through the Capitol, vandalize the building, attack law enforcement, and prevent the constitutionally-mandated certification of the electoral votes in a presidential election while threatening to hang the vice-president, that's just patriotism, motherfucker, and fuck you if you say otherwise.

Trump and his evil criminal crew are making statements that have no basis in reality to a media ecosystem that will report it as fact to an audience that will only ever see the lies. Where we see Immigration and Customs Enforcement brutally rounding up migrants working their decidedly non-gang-related jobs at construction sites and restaurant kitchens, where we get outraged when a legal migrant checks in at a courthouse as she awaits her asylum hearing and ICE arrests her, where we want to explode with anger at the psychological and physical torture of children seeing their parents arrested or being rounded up and zip-tied themselves, the MAGAnistas are making their brain-dead followers believe that, somehow, 21 million criminals got into the country and joined MS-13 or that Venezuelan gang they can't pronounce and they now are taking over cities that the brain-dead have never heard of before Fox "news" yelled it at them. Or, you know, a "Migrant Invasion."

I honestly don't know how we get out of this without the violence that Trump so obviously craves. Everything has been building to this chance, whether it was calling for the Central Park (now the Exonerated) Five to be executed, or encouraging protesters at his Nazi rallies be beaten, or watching to see if Mike Pence or Nancy Pelosi were murdered on January 6th, he wants to kill some people so fucking badly so he can join the ranks of those he worships, so he can make up for all those times the Marxist liberal crazies got away with it. Remember that he had to be talked out of unleashing the military on Black Lives Matter protests. He won't be convinced this time.

The hope, of course, is that the people of Los Angeles, with our encouragement and support, will stand firm in the first real test of Trump vs. America. And one place to look for resistance is the unions, which are being decimated by ICE raids on worksites. Because ICE arrested and injured David Huerta, the genuinely beloved president of the Service Employees International Union in California, the thugs have pissed off the roughly 2 million workers in the SEIU. That's going to activate more protests, and it already has, with events called in Boston, Portland, and elsewhere. It's pissed off the local Teamsters in L.A., which called for "An end to the militarization of immigration enforcement that terrorizes communities and disrupts lives." This is on top of the intense union support for Kilmar Abrego Garcia, which continues to this day.

Things are getting more intense in California, with protests growing across L.A., with Gov. Gavin Newsom finding his spine and calling for the National Guard to be withdrawn. By the time you read this, shit might have gotten even worse.

You're going to see the protesters blamed, but there is only one person who caused all this, all of it, all this shit that's fucking up our lives, and it's Donald Trump. He could end this by stopping his deranged mission to bleach the United States white. But I think the chaos is his Viagra and he's not gonna stop until he fucks us all.