Monday, September 16, 2024

What Abortion Bans Do to Doctors. By Sarah Zhang

Read time: 27 minutes


A photo of woman standing in shadowy hallway next to a patient exam room

Megan Kasper, an ob-gyn in Nampa, Idaho, considers herself pro-life, but she believes that the state’s abortion ban goes too far. (Bethany Mollenkof for The Atlantic)

‘That’s Something That You Won’t Recover From as a Doctor’

In Idaho and other states, draconian laws are forcing physicians to ignore their training and put patients’ lives at risk.


A photo of woman standing in shadowy hallway next to a patient exam room


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Kylie Cooper has seen all the ways a pregnancy can go terrifyingly, perilously wrong. She is an obstetrician who manages high-risk patients, also known as a maternal-fetal-medicine specialist, or MFM. The awkward hyphenation highlights the duality of the role. Cooper must care for two patients at once: mother and fetus, mom and baby. On good days, she helps women with complicated pregnancies bring home healthy babies. On bad days, she has to tell families that this will not be possible. Sometimes, they ask her to end the pregnancy; prior to the summer of 2022, she was able to do so.

That summer, Cooper felt a growing sense of dread. Thirteen states—including Idaho, where she practiced—had passed “trigger laws” meant to ban abortion if Roe v. Wade were overturned. When this happened, in June 2022, some of the bans proved so draconian that doctors feared they could be prosecuted for providing medical care once considered standard. Soon enough, stories began to emerge around the country of women denied abortions, even as their health deteriorated.


In Texas, a woman whose water broke at 18 weeks—far too early for her baby to survive outside the womb—was unable to get an abortion until she became septic. She spent three days in the ICU, and one of her fallopian tubes permanently closed from scarring. In Tennessee, a woman lost four pints of blood delivering her dead fetus in a hospital’s holding area. In Oklahoma, a bleeding woman with a nonviable pregnancy was turned away from three separate hospitals. One said she could wait in the parking lot until her condition became life-threatening.


Idaho’s ban was as strict as they came, and Cooper worried about her high-risk patients who would soon be forced to continue pregnancies that were dangerous, nonviable, or both.


She was confronted with this reality just two days after the ban went into effect, when a woman named Kayla Smith walked into Cooper’s office at St. Luke’s Boise Medical Center. (St. Luke’s was founded by an Episcopal bishop but is no longer religiously affiliated.) Smith was just over four months pregnant with her second baby—a boy she and her husband had already decided to name Brooks.


Her first pregnancy had been complicated. At 19 weeks, she’d developed severe preeclampsia, a condition associated with pregnancy that can cause life-threatening high blood pressure. She started seeing spots in her vision, and doctors worried that she would have a stroke. The only cure for preeclampsia is ending the pregnancy—with a delivery or an abortion. But Smith had chosen to stay pregnant, despite the risks, and she was able to eke it out just long enough on IV blood-pressure drugs for her daughter to be born as a preemie, at 33 weeks. The baby ultimately did well after a NICU stay, one of those success stories that MFMs say is the reason they do what they do.


This time, however, Smith’s ultrasound had picked up some worrying fetal anomalies, raising the possibility of Down syndrome. “Okay, that’s fine,” Smith remembers saying. “But is our son going to survive?” The answer, Cooper realized as she peered at his tiny heart on the ultrasound, was almost certainly no. The left half of the heart had barely formed; a pediatric cardiologist later confirmed that the anomaly was too severe to fix with surgery. Meanwhile, Smith’s early-onset preeclampsia in her first pregnancy put her at high risk of developing preeclampsia again. In short, her son would not survive, and staying pregnant would pose a danger to her own health. In the ultrasound room that day, Smith started to cry.


Cooper started to cry too. She was used to conversations like this—delivering what might be the worst news of someone’s life was a regular part of her job—but she was not used to telling her patients that they then had no choice about what to do next. Idaho’s new ban made performing an abortion for any reason a felony. It contained no true exceptions, allowing doctors only to mount an “affirmative defense” in court in cases involving rape or incest, or to prevent the death of the mother. This put the burden on physicians to prove that their illegal actions were justifiable. The punishment for violating the law was at least two years in prison, and up to five. The state also had a Texas-style vigilante law that allowed a family member of a “preborn child” to sue an abortion provider in civil court for at least $20,000.



Because Smith had not yet developed preeclampsia, her own life was not technically in danger, and she could not have an abortion in Idaho. Merely protecting her health was not enough. Lawmakers had made that clear: When asked about the health of the mother, Todd Lakey, one of the legislators who introduced the trigger ban in 2020, had said, “I would say it weighs less, yes, than the life of the child.” The fact that Smith’s baby could not survive didn’t matter; Idaho’s ban had no exception for lethal fetal anomalies.


If she did get preeclampsia, Smith remembers asking, when could her doctors intervene? Cooper wasn’t sure. Idaho’s abortion law was restrictive; it was also vague. All Cooper would say was When you are sick enough. Sick enough that she was actually in danger of dying? That seemed awfully risky; Smith had a two-and-a-half-year-old daughter who needed her mom. She also worried that if she continued her pregnancy, her unborn son would suffer. Would he feel pain, she asked, if he died after birth, as his underdeveloped heart tried in vain to pump blood? Cooper did not have a certain answer for this either.


Smith decided that getting an abortion as soon as possible, before her health was imperiled, would be best, even if that meant traveling to another state. She knew she wanted her abortion to be an early induction of labor—rather than a dilation and evacuation that removed the fetus with medical instruments—because she wanted to hold her son, to say goodbye. She found a hospital in Seattle that could perform an induction abortion and drove with her husband almost eight hours to get there. Unsure how much their insurance would cover, they took out a $16,000 personal loan. Two weeks later, Smith again drove to Seattle and back, this time to pick up her son’s ashes. The logistics kept her so busy, she told me, that “I wasn’t even allowed the space to grieve the loss of my son.”


If Smith had walked into Cooper’s office just a week earlier, none of this would have been necessary. She would have been able to get the abortion right there in Boise. But at least she had not yet been in immediate danger, and she’d made it to Seattle safely. Cooper worried about the next patient, and the next. What if someone came in tomorrow with, say, her water broken at 19 weeks, at risk of bleeding and infection? This happened regularly at her hospital.


As summer turned to fall, Cooper started to feel anxious whenever she was on call. “Every time the phone rang, or my pager went off, just this feeling of impending doom,” she told me. Would this call be the call? The one in which a woman would die on her watch? She began telling patients at risk for certain complications to consider staying with family outside Idaho, if they could, for part of their pregnancy—just in case they needed an emergency abortion.


Cooper described her feelings as a form of “moral distress,” a phrase I heard again and again in interviews with nearly three dozen doctors who are currently practicing or have practiced under post-Roe abortion restrictions. The term was coined in the 1980s to describe the psychological toll on nurses who felt powerless to do the right thing—unable to challenge, for example, doctors ordering painful procedures on patients with no chance of living. The concept gained traction among doctors during the coronavirus pandemic, when overwhelmed hospitals had to ration care, essentially leaving some patients to die.


In the two-plus years since Roe was overturned, a handful of studies have cataloged the moral distress of doctors across the country. In one, 96 percent of providers who care for pregnant women in states with restrictive laws reported feelings of moral distress that ranged from “uncomfortable” to “intense” to “worst possible.” In a survey of ob-gyns who mostly were not abortion providers, more than 90 percent said the laws had prevented them or their colleagues from providing standard medical care. They described feeling “muzzled,” “handcuffed,” and “straitjacketed.” In another study, ob‑gyn residents reported feeling like “puppets,” a “hypocrite,” or a “robot of the State” under the abortion bans.


The doctors I spoke with had a wide range of personal views on abortion, but they uniformly agreed that the current restrictions are unworkable as medical care. They have watched patients grow incredulous, even angry, upon learning of their limited options. But mostly, their patients are devastated. The bans have added heartbreak on top of heartbreak, forcing women grieving the loss of an unborn child to endure delayed care and unnecessary injury. For some doctors, this has been too much to bear. They have fled to states without bans, leaving behind even fewer doctors to care for patients in places like Idaho.


Cooper had moved to Idaho with her husband and kids in 2018, drawn to the natural beauty and to the idea of practicing in a state underserved by doctors: It ranked 47th in the nation in ob-gyns per capita then, and she was one of just nine MFMs in the state. But in that summer of 2022, she began to fear that she could no longer do right by her patients. What she knew to be medically and ethically correct was now legally wrong. “I could not live with myself if something bad happened to somebody,” she told me. “But I also couldn’t live with myself if I went to prison and left my family and my small children behind.”


At first, Cooper and other doctors distressed by Idaho’s ban hoped that it could be amended. If only lawmakers knew what doctors knew, they figured, surely they would see how the rule was harming women who needed an abortion for medical reasons. Indeed, as doctors began speaking up, publicly in the media and privately with lawmakers, several Idaho legislators admitted that they had not understood the impact of the trigger ban. Some had never thought that Roe would be overturned. The ban wasn’t really meant to become law—except now it had.


Frankly, doctors had been unprepared too. None had shown up to testify before the trigger ban quietly passed in 2020; they just weren’t paying attention. (Almost all public opposition at the time came from anti-abortion activists, who thought the ban was still too lax because it had carve-outs for rape and incest.) Now doctors found themselves taking a crash course in state politics. Lauren Miller, another MFM at St. Luke’s, helped form a coalition to get the Idaho Medical Association to put its full lobbying power in the state legislature behind medical exceptions, both for lethal fetal anomalies and for a mother’s health. Cooper and a fellow ob-gyn, Amelia Huntsberger, met with the governor’s office in their roles as vice chair and chair, respectively, of the Idaho section of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists.


The results of these efforts were disappointing. The lobbying culminated in a bill passed in March 2023 that offered doctors only marginally more breathing room than before. It changed the affirmative-defense statute into an actual exception to “prevent the death of the pregnant woman,” and it clarified that procedures to end ectopic and molar pregnancies—two types of nonviable abnormal pregnancies—were not to be considered abortions. But an exception for lethal fetal anomalies was a nonstarter. And an exception to prevent a life-threatening condition, rather than just preventing the death of the mother, was quashed after the chair of the Idaho Republican Party, Dorothy Moon, lambasted it in a public letter. The previous year, the Idaho GOP had adopted a platform declaring that “abortion is murder from the moment of fertilization” and rejected an exception for the life of the mother; it would reiterate that position in 2024.


Cooper and Huntsberger felt that their meeting with two of the governor’s staffers, in December 2022, had been futile as well. It had taken months to schedule a 20-minute conversation, and one of the staffers left in a hurry partway through. “There was a lot of acknowledgment of Yeah, this is really bad. The laws may not be written ideally,” Huntsberger told me. “There was also no action.”


After the meeting, the two women sat, dejected, in a rental car across from the state capitol, Huntsberger having traveled more than 400 miles from Sandpoint, Idaho, where she was a general ob-gyn in a rural hospital. That was when Cooper turned to her colleague and said she had something to confess: She had just been offered a job in Minnesota, a state where abortion is legal. And she was going to take it. She had reached a point where she just couldn’t do it anymore; she couldn’t keep turning away patients whom she had the skills to help, who needed her help. “There were so many drives home where I would cry,” she later told me.


Huntsberger was heartbroken to lose a colleague in the fight to change Idaho’s law. But she understood. She and her husband, an ER doctor, had also been talking about leaving. “It was once a month, and then once a week, and then every day,” she told me, “and then we weren’t sleeping.” They worried what might happen at work; they worried what it might mean for their three children. Was it time to give up on Idaho? She told Cooper that day, “Do what you need to do to care for yourself.” Cooper and her family moved to Minnesota that spring.


Huntsberger soon found a new job in Oregon, where abortion is also legal. A week later, her rural hospital announced the shutdown of its labor-and-delivery unit, citing Idaho’s “legal and political climate” as one reason. Staffing a 24/7 unit is expensive, and the ban had made recruiting ob-gyns to rural Idaho more difficult than ever. Even jobs in Boise that used to attract 15 or 20 applicants now had only a handful; some jobs have stayed vacant for two years. The three other ob-gyns at Huntsberger’s hospital all ended up finding new positions in states with fewer abortion restrictions.


During Huntsberger’s last month in Idaho, many of her patients scheduled their annual checkups early, so they could see her one last time to say goodbye. Over the years, she had gotten to know all about their children and puppies and gardens. These relationships were why she had become a small-town ob-gyn. She’d never thought she would leave.


Two other labor-and-delivery units have since closed in Idaho. The state lost more than 50 ob-gyns practicing obstetrics, about one-fifth of the total, in the first 15 months of the ban, according to an analysis by the Idaho Physician Well-Being Action Collaborative. Among MFMs, who deal with the most complicated pregnancies, the exodus has been even more dramatic. Of the nine practicing in 2022, Cooper was the first to leave, followed by Lauren Miller. A third MFM also left because of the ban. Then a fourth took a new job in Nevada and a fifth tried to retire, but their hospital was so short-staffed by then that they were both persuaded to stay at least part-time. That left only four other MFMs for the entire state.


The departure of so many physicians has strained Idaho’s medical system. After Cooper and others moved away, St. Luke’s had to rely on traveling doctors to fill the gaps; the hospital was eventually able to hire a few new MFMs, but the process took a long time. Meanwhile, ob-gyns—and family doctors, who deliver many of the babies in rural Idaho—had to manage more pregnancies, including high-risk ones, on their own. The overall lack of ob-gyns has also had implications for women who aren’t pregnant, and won’t be: Idaho is an attractive place to retire, and the state’s growing population of older women need gynecological care as they age into menopause and beyond.


Anne Feighner, an ob-gyn at St. Luke’s who has stayed in Boise for now, thinks all the time about her colleagues who have left. Every day, she told me in June, she drove by the house of her neighbor and fellow ob-gyn, Harmony Schroeder, who at the moment was packing up her home of 20 years for a job in Washington State. She, too, was leaving because of the abortion ban. Across the street is the pink house where Cooper used to live and where her daughters used to ride scooters out front.


“I still have a lot of guilt over leaving,” Cooper told me. She had made the decision in order to protect herself and her family. But what about her patients in Idaho, and her colleagues? By leaving, she had made a terrible situation for them even worse.


Sara Thomson works 12-hour shifts as an obstetrician at a Catholic hospital in Idaho; she is Catholic herself. Even before the abortion ban, her hospital terminated pregnancies only for medical reasons, per religious directive. “I had never considered myself a quote-unquote abortion provider, ” Thomson told me—at least not until certain kinds of care provided at her hospital became illegal under Idaho’s ban. It started to change how she thought of, as she put it, “the A-word.”


She told me about women who showed up at her hospital after their water had broken too early—well before the line of viability, around 22 weeks. Before then, a baby has no chance of survival outside the womb. This condition is known as previable PPROM, an acronym for “preterm premature rupture of membranes.”


In the very best scenario, a woman whose water breaks too early is able to stay pregnant for weeks or even months with enough amniotic fluid—the proverbial “water”—for her baby to develop normally. One doctor, Kim Cox, told me about a patient of his whose water broke at 16 weeks; she was able to stay pregnant until 34 weeks, and gave birth to a baby who fared well. Far more likely, though, a woman will naturally go into labor within a week of her water breaking, delivering a fetus that cannot survive. In the worst case, she could develop an infection before delivery. The infection might tip quickly into sepsis, which can cause the loss of limbs, fertility, and organ function—all on top of the tragedy of losing a baby.


In the very worst case, neither mother nor baby survives. In 2012, a 31-year-old woman in Ireland named Savita Halappanavar died after her water broke at 17 weeks. Doctors had refused to end her pregnancy, waiting for the fetus’s heartbeat to stop on its own. When it did, she went into labor, but by then, she had become infected. She died from sepsis three days later. Her death galvanized the abortion-rights movement in Ireland, and the country legalized the procedure in 2018.


Doctors in the United States now worry that abortion bans will cause entirely preventable deaths like Halappanavar’s; the possibility haunts Thomson. “We shouldn’t have to wait for a case like Savita’s in Idaho,” she said.


Previable PPROM is the complication that most troubles doctors practicing under strict abortion bans. These cases fall into the gap between what Idaho law currently allows (averting a mother’s death) and what many doctors want to be able to do (treat complications that could become deadly). The condition is not life-threatening right away, doctors told me, but they offered very different interpretations of when it becomes so—anywhere from the first signs of infection all the way to sepsis.


No surprise, then, that the trigger ban provoked immediate confusion among doctors over how and when to intervene in these cases. Initially, at least, they had more legal leeway to act quickly: The Biden administration had sued Idaho before the trigger ban went into effect, on the grounds that it conflicted with a Reagan-era federal law: the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act (EMTALA), which requires ERs to provide stabilizing treatment when a mother’s health, not just her life, is at risk. The Department of Health and Human Services interpreted “stabilizing treatment” to include emergency abortions, and a federal judge issued a partial injunction on Idaho’s ban, temporarily allowing such abortions to take place. But Idaho appealed the decision, and when the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear the case in January 2024, it stayed the injunction. With that, any protection that the federal law had granted Idaho doctors evaporated.


Thomson was still working under these severe restrictions when I met her in Boise this past June. She missed the days when her biggest problem at work was persuading her hospital to get a new ultrasound machine. A former military doctor, she struck me as soft-spoken but steely, like the most quietly formidable mom in your PTA. At one point, she pulled out a Trapper Keeper pocket folder of handwritten notes that she had taken after our first phone call.


The cases that most distressed her were ones of previable PPROM where the umbilical cord had prolapsed into the vagina, compressing the cord and exposing the baby and mother to infection. When this happens, Thomson said, a developing fetus cannot survive long: “The loss of the baby is sadly inevitable.”


Previously at her Catholic hospital, she would have offered to do what was best for the mother’s health: terminate the pregnancy before she became infected, so she could go home to recover. Now she told patients that they had no choice but to wait until they went into labor or became infected, or until the fetus’s heart stopped beating, slowly deprived of oxygen from its compressed umbilical cord, sometimes over the course of several days. Thomson did not know that a fetus could take so long to die this way—she was used to intervening much sooner. She found forcing her patients to wait like this “morally disgusting.”


“Every time I take care of a patient in this scenario, it makes me question why I’m staying here,” she told me. It ate at her to put her own legal interests before her patients’ health. She knew that if a zealous prosecutor decided she had acted too hastily, she could lose years of her career and her life defending herself, even if she were ultimately vindicated. But if she made a “self-protective” decision to delay care and a patient died, she wasn’t sure how she could go on. “From a moral perspective, that’s something that you won’t recover from as a doctor.”


At St. Luke’s, the largest hospital in Idaho, doctors started airlifting some patients with complications like previable PPROM out of state after the trigger ban took effect. Rather than delay care to comply with the law, they felt that the better—or, really, less bad—option was to get women care sooner by transferring them to Oregon, Washington, or Utah.


After the Supreme Court stayed the injunction allowing emergency abortions for a mother’s health, in January 2024, Idaho doctors became even more cautious about performing abortions, and the transfers picked up. Over the next three and a half months alone, St. Luke’s airlifted six pregnant women out of state. Smaller hospitals, too, transferred patients they would have previously treated.


One woman described fearing for her life as she was sent away from St. Luke’s last year, after losing a liter of blood when her placenta began detaching inside her. “I couldn’t comprehend,” she later told The New York Times. “I’m standing in front of doctors who know exactly what to do and how to help and they’re refusing to do it.” Another woman whose water broke early went into labor en route to Portland, her doctor told me, and delivered her fetus hundreds of miles from home. Her baby did not survive, and she was left to figure out how to get back to Idaho by herself—a medical transport is only a one-way ride. Another became infected and turned septic in the hours it took her to get to Salt Lake City. She had to go to the ICU, says Lauren Theilen, an MFM at the Utah hospital where she was taken. Other patients were sick when they left Idaho and even sicker when they arrived somewhere else.


Where exactly was that line between a patient who could be transferred versus one who needed care immediately, then and there? “I have sometimes wondered if I’m being selfish,” says Stacy Seyb, a longtime MFM at St. Luke’s, by putting patients through medical transfer to avoid legal sanction. But no doctor works alone in today’s hospitals. When one of the first legally ambiguous cases came up, Seyb saw the unease in the eyes of his team: the nurses, the techs, the anesthesiologists, the residents—all the people who normally assist in an emergency abortion. If he did something legally risky, they would also be exposed. Idaho’s law threatens to revoke the license of any health-care professional who assists in an abortion. He came to feel that there was no good option to protect both his team and his patients, but that an out-of-state transfer was often the least terrible one. In Portland or Seattle or Salt Lake City, health-care providers do not have to weigh their own interests against their patients’.


In April, when the Supreme Court heard the Idaho case, the media seized upon the dramatic image of women being airlifted out of state for emergency abortions. Justice Elena Kagan made a point of asking about it in oral arguments. In a press conference afterward, Idaho’s attorney general, Raúl Labrador, pushed back on the idea that airlifts were happening, citing unnamed doctors who said they didn’t know of any such instances. If women were being airlifted, he said, it was unnecessary, because emergency abortions were already allowed to save the life of the mother. “I would hate to think,” he added, “that St. Luke’s or any other hospital is trying to do something like this just to make a political statement.” (St. Luke’s had filed an amicus brief with the Court in support of the federal government.)


Labrador’s comments echoed accusations from national anti-abortion groups that doctors and others who support abortion rights are sowing confusion in order to “sabotage” the laws. When Moon, the chair of the Idaho Republican Party, had rallied lawmakers against any health exceptions back in 2023, she’d also evoked the specter of “doctors educated in some of the farthest Left academic institutions in our country.” (Neither Labrador nor Moon responded to my requests for an interview.)


It is true that doctors tend to support abortion access. But in Idaho, many of the ob-gyns critical of the ban are not at all pro-abortion. Maria Palmquist grew up speaking at Right to Life rallies, as the eldest of eight in a Catholic family. She still doesn’t believe in “abortion for birth control,” she told me, but medical school had opened her eyes to the tragic ways a pregnancy can go wrong. Lately, she’s been sending articles to family members, to show that some women with dangerous pregnancies need abortions “so they can have future children.”


Kim Cox, the doctor who told me about a patient who had a relatively healthy child after PPROM at 16 weeks, practices in heavily Mormon eastern Idaho. Cox said that “electively terminating” at any point in a pregnancy is “offensive to me and offensive to God.” But he also told me about a recent patient whose water had broken at 19 weeks and who wanted a termination that he was prepared to provide—until he realized it was legally dicey. He thought the dangers of such cases were serious enough that women should be able to decide how much risk they wanted to tolerate. Because, I ventured, they might already have a kid at home? “Or 10 kids at home.”


Megan Kasper, an ob-gyn in Nampa, Idaho, who considers herself pro-life, told me she “never dreamed” that she would live to see Roe v. Wade overturned. But Idaho’s law went too far even for her. If doctors are forced to wait until death is a real possibility for an expecting mother, she said, “there’s going to be a certain number of those that you don’t pull back from the brink.” She thought the law needed an exception for the health of the mother.


In the two-plus years since the end of Roe, no doctor has yet been prosecuted in Idaho or any other state for performing an abortion—but who wants to test the law by being the first? Doctors are risk-averse. They’re rule followers, Kasper told me, a sentiment I heard over and over again: “I want to follow the rules.” “We tend to be rule followers.” “Very good rule followers.” Kasper said she thought that, in some cases, doctors have been more hesitant to treat patients or more willing to transfer them than was necessary. But if the law is not meant to be as restrictive as it reads to doctors, she said, then legislators should simply change it. “Put it in writing.” Make it clear.


She does wonder what it would mean to test the law. Kasper has a somewhat unusual background for a doctor. She was homeschooled, back when it was still illegal in some states, and her parents routinely sent money to legal-defense funds for other homeschoolers. “I grew up in a family whose values were It’s okay to take risks to do the right thing,” she told me. She still believes that. “There’s a little bit of my rebel side that’s like, Cool, Raúl Labrador, you want to throw me in jail? You have at it.” Prosecuting “one of the most pro-life OBs” would prove, wouldn’t it, just how extreme Idaho had become on abortion.


When I visited Boise in June, doctors were on edge; the Supreme Court’s decision on emergency abortions was expected at any moment. On my last day in town, the Court accidentally published the decision early: The case was going to be dismissed, meaning it would return to the lower court. The injunction allowing emergency abortions would, in the meantime, be reinstated.


As the details trickled out, I caught up with Thomson, who was, for the moment, relieved. She had an overnight shift that evening, and the tight coil of tension that had been lodged inside her loosened with the knowledge that EMTALA would soon be back in place, once the Court formally issued its decision. Doctors at St. Luke’s also felt they could stop airlifting patients out of state for emergency abortions.


But Thomson grew frustrated when she realized that this was far from the definitive ruling she had hoped for. The decision was really a nondecision. In dismissing the case, the Court did not actually resolve the conflict between federal and state law, though the Court signaled openness to hearing the case again after another lower-court decision. The dismissal also left in place a separate injunction, from a federal appeals court, that had blocked enforcement of EMTALA in Texas, meaning that women in a far larger and more populous state would still be denied emergency abortions. This case, too, has been appealed to the Supreme Court.


Moreover, the federal emergency-treatment law has teeth only if an administration chooses to enforce it, by fining hospitals or excluding them from Medicare and Medicaid when they fail to comply. The Biden administration has issued guidance that says it may sanction hospitals and doctors refusing to provide emergency abortion care, and as vice president, Kamala Harris has been a particularly vocal advocate for abortion access. A Trump administration could simply decide not to enforce the rule—a proposal that is outlined explicitly in Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s blueprint for a second Trump term. If the emergency-treatment law is a mere “Band-Aid,” as multiple doctors put it to me, it is one that can be easily torn off. 


EMTALA is also limited in scope. It covers only patients who show up at an ER, and only those with emergency pregnancy complications. It would not apply to women in Idaho whose pregnancies are made more dangerous by a range of serious but not yet urgent conditions (to say nothing of the women who might want to end a pregnancy for any number of nonmedical reasons). It would not apply to the woman carrying triplets who, as an MFM recounted to me, wanted a reduction to twins because the third fetus had no skull and thus could not live. She had to go out of state to have the procedure—tantamount to an abortion for just one fetus—which made the pregnancy safer for her and the remaining babies. And it did not apply when Kayla Smith, already grieving for her unborn son, worried about preeclampsia. Her family ultimately left Idaho for Washington, so she could have another child in a safer state; her younger daughter was born in late 2023.


Smith has joined a lawsuit filed by the Center for Reproductive Rights challenging the limited scope of exceptions under Idaho’s ban. A group in Idaho is also planning a ballot initiative that will put the question of abortion to voters—but not until 2026. In the meantime, doctors still want Idaho to add medical exceptions to the law. After the disappointingly narrow exceptions the state legislature passed in 2023, it did nothing more in its 2024 session. A hearing that Thomson was slated to speak at this spring got canceled, last minute, by Republicans, who control the legislature.


Still, Thomson told me she was set on staying in Idaho. She and her husband had moved their family here 11 years ago because they wanted their four kids to “feel like they’re from somewhere.” Having grown up in a Navy family, she’d moved every few years during her own childhood before joining the military for medical school and continuing to move every few years as a military doctor. When her son was just 14 months old, she deployed to Iraq. She got her job in Idaho after that. When she and her husband bought their house, she told him this was the house she planned to live in for the rest of her life.


In the past two years, she’d seriously wavered on that decision for the first time. The moral distress of practicing under the ban had sent her to see a counselor. “I was in a war zone,” she told me, “and I didn’t see a counselor.” This past fall, she came up with a backup plan: If she had to, she could stop practicing in Idaho and become a traveling doctor, seeing patients in other states.


But then she thought about all the women in Idaho who couldn’t afford to leave the state for care. And she thought of her kids, especially her three girls, who would soon no longer be girls. The eldest is 20, the same age as a patient whose baby she had recently delivered. “This could be my daughter,” Thomson thought. If everyone like her left, she wondered, who would take care of her daughters?


This article appears in the October 2024 print edition with the headline “What Abortion Bans Do to Doctors.”


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Saturday, September 14, 2024

The Real DEI Candidates. By Adam Serwer

 by Adam Serwer / Sep 14, 2024 at 8:28 PM//keep unread//hide

Before Tuesday’s debate, Donald Trump and his supporters insisted that Kamala Harris was a lightweight who was barely able to speak coherently. Trump has called Harris “dumb as a rock,” “low-IQ,” “unable to put two sentences together,” and “unable to put two sentences together without a teleprompter.” Republicans have said that Harris was chosen “because of her ethnic background,” that she’s a “DEI hire” who “gets more favorable treatment because of her race and gender.”


After all that, focus groups, public polling, Trump’s advisers, and the conservative-media figures who maintain his cult of personality all concluded that the Republican lost the debate, despite his protestations otherwise, and his refusal to try again confirms this. “THERE WILL BE NO THIRD DEBATE!” Trump posted. “You want to know who won? Find out who refuses to” debate again, Mike Collins, a Republican representative from Georgia, posted on X. I guess we know!


Conservatives have fixated on diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts in recent years as, in their view, a kind of reverse discrimination against white people, white men in particular, that elevates people to jobs they are unqualified to do. Inadvertently, their reactions to Harris, and her subsequent thrashing of Trump, illustrate why diversity outreach is important and necessary in a world where people still face discriminatory assumptions because of their race and gender.


Many conservatives have focused on DEI not because of their moral and sometimes practical objections to diversity efforts—which can be meritorious; not every diversity initiative is good or appropriate—but because it allows them to express underlying assumptions about the inherent inferiority of Black people and women implicitly, without sounding like they are making those assumptions themselves. This way they can argue that it is not that they think Black people and women are inferior; it is that diversity initiatives inherently elevate people who are unqualified. For example, when Harris announced that she and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, would do the traditional postconvention interview with both of them (as Trump and his running mate, J. D. Vance, did), conservatives suggested that she must be incapable of being interviewed alone.


After Harris’s performance on Tuesday, conservatives tried to reconcile the difference between their perception of her as an idiot and the reality of what they saw onstage. Conspiracy theories abounded—Trump insisted that she’d had the questions beforehand, while conservatives on social media speculated that she had speakers in her earrings that were telling her what to say. I don’t want to overstate the importance of debating—being a good debater says very little about whether you would be a good president—but the right’s assumptions about Harris’s intellectual capacity were clearly invalidated by her performance.


[Adam Serwer: What Trump’s Kamala Harris smear reveals]


Now, it would be simpler for conservatives who claimed Harris was an imbecile to admit that maybe the current vice president and former senator, attorney general, and district attorney is just smarter than they were giving her credit for. But that would require abandoning the assumptions about Black people and women that drove them to make their initial assessment. They cannot do that, because doing so would illustrate why diversity efforts are necessary in the first place: that plainly competent people are often wrongly assumed to be stupid because they are not white men, and denied opportunities as a result.


Indeed, former President Barack Obama faced almost identical criticisms from the right, despite the ease with which he can extemporaneously discuss complex policy matters. The best statistical evidence shows that racial discrimination in employment remains pervasive, in part because of the pervasiveness and power of these assumptions, which not even Black people in the most elite professions can escape. If people like Harris and Obama are constantly facing a barrage of insults about their intelligence, what do you think things are like for regular people who have to face these assumptions every time they apply for a job?


Nothing is inherently racist about arguing that a Black person is incompetent; what is racist is assuming that because he or she is Black. Harris ran a weak Democratic primary campaign in 2020, and doubts about her strength as a candidate were totally rational. But those were not the criticisms that conservatives offered. Rather, their objections were far more extreme—debasing her political and intellectual talent—objections that were all conditioned by prejudiced assumptions about the capabilities of Black people and women.


Conservatives have taken to referring to DEI as “didn’t earn it.” But to the extent that the candidates are running on unearned advantages related to personal biography, this better describes Trump and Vance than it does Harris, who worked her way up from local to state to federal office over the course of decades.


Trump was born a multimillionaire who drove one business after another into the ground, and his reputation as a brilliant businessman is largely due to him playing one on television. His term as president was mired by incompetence and corruption despite being relatively uneventful, and when faced with a real crisis—the coronavirus pandemic—he proceeded to bungle it in a catastrophic fashion that led to needless deaths and economic calamity. Vance has spent very little time in elected office, an office he won mostly on the success of his memoir and a Trump primary endorsement in a red state. He appears to have been selected as the vice-presidential nominee on the basis of his willingness to debase himself on Trump’s behalf. Neither of them has a compelling record of public service.


That’s the irony—the actual “didn’t earn it” candidates are the two white guys running on the Republican ticket.

MARK PENN GOES MASK OFF AS A GOP DISINFORMATIONIST, BUT HE'LL STILL GET TO SCOLD DEMOCRATS IN THE NEW YORK TIMES. by No More Mister Nice Blog

 / by Steve M. / Sep 14, 2024 at 1:33 AM
Kamala Harris wiped the floor with Donald Trump in Tuesday night's debate, so the GOP and its propaganda wing are now insisting that there was A Conspiracy So Vast to throw the debate to Harris. The Murdoch media has signed on to this effort by giving Mark Penn and his fellow Fox News Democrat Andrew Stein a spot on the Wall Street Journal editorial page, where they argue that ABC cheated Trump:
[Harris] enlisted every charge ever leveled against Mr. Trump, regardless of the truth. That included, to name a few, the false claims that he favors a national abortion ban and opposes in vitro fertilization, that he called neo-Nazis in Charlottesville, Va., “very fine people,” and that he threatened a “bloodbath” if he loses the election.

Each is untrue: Mr. Trump has made clear he opposes a national abortion ban. He favors IVF and has even said the government should pay for it. He condemned the Charlottesville neo-Nazis. And he predicted a financial “bloodbath” for the auto industry if he loses and the Biden-Harris electric-vehicle mandates progress.

Had the moderators turned to Ms. Harris after these lies and said, “That has been debunked,” we might be having a totally different conversation about the debate, given how she tends to react when challenged.
The moderators fact-checked Trump on outrageous assertions that are unambiguously false: No state allows a born-alive infant to be murdered. Authorities in Springfield, Ohio, have said that no one is eating pets in their community. By contrast, the supposed debunking of the charge that Trump said there were "very fine people on both sides" in Charlottesville has itself been debunked. The "bloodbath" remark was ambiguous -- Trump was talking about the economy, but then he said, "Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath, for the whole — that’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country. That’ll be the least of it," which at least suggests that he anticipates a society-wide apocalypse if he loses the election. And when there's a conflict between Trump's current positions and past statements -- or statements found in the Project 2025 manifesto, which is largely written by Trump advisers -- what are the undisputed facts about Trump's positions?

Beyond that, Penn and Stein's swipe at Harris -- "given how she tends to react when challenged" -- is absurd. How does she react when challenged? Based on the events of Tuesday night, when she was challenged relentlessly by Trump, she reacts with poise, precision, eloquence, and a command of the facts. I'm sure she would have handled an ABC fact-check or two deftly and effectively. (I guess it would be unfair to expect Trump to maintain poise when being questioned on accuracy.)

What's more, Penn and Stein are gaslighting us. Harris didn't out-debate Trump because he was fact-checked. She out-debated him because she showed him for what he is, a vain, angry man with extreme ideas. There wasn't a fact check involved when Trump had a meltdown over Harris's (accurate) assertion that attendees get bored at his rallies and leave early. And Trump's widely mocked slander of Haitian immigrants in Ohio -- "They're eating the dogs" -- occurred before ABC's fact check.

Penn went further on the podcast of John Solomon, a formerly respectable journalist now best known for peddling Russia-friendly falsehoods about the Biden family and Ukraine in collaboration with Rudy Giuliani. Here's what Penn said to Solomon about how ABC handled the debate:
"I actually think they should do a full internal investigation, hire an outside law firm. I don't know how much of this was planned in advance," Penn told the "John Solomon Reports" podcast.

"I don't know what they told the Harris campaign. I think the day after, suspicion here is really quite high, and I think a review of all their internal texts and emails really should be done by an independent party to find out to what extent they were planning on, in effect, you know, fact-checking just one candidate and in effect, rigging the outcome of this debate. I think the situation demands nothing less than that," he added.
(Emphasis added.)

In the Journal op-ed, Penn merely accuses ABC of pro-Harris bias. Here, in a just-asking-questions way, Penn is suggesting that ABC might have colluded with the Harris campaign to rig the debate, even though Harris's triumph didn't depend in any way on ABC's fact checks.

There was no such collusion and Penn knows it, but he's being a good disinformationist in an attempt to bring down the party he hates, a party that exiled him years ago, a party whose nominee he and his wife wanted to defeat with their No Labels project this year.

And yet I'm certain that we'll see Mark Penn on the op-ed page of The New York Times next month, or two years from now, or four years from now, and he'll be scolding Democrats as he always does for failing to move far enough right for his tastes. His bio will still include some version of "Mark Penn was a pollster and an adviser to President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton from 1995 to 2008," and no acknowledgment of his time advising Donald Trump on impeachment or his role in the attempt to ratfuck the 2024 presidential election to prevent a Democratic victory. Penn is anti-Democratic hack, but that fact will never be acknowledged at the Times.

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Trump’s New Big LieThe Atlantic - Politics / by David A. Graham

 / Sep 14, 2024 at 12:42 AM
This article was featured in the One Story to Read Today newsletter. Sign up for it here.

“You are being lied to,” Elon Musk posted on X yesterday. He’d know, because he’s doing the lying.

Musk was retweeting a wildly false post insisting that violent crime is on the rise, by an X user whose avatar is an imperial stormtrooper from Star Wars (red flag!). The account’s previous brush with infamy came when Donald Trump posted a screenshot of the account suggesting that Swifties supported him; Taylor Swift cited that in endorsing Kamala Harris this week. Despite beginning with the words “FACT CHECK” in bold—another red flag—the post is actually a vivid example of a new big lie driven by Donald Trump and his allies, full of easily debunked nonsense.

The user’s fundamental claim is that despite what the FBI’s data and all other legitimate statistical sources show, crime—especially violent crime—is actually rising, as Trump claimed in this week’s debate. The former president tried to say that crime was up, and when moderator David Muir corrected him, Trump replied, “The FBI—they were defrauding statements. They didn’t include the worst cities. They didn’t include the cities with the worst crime. It was a fraud.” This is false. Violent crime is down. Trump is wrong, as is Musk.

[David A. Graham: Trump’s illusory answers to imaginary crime problems]

The X user makes a slightly, though only slightly, more sophisticated version of Trump’s argument. Or rather, he or she throws more claims at the wall in the hopes they’ll stick, but they shouldn’t. I’ll take some of the big claims in order. As the tweet reads:

Less than a year after taking office, Biden-Harris’s administration had the FBI dismantle the long-standing crime reporting system, replacing it in 2021 with a new, ‘woke’ system that is optional for state and local law enforcement agencies to use.

Here’s what’s real: Starting in 2021, the FBI’s national crime estimates were based on reports to a system called the National Incident-Based Reporting System, moving from the old Summary Reporting System. NIBRS itself is not new; it dates to 1988. The Biden administration had nothing to do with the switch. The decision to move to NIBRS was made in 2015, and it was implemented in January 2021, before Trump left office.

The old Summary Reporting System gathered only limited data on a limited number of crimes. The switch was intended to improve the quality of America’s crime data. But the data remain plagued with troubles. For one thing, national crime rates are not available until late the following year: 2023’s numbers are currently expected from the FBI some time later this month. And because the country has an estimated 18,000 law-enforcement agencies—from the 36,000 officers of the NYPD to local constabularies with a single officer—collecting good data from all of them is hard.

NIBRS has never solved all of those problems, but it does provide more detailed data than SRS, tracking more types of crimes, for example. The reason the FBI kept using SRS was that not enough agencies had switched to NIBRS. To fix that, the FBI announced that, starting with 2021 numbers, it would collect data only from agencies that reported via NIBRS, and would stop using the old system.

Crime experts widely agree that, as a result of that transition, the numbers for 2021 are dubious. In the past, typically a small percentage of agencies had failed to report stats to the FBI—something like 5 or 6 percent. In 2021, a third of U.S. agencies failed to report. It’s important to remember that the FBI crime estimates are just that: estimates. Because the FBI had worse data, it had to make more assumptions in 2021

But by 2022, the most recently available year of FBI data, that problem was largely solved, partly because more agencies had shifted over to NIBRS. The X post says, “As a result, at least 6,000 law enforcement agencies aren't providing data, meaning that 25% of the country’s crime data is not captured by the FBI.” That claim may be based on a July 2023 Marshall Project article saying that 6,000 agencies hadn’t submitted 2022 data. That was accurate at the time, but then the FBI decided to allow submissions via the old system, which meant that overall participation matched the historical average. I have no idea where the 25 percent number comes from, but all cities with more than 1 million people were included in the 2022 FBI data, while small towns and state police tend to have lower reporting rates. A greater number of crimes take place in larger cities, and no category of agency is at less than 77 percent, so that claim appears to be completely invented.

The rest of the post doesn’t stand up either. For example, it implies that liberal policies by prosecutors in New York City are falsely driving down crime rates in the data. But Charles Fain Lehman, a fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute, notes that reported violent crime in New York has actually risen—hilariously, something that would presumably help the poster’s overall argument, if he or she weren’t so sloppy. Even so, the charge misses the point, because prosecutors don’t report these numbers—police departments do. These are statistics not about charges or convictions but about crime reports. Whatever the failings of progressive prosecutors, they don’t have anything to do with FBI crime estimates.

The X post also claims that NIBRS is “woke” and allows “agencies to record pronouns and gender identities, including transgender and nonbinary, as well as the sexual preferences of both criminals and victims.” As far as I can tell, this is invented out of whole cloth. The submission specifications include nothing like that.

“It’s not far-fetched to imagine that the Biden-Harris regime and the Democrats replaced the FBI’s universal crime data system with a new optional system to fabricate this massive decrease in ‘reported’ crime,” the post goes on.

But as we’ve seen, it’s not only far-fetched; all of the predicates are untrue. (The system has also always been voluntary.) The other problem is that although the FBI numbers are the acknowledged national standard, they’re not the only numbers available that show the same results. Many cities and states make their numbers publicly available online. Those numbers tell a consistent story: In most places, crime rose sharply in 2020 and has been receding ever since, though in general it’s still higher than in 2019. The Real-Time Crime Index, an invaluable new tool for tracking changes in crime made by the independent statistics firm AH Datalytics, shows the clear downward trend in violent crime and other offenses.

The X post is more or less totally false, but its goal is not to correct the record but to spread an atmosphere of fear and paranoia—to suggest to voters that they are not safe, and that the best way to guarantee their safety from the “American carnage” Trump has described is to vote him into office and abridge certain people’s rights. Trump has always seized on crime fears and lied about incidence of crime, but he’s working especially hard at it now. In addition to the inconvenience of his own 34 felony convictions, Trump has the problem that crime spiked in his last year in office and has been dropping since. Rather than change the subject, Trump wants to change perceptions of reality.

Crime data are not as reliable, or as timely, as would be ideal. Some crimes—especially those such as domestic violence and child abuse, whose victims feel shame—are thought to be drastically underreported. People who distrust police may also hesitate to report crimes. Given these difficulties, researchers tend to look carefully at the murder rate, because it is thought to be the most reliable statistic, as murders are almost always reported, and nearly impossible to hide. Today, murder statistics also point to a general downturn in crime. And that gets at the real lesson: No crime data should be taken in isolation. It’s essential to look at as many metrics as possible, understand their limitations, and emphasize trends over absolute numbers.

[David A. Graham: America’s peace wave]

But not all the statistics measure the same thing. Trump and his campaign yesterday cited the National Crime Victimization Survey to insist that crime really is up sharply. But as AH Datalytics’ Jeff Asher, the best guide to understanding crime statistics, has written, NCVS is less reliable than the FBI crime trends because it doesn’t include murder (homicide victims seldom respond to surveys), doesn’t specify the year crimes occurred (it asks about the past six months), and is subject to the same problems that have bedeviled other public-opinion polls in recent years. But, Asher contends, the trends in the two sources usually align anyway: “Both measures tell us that the nation’s violent crime rate in 2022 was substantially lower than it was in the 1990s, largely in line [with] where it was over most of the last 15 years, and likely slightly higher than where it stood in 2019.” The numbers for 2023, released yesterday, show a decline from the previous year. It’s also nonsensical for Trump to claim that the FBI is producing fraudulent numbers but then cite Justice Department figures as the gospel truth.

Mark Twain joked that there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. But some statistics are actually pretty reliable, which is why cynics turn to lies instead.


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Thursday, September 12, 2024

The Joy of Watching Kamala Harris Beat Down an Old Man. By The Rude Pundit

Sep 12, 2024 at 2:57 AM


It's not hyperbolic to say that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, beat the shit out of former president (no, really, he was once president. Of the whole United States) and current GOP nominee Donald Trump at last night's debate. She didn't just get the best of him, throwing down genuine facts and insulting observations in equal measure. She beat him down in a way that he probably hasn't been beaten down since his hideous father likely pounded him. She degraded his record, reduced his presence, and obliterated his talking points. She was, to this incredibly biased observer, near perfect in her execution of the execution of Trump's ego. Harris fucked him up good. 


And, goddamn, we needed it. We needed to see someone say exactly who he is with clarity and energy, someone willing to go there, to all those weird and dangerous alleyways where his brain resides, and someone willing to call the Devil "the Devil" to his stupid, evil face. The dichotomy was stark. She's smart; he's dumb. She's poised; he's belligerent. She gives a damn; he couldn't fucking care less. She's lively; he's a fucking lump.


On that last point, Trump barely physically moved the entire debate. It was weird, like he was a mannequin. He looked at Harris very few times. The biggest motions he made were to lean into the mic for emphasis on some moronic point or other or to contort the mushy flesh of his face into a shit-eating grin. Gravity has not been kind to Trump. Always a frowner, his jowls are now pulled earthward by time and weight into a bullfrog-like permanent scowl awaiting a chance to bellow.


Meanwhile, Harris, at her lectern, danced around him with the physical lightness and fierce confidence of a boxer who knows exactly when and where to punch. She baited him constantly, and he fell into every single trap. And when he fell, she hogtied him again and again, like a rodeo cowboy who lassoed a steer. Unlike that steer, which might learn to not leave the pen after a few hog-tyings, Trump would rush out crazily every time, only to end up with his hooves in the air. 


On substance, it was laughable to watch Harris, an accomplished, experienced woman who worked her ass off to get where she is, go up against a convicted felon and rapist whose TV celebrity and blatant racism inspired the worst fucking people in the country to vote for him. You were literally seeing a prosecutor take on a game show host and it went exactly like you'd think that would go.


Every time Trump lied, she tore him a new asshole. When he said, "Every legal scholar, every Democrat, every Republican, liberal, conservative, they all wanted this issue to be brought back to the states where the people could vote," she ripped into him about the suffering that the end of guaranteed abortion rights has brought to women in places where it's banned. When he refused to answer whether or not he'd support Ukraine in its war with Russia, she gutted him by saying that he would let Russia have Ukraine and "Putin would be sitting in Kiev with his eyes on the rest of Europe, starting with Poland. And why don’t you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor" and talked about how world leaders think he's a fucking joke, an easily flattered bitch boy. By the end, she had torn so many new assholes in him that he'll be shitting out of his arms, legs, and chest for months.


And when Trump would say something completely divorced from reality, Harris would smile as if she thought it was time to give Gramps his pudding cup, shut off Fox "news," and tuck him in. He couldn't deal with her constant emasculation of him. You could see his brain, which is always ready to overheat from the slightest usage, short circuit when she brought up how people leave his rallies because they're bored or when she pointed out all the people who worked with him who fucking despise him now. Once that happened, he couldn't get control again. 


By the way, bragging that you fire people you just hired a few months or a year before isn't the own he thinks it is. It just says that you suck at management. 


But the most disturbing part of the debate was how Trump brings every fucking issue back to his warped view of immigration. Harris nailed it early on when she said, "I’ll tell you something, he’s going to talk about immigration a lot tonight, even when it’s not the subject that is being raised."And she was right. Jobs? "We have millions of people pouring into our country from prisons and jails, from mental institutions and insane asylums, and they’re coming in and they’re taking jobs that are occupied right now by African-Americans and Hispanics and unions." His rallies? "What they have done to our country by allowing these millions and millions of people to come into our country and look at what’s happening to the towns all over the United States." January 6? "I ask what about all the people that are pouring into our country and killing people that she allowed to pour in?" Trump was flailing and always returned to this well. It's like watching the world's stupidest gorilla fall out of a tree again and again and instead of giving up, he shits in his hand and rubs his face with it, thinking it shows how strong he is when all it does is make him have a face full of shit.


The other thing that's clear is the only source of information for Trump is right-wing media because it is constantly fawning over him.  At one point, he cited "Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity, Jesse, all of these people" for debunking something. The whole "Haitians eat pets" thing came from click-seeking bullshitters on the right and no one who isn't terminally online would understand a single fucking thing about that (trust me - I've had more than a few people ask, "What the fuck?"). When he was fact-checked on that by moderator David Muir, Trump said one of the most pathetic things I've ever heard a grown up say, let alone someone running for president: "But the people on television are saying their dog was eaten by the people that went there." I'd go into hiding from embarrassment, but I'm capable of feeling shame. 


There were too many idiotic things that Trump said to mention. When he said about Putin, "He’s got nuclear weapons. They don’t ever talk about that. He’s got nuclear weapons. Nobody ever thinks about that," I thought, "Yeah, they do, motherfucker. If he didn't have nukes, NATO would have bombed him into submission." When he said that Democrats wouldn't vote "to change" the Affordable Care Act, I thought, "No, motherfucker. The bill wasn't to change anything. It was to get rid of it and then hope your replacement plan might go beyond the concept stage at some point."


Harris has faced so many smarter, sharper, quicker opponents. It was a joy to see her treat him like the skeevy corner masturbator that he is. 


And, yeah, I know, I know, I fucking know that this debate didn't change many minds. One thing I hear often about what I write is that I'm preaching to the choir. And my response is always the same: "The choir deserves to be preached to. That's why they go to church all the time." If I were to expand on the metaphor, I'd say that there is always a chance that a few sinners will come into the church and get religion. That's not the only reason to preach, but it sure as hell is nice when it happens. 


Harris's evisceration of Trump and the entire empty charade of MAGA ideology might sway a few people in the narrow swath of voters who are still persuadable. But the real accomplishment was in pumping up the rest of us, we the choir, and gettin us geared up to get out there and work to make this presidency happen and end the tyranny of Trump's drain on our national spirit. She showed us how to handle it: with the sword of muted rage and a dagger of a smile. 

Kamala Harris Is the First Post-Trump Candidate. By Charlie Warzel

Read time: 5 minutes


Kamala Harris’s Secret Weapon

She recognizes Trump for what he is.


September 11, 2024, 11:08 AM ET


The definitive image from last night’s debate is a very specific split-screen view of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. In the left frame, Trump is mid-monologue, lips pursed and gesticulating. Harris occupies the right box, clearly watching her opponent. She’s leaning back ever so slightly, her hand on her chin. On her face is something halfway between a grimace and an incredulous smile—a facial expression that many Harris supporters likely recognize as a universal, exasperated response to a Trump rant.


It was a good look. While Trump seethed, Harris seemed amused. She offered righteous indignation while attacking Trump’s position on abortion, his love for authoritarian strongmen, and his bald-faced lies about immigrant crime. She effectively baited Trump numerous times—most memorably about crowd sizes at his rallies. All of this was rhetorically significant on its own, and yet, somehow, Harris seemed most withering and effective in the moments when Trump was speaking—the moments when she was able to look across the stage and act almost as an audience barometer for Trump’s answers. Crucially, Harris didn’t come off as furious or offended as she listened to Trump’s lies. Instead, she looked at ABC’s cameras the way you might look at your spouse in the presence of an overserved relative who doesn’t realize he’s making a scene at Thanksgiving dinner.


David Frum: How Harris roped a dope


“I have traveled the world as vice president of the United States, and world leaders are laughing at Donald Trump,” Harris said at one point. “I have talked with military leaders, some of whom worked with you, and they say you’re a disgrace.” In another moment, she referenced his repeated election denial and suggested that perhaps Trump was confused and lacked the temperament to hold the presidency. “The American people deserve better,” she said.


What Harris’s body language and forceful rhetoric have in common is that they diminish Trump, and do so in a manner that succeeds where other Trump opponents have failed. Harris is the first candidate in a primary or general election to embody what feels like a “post-Trump” ethos. In other words, she’s the first person to run against the former president who does not treat him as the center of the U.S. political solar system. Rather than cave to his gravitational, attentional pull, Harris offers a different version of Trump: He’s not the sun; he’s the guy who has overstayed his welcome at a party.


In particular, Harris succeeds where her predecessor failed. Joe Biden’s early campaign quite accurately positioned Trump as a grave threat to democracy and the political order. But doing so made the election exclusively about Trump and backed Democrats into a corner where their messaging and identity were focused on what they opposed, rather than what they stood for. Although Biden is no longer the nominee, his well-delivered speech at the Democratic National Convention embodied this grim ethos: Even while making the case for his successful presidency, the speech was firmly situated in the context of the existential threat of Trumpism. This, to some degree, is the strategy that every one of Trump’s opponents has adopted, and for good reason: Trump is a lying, ranting, twice-impeached convicted felon who has repeatedly refused to accept the results of the 2020 election. He has promised that a second presidential term would be a “bloody story,” referring to mass deportations. There is every reason to take Trump’s reelection bid with the utmost seriousness.


Harris was able to reckon with the darker elements of a Trump presidency while also seizing on the fundamental absurdity of Trump as a candidate—usually with her expressions and body language. Instead of getting baited into Trump tangents—childishly arguing over golf prowess, for example, as Biden did—she treated his digressions as unserious or unworthy. Harris’s facial expressions last night made for easy memes and screenshots, but they’re also of a piece with Democrats’ most salient line of attack—that Republicans are “weird” and enmeshed in an extremely online far-right universe of alternative facts. The weird critique has stuck for Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, precisely because it is dismissive of Republican talking points. Instead of pearl-clutching, it presents the MAGA arm of the party as lost and out of touch. Harris’s incredulous split-screen looks during last night’s debate were, essentially, the visual embodiment of that critique. Her constant baiting throughout the night—calling Trump a disgrace and needling him about the size of his rallies—successfully lured Trump into long tangents that are legible only to those steeped in an extended universe of right-wing viral grievance.


For instance: Harris’s comment about crowd size sent Trump on an 89-second rant about migrants stealing and eating pets in Springfield, Ohio—a reference to a debunked, racist meme spread by the MAGA faithful online and across conservative cable-news channels. As Trump delivered his deranged monologue, Harris laughed on the other side of the screen. When Trump finished, one of ABC’s moderators, David Muir, noted that there had been no “credible reports” of immigrants harming pets in Springfield. Caught flat-footed, Trump offered a feeble rebuttal: “I’ve seen people on television!”


Read: The worst cat memes you’ve ever seen



It’s unclear just how much presidential debates matter, even in close elections, though some evidence suggests that they don’t change many voters’ minds. Regardless, Harris’s performance managed to cast Trump as a dusty old artifact—a massive paradigm shift, as Trump has so thoroughly saturated our collective attention that he can feel like an immovable object. Trumpism’s shock-and-awe approach—the trolling, dog whistling, and constant memes and tweets—has been absurd and threatening since the real-estate mogul rode down his golden escalator in 2015. But it has also often felt ascendant—the early stages of a cynical, frequently cruel, often internet-powered faux-populist political project. What Harris’s campaign and debate style propose, however, is a different view of Trump, not as the central figure in American politics but as a vestigial element of a movement that’s so curdled by grievance and enmeshed in an alternate reality that it is becoming not just culturally irrelevant, but something far worse: pitiable.


About the Author



Charlie Warzel is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the author of its newsletter Galaxy Brain, about technology, media, and big ideas. He can be reached via email.


Sunday, September 8, 2024

A conflict built on centuries of myth-making

A conflict built on centuries of myth-making. 
‘Forever wars’ do not exist but bringing peace to the Holy Land is complicated by so much of its history being wilfully misunderstood. 
Jerusalem is at the heart of Israeli and Palestinian national identities but many moderates in both camps believe a compromise solution is impossible. 

Simon Sebag Montefiore
Friday September 06 2024, 5.00pm BST, The Times
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There was a moment during the last significant negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, in May 2008, that is relevant today. Saeb Erekat, the Palestinian minister of negotiations, told the Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni: “It’s no secret we’re offering you the biggest Yerushalayim in history. But we must talk about the concept of al-Quds. We’ve taken your interests and concerns into account … ”

Three years later these conversations were leaked to the media as the Palestine Papers. There was an outcry by Palestinians against Erekat, who was accused of treason. He resigned, suffering a heart attack. His treason was using the word Yerushalayim, the Hebrew for Jerusalem, alongside al-Quds, Arabic for Jerusalem. Yet he was no traitor but a brave, noble peacemaker — and an inspiration to this writer: there can be no Yerushalayim without al-Quds, no Israel without Palestine, no Palestine without Israel. One Holy City, one Holy Land — but ultimately, two nations, two republics.

In our world crisis of today, amid the blood-brimmed heartbreak of war and slaughter, that dream may seem naive yet there is little choice. Nonetheless, for it to happen titanic changes must take place in both nations. Essential is a respect for the history of the other side. History really matters in the Middle East; myths are as important as the real history but even as a historian, I think there is way too much attention paid to history in the Middle East. What should matter is how people want to live now; their right to live in peace, in their own country.

It is our reverence for the semi-sacred legitimacy granted by history that gives it lethal propulsive power. People live for it, quote it, die for it. History itself is never history: it changes, shapeshifts; it haunts us for ever. That is why it matters; why we have to fight for a balanced history, as much as such a thing is possible. History cannot be undone nor invented to suit modern emotions or ideologies.

As the Erekat story illustrates, it is impossible to make peace without acknowledging the history of the other. During the Camp David negotiations in 2000, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) leader Yasser Arafat shocked President Clinton and the Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak by insisting there had never been a Jewish temple in Jerusalem, a lie widely repeated by Palestinian leaders. On the other side, there are plenty of Israeli nationalists who insist the Palestinian nation is itself an invention.

That is why I originally wrote a history of the Holy City/Holy Land that would encompass all peoples, all religions, all empires, from the dawn of history to the 20th century, where my narrative climaxed with the creation of Israel in 1948 and the 1967 war. There are many histories of the conflict, most of them wildly biased, some pro-Israel, most anti-Israel. This, I hope, was a balanced chronicle of both peoples, glorying in and respecting their narratives, though history of this tournament of scorpions remains a huge challenge.

When it came out in 2011, it still seemed negotiations would be revived. Instead, for ten years dominated by the Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel thrived in the presumption that no peace process was necessary while the Palestinians were split into two warring factions: the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas, which seemed content to terrorise Gaza with its Islamist tyranny, funded by Qatari and Iranian cash, bountiful western aid — and Israeli complaisance.

This week protesters in Tel Aviv called for a ceasefire and a deal to return Israeli hostages held by Hamas
This week protesters in Tel Aviv called for a ceasefire and a deal to return Israeli hostages held by Hamas
SAEED QAQ/GETTY
On October 7 Hamas’s diabolical slaughter was so alien to the sophisticated, tolerant mainstream of Arab culture and history that I was reminded not of sporadic Arab violence against Jews during the Ottoman centuries or British rule but of the fanatical religious hatred and frenzied evil of the Crusader massacre of Muslims and Jews in Jerusalem on July 15, 1099. That is no coincidence: nothing about Hamas is truly rooted in Arab history. Its Islamism is a new ideology, that of the Brotherhood, founded in Egypt in 1928, and its eliminationist racism derives from 20th-century European racism and fascism. Yet since October 7, history has become a sparkwheel of hatred and ignorance on the internet. Social media has its charms yet is simultaneously a cesspit and dumpster fire of lies and loathing, a reliquary of falsehoods, prejudices, conspiracies. So often the history is not merely untrue but a brazen calumny — and when lies are corrected and the actual history asserted, the latest phrase, emblazoned on student banners astonishing in its arrogance and ignorance, is: “I aint reading all that!”

That was when I decided to update and revise my book to show how the Jewish and Arab histories of the Holy Land are ancient and intertwined. Both were indigenous, both ruled their own kingdoms, both conquered and colonised others too. Both peoples were conquered and colonised themselves by Egyptians, Assyrians, Babylonians, Persians, Greeks, Romans and, after the eclipse of the Arab empire, by Christian Crusaders, then Islamic Mamluks and Ottomans. After the Romans crushed the last Judean prince, Simon bar Kochba in AD135, there were always Jews living in the Holy Land but no state until 1948; Palestinian Arabs always lived there as subjects of the empires of others, except for the short 18th-century rule of Sheikh Zahir al-Umar.

One of the tragedies of the modern conflict is the bleak binary of two nationalisms locked in a death-grip, justified by the simplistic outrages of eliminationist anti-Israel terrorists and western activists, and anti-Palestinian Israeli religious nationalists. Neither reflect the history of the region. Jerusalem today is the heart of Palestinian and Israeli national identities yet the history of the Holy Land is a multi-ethnic, multisect chronicle of indigenous peoples, Arab and Jewish, alike descended from Canaanites in the ancient Levant as well as outsiders, settlers, colonists and pilgrims who have included Arabs, Jews, Turks, Armenians and Greeks. This reflects its geostrategic position as bridge between Europe, Asia and Africa; its coastal road marched by so many armies, the pivot of the east Mediterranean, the meeting place, gallery and arcade, casbah, souk and bazaar of many peoples.

There are 5.3 million Palestinians outside Israel itself, three million in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, 2.3 million in Gaza. There are nine million Israelis, including two million Israeli Arab citizens and seven million Jewish Israelis. Both peoples have grown inexorably since 1948. One thing is certain: Israel should not and cannot rule five million Palestinians indefinitely without dangerous degradation of its state and society, as we are witnessing.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the two communities can live together. Israeli Jews and many Israeli Arabs coexist; many of the latter, proud Israelis, heroically rushed to aid their Jewish co-citizens on October 7 and gave their lives. This was understood by earlier leaders: Chaim Weizmann and David Ben-Gurion both negotiated with Arab leaders of Syria and Jordan, the Hashemite brothers Faisal and Abdullah, both kings, who discussed between 1918 and 1949 various ways to encompass Jewish entities and communities within regional Arab federations, believing Jews and Arabs could thrive together. Palestinian nationalists in the 1920s and 1930s also saw regional solutions, proposing Palestine be part of Syrian, Egyptian or Jordanian kingdoms. A single-state “solution” now seems impossible without bloody strife if not slaughter. The vision of two nations, two republics, with all its flaws, remains plausible if incredibly difficult. Two nations, two republics. Words matter. I prefer to use this new, plain coinage to the weary slogan of the “two-state solution”, tainted by the failed peace processes, for the simple reason that the word solution implies a finality that I now believe is unrealistic. Some frankness is obligatory here. October 7 may have placed the Palestinian plight back at the centre of the global agenda but its gleeful sadism, rapine, butchery and bloodthirst, its hostage-taking, its pure evil, have probably put it back by decades for many Israelis.

The ferocious Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza, with its unbearable civilian cost, may have discredited peaceful existence with Israel for many Palestinians. Yet there is no other way except endless killing and suffering. Not everyone would embrace this compromise. Some Palestinians hope for Israel’s downfall and the expulsion if not slaughter of its Jews, because the Holy Land is God-given Arab Islamic territory. This is the view of Hamas and its many supporters. There have always been Israelis who believe in the subjugation and expulsion of Palestinians because every inch is God-given Jewish Promised Land. Such Israeli extremists now disgrace the disastrous present government and menace the very existence of Israel almost as grievously as its external enemies. Other decent people in both nations believe two republics will never be feasible in terms of security or trust. But these views have waxed and waned over the decades and will continue to do so, depending on circumstance. The essential compromise settlement, the vision of two nations, two republics, may never win over everyone but it should and could win over enough people in both nations to work. It is not a “solution” that totally ends conflict. It is a pragmatic arrangement of compromise.

History and geography offer some perspective. Looking back over the mere century since the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the Israel–Palestine conflict is both exceptional and utterly typical of the region. Many of the nation-states created between 1930 and 1948 are unstable to the point of disintegration: Syria, Yemen, Libya and Sudan, mired in civil war and ethnic strife, cursed by tyranny. Lebanon, a warning against one-state solutions, survived spasms of civil war only to be captured by Hezbollah.

More than a quarter of the 400 million people of the Arab world live in states dominated by parastate militias. The most successful states are the wealthy absolutist monarchies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and a flawed democracy, Israel.

The tragedies of the region are made worse by the clumsy interference of outsiders driven by the international obsession in — and superior righteousness inspired by — Jerusalem and the Holy Land.

Ever since the Roman campaigns scattered the Jews, the Holy Land has had a significance far beyond its location, thanks to an extraordinary concentration of events: Constantine’s conversion, the universality of the Bible across Europe (and later America), the Christianisation of the Arab world, the mystical significance of Jerusalem in the Jewish, Christian and then Islamic revelations, the Arab and Islamic imperial conquests, Crusades and Saladin’s reconquest. The 19th-century Christian re-focus on the Holy Land, the Balfour Declaration, League of Nations mandate and UN partition confirmed this unique sacred-cultural status even in an era of secular institutions and international law. The centrality of Jerusalem and the Holy Land in wider western culture, added to that of Aqsa and al-Quds in Islamic and Palestinian culture, is a super-multiplier that magnifies and distorts both exponentially.

It is ironic that the western fixation is based on a sense of familiarity, if not moral ownership, that originates in European crusades as well as imperialism and orientalism, deeply, often unconsciously, buried in the western soul. The Holy Land acts like a strange carnival mirror in which we see a version of ourselves, past and present, serving as a proxy passion play for local struggles in distant places and a contorting lens through which we see others more dramatically, crudely and righteously, which wondrously grants instant superiority without any jeopardy for ourselves: the Jerusalem Effect. The romanticisation of Hamas, a murderous religious sect that abhors every tenet of liberal democracy, led by Yahya Sinwar, a man who made his name torturing men to death by hand because they were homosexuals, is the classic example of this — a mistake rarely made by people born and bred in the Middle East. The fetish is based too on the history of the Jewish people, half of whom now live in Israel, and reflects their exceptional place and role in western history — now expressed in new strains of antisemitism retooled for an age of formal “anti-racism” that inverts recent Jewish history and uses it against Jews — and the safety of Israelis.

The various peace plans to end the conflict, encouraged by the Saudis and Americans, deliver huge and real gains for each player
The various peace plans to end the conflict, encouraged by the Saudis and Americans, deliver huge and real gains for each player
DAWOUD ABO ALKAS/GETTY
At a time when the academy is committed to a critique of the historical morality of western states, the role of European empires in that history has intensified this entitlement to judge. This volcano of moral hysteria is ignited not only by fashionable ideologies, cultural wars, historical illiteracy and ancient bigotries but also by the maddening algorithmic whirlpool of social media. All harvest new hatreds to feed into a conflict not short of old ones.

Peace-making is about psychology as well as power: “The psychological barrier is 70 per cent of the problem,” said President Sadat of Egypt as he bravely flew into Jerusalem, “the substance is just 30.” But it is not only one side that must reassess their worldview. For Palestinian extremists, the long-held dream of destroying Israel and the urge to murder Israelis, the thrall to killing cults, martyrdom fetishes and maximalist exclusivity of a pure “Arab Palestine”, only ensure slaughter, interminable impoverishment and moral desolation. For Israeli extremists, the urge to deny Palestinians rights, safety, respect and statehood, the thrall to cults of messianic chiliasm, Jewish supremacy and maximalist expansion, mean slaughter, international isolation, moral desolation and a steep slope towards the degradation of the Jewish republic.

The Jewish extremists who besmirch Netanyahu’s disgraceful ministry and seek to inflame Jerusalem and the West Bank should never again be allowed near an Israeli cabinet. Both sides must change; both must reject the extremists in their ranks. And not only within their ranks. Israel’s golden opportunities and gravest threats — of Saudi conciliation and Iranian menace — are linked to the Palestinian question but also profoundly based on wider geopolitical conflicts. This is both a local ethnic conflict and a theatre in a wider tournament between America and the open societies with their Sunni Arab allies — Saudi, the UAE and Egypt — and Iran with its senior ally, Russia, and its parastate vassals — Assadist Syria, Hezbollah, Houthis and Hamas, all enemies of every value we in the liberal democracies hold dear.

At the moment, many banners of the Palestinian cause are waved by activists who benefit from the freedoms of democracies yet belong in the camp of democracy’s intolerant, authoritarian enemies. A Palestinian republic will only happen when the Palestinian movement separates itself from these eliminationists. States can make peace with past enemies who accept their existence but there is no point in making peace with those who wish to kill you, now and tomorrow. Yet amid the hellscape of today’s slaughter, rage and grief, the killing of civilians, the red mist of war and the looming danger of wider regional conflict, out of the darkness of this nightmare for both peoples, the dawn must come.

The cruellest tragedies can sometimes shake established views and lead to new visions and acts of courage ­— as they did for Sadat and Begin after 1973 and for Rabin and Arafat in 1993 after the Intifada. Whenever the fighting dies down, it is essential for Israel and Palestinians to resume negotiations. “That’s why,” commented Barak, citing the total lack of public confidence in Netanyahu and his “messianic crazies”, “we need a sensible and capable government” — and a fresh mindset.

Few states in history have made concessions out of pure philanthropy. Entities negotiate about interests. October 7 and its wider sequels exposed vulnerabilities in Israel’s position. The short-term solutions may be military but the long-term ones are political. Similarly, October 7 proved Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other terrorists can punish Israel with military raids and urban warfare in Gaza and make the West Bank ungovernable but neither threatens Israel’s existence and are achievable only at an unbearable cost in Palestinian lives. The various peace plans, encouraged by the Saudis and Americans, deliver huge and real gains for each player. That is why — however difficult it may be, however fortified the positions of Israeli and Palestinian maximalists — there is an opportunity, tortuous and tangled. Ghouls, killers and pyromaniacs maraud on both sides. It will be up to the brave, the moderate and the heroic to find that path.

Conflicts are often called “forever wars” but none are eternal. They all end in victory, defeat, compromise or exhaustion. For two nations to live beside each other without violence, love is not necessary, nor in this case likely; nor, for many, is forgiveness or amity — though many Israelis and Palestinians are already building friendships. None of this is necessary, only recognition, acceptance and peace. It is possible. It is essential. And it is inevitable. One day.

The revised and updated Jerusalem: a History of the Middle East by Simon Sebag Montefiore is out now

Saturday, September 7, 2024

MY UNPOPULAR OPINION ABOUT TRUMP'S RHETORIC: IT'S NOT GIBBERISH, IT'S BULLSHIT

MY UNPOPULAR OPINION ABOUT TRUMP'S RHETORIC: IT'S NOT GIBBERISH, IT'S BULLSHIT
No More Mister Nice Blog / by Steve M. / Sep 7, 2024 at 12:09 AM
Yesterday, after his speech to the Economic Club of New York, Donald Trump responded to questions, including this one:
If you win in November, can you commit to prioritizing legislation to make child care affordable, and if so, what specific piece of legislation will you advance?
Here's his response:



A transcript of his long, meandering answer:
Well, I would do that, and we're sitting down, and I was, somebody, we had Senator Marco Rubio, and my daughter Ivanka was so, uh, impactful on that issue. It's a very important issue. But I think when you talk about the kind of numbers that I'm talking about, that, because, look, child care is child care is. Couldn't, you know, there's something, you have to have it – in this country you have to have it.

But when you talk about those numbers compared to the kind of numbers that I'm talking about by taxing foreign nations at levels that they're not used to — but they'll get used to it very quickly – and it's not gonna stop them from doing business with us, but they'll have a very substantial tax when they send product into our country. Uh, those numbers are so much bigger than any numbers that we're talking about, including child care, that it's going to take care.

We're gonna have - I, I look forward to having no deficits within a fairly short period of time, coupled with, uh, the reductions that I told you about on waste and fraud and all of the other things that are going on in our country, because I have to stay with child care. I want to stay with child care, but those numbers are small relative to the kind of economic numbers that I'm talking about, including growth, but growth also headed up by what the plan is that I just, uh, that I just told you about.

We're gonna be taking in trillions of dollars, and as much as child care, uh, is talked about as being expensive, it's, relatively speaking, not very expensive compared to the kind of numbers we'll be taking in. We're going to make this into an incredible country that can afford to take care of its people, and then we'll worry about the rest of the world. Let's help other people, but we're going to take care of our country first. This is about America first. It's about Make America Great Again, we have to do it because right now we're a failing nation, so we'll take care of it. Thank you. Very good question. Thank you.
I'm supposed to believe that this is incoherent word salad, and is further evidence that Trump is in an advanced state of dementia. However I think what he said makes sense -- in a way. Brendan Nyhan sums up my take on this:
For the record, he's trying to say the cost of child care will be taken care of by his tariff and economic growth, but he can't say one thing about child care because he *doesn't know anything about it* and he's blustering through like a student who didn't do the reading.
Right. Trump knows nothing about the cost of child care or specific proposals to fund it, so he talks around that and says that his magic tariffs will generate massive amounts of revenue -- presumably with zero inflation! -- as will economic growth and the same crackdowns on "waste and fraud and all of the other things that are going on in our country" that every Republican has promised since at least the late twentieth century, and as a result we'll be able to toss huge amounts of child care money at families with young children and still have plenty left over for everything else we need to do. Oh, and we'll stop running deficits!

This isn't dementia. This is lying. It's actually the same sort of lying Republicans have done for decades, except that they've said that their tax cuts won't result in revenue-reducing shortfalls and he says that tariffs will make all of our economic problems go away, including revenue shortfalls, without creating any new problems of their own. Being a dishonest used car salesman who'll promise you anything to make the sale is, in part, how Trump got here. He wins or comes close in general elections because, after a decade of The Apprentice, many people who aren't superfans hear him and say, Well, he's a brilliant businessman, so I trust him when he says he can do this.

I understand why Kamala Harris's campaign and other Trump critics want to portray this as the product of a brain that no longer works the way its owner wants it to work. I hope that message hurts Trump at the polls. But Trump's brain is still working more or less as intended. He's a lifelong bullshit artist and he's still reasonably good at bullshitting. (At the end of his answer, the audience gives him a round of applause, even though his listeners are people who know his numbers can't possibly add up.)

And now here's a riff from the speech itself that's being mocked:



But this also makes sense -- at least if you consume massive amounts of right-wing media. It's not about the school shooting. Here's a transcript:
Colorado. Aurora. Has anyone been there? I think you'd better stay away for a little while. They had AK-47s. The ultimate guns. AK-47s. They can blow lots of people away real fast. And the sheriff didn't want to touch 'em. Nobody wants to touch 'em. "Sheriff, there's eighteen Venezuelans attacking my building. Would you please come over and straighten out this situa--?" He's got a deputy. You know what they say? "Ah, well, no thanks. Let's call in the military." They're taking over, and I said this four years [clip cuts off]
Like your right-wing uncle whose rants every Thanksgiving are incomprehensible unless you watch six hours of Fox News a day, Trump is assuming that everyone in his audience is familiar with a story that's been heavily pushed by the New York Post, Fox, and other right-wing outlets.

If you believe these sources, you think the entire city of Aurora, Colorado, has been taken over by a Venezuelan criminal gang. But other news sources tells a different story. Here's AP:
Police in the Denver suburb of Aurora say a Venezuela street gang with a small presence in the city has not taken over a rundown apartment complex — yet the allegation continues to gain steam among conservatives and was amplified by former President Donald Trump in a Wednesday Fox News town hall where he said Venezuelans were “taking over the whole town.”

The unsubstantiated allegation gained momentum following last month’s dissemination of video from a resident in the complex that showed armed men knocking on an apartment door, intensifying fears the Tren de Aragua gang was in control of the six-building complex.

However, city officials indicate the buildings, along with two other apartment complexes, were run down because of neglect by the property manager, CBZ Management.
The news site Denverite tells us this:
There are a handful of apartment buildings in Aurora owned by CBZ Management, a company based in Brooklyn, New York. For years, residents of several of those buildings have complained about rats, mice and insects, concerns over crime and poor treatment by management.

All that predates the arrival of tens of thousands of Venezuelan immigrants in the Denver area.

For the past two years, Aurora has been working to get the property owners into compliance with the law, said Jessica Prosser, Aurora’s director of housing and community services, at a press conference in August.

Many newly arrived Venezuelans and other Spanish-speaking immigrants were placed into those apartments by nonprofits....

We know there have been recent assaults and shootings at and near some of the properties. Aurora Police arrested a man on suspicion of attempted homicide and say he is connected to Tren de Aragua.

Police also said the allegations of rent theft have surfaced at several CBZ Management properties....

We also know there is a video of men with guns entering one of the apartments at The Edge at Lowry. Aurora Police have not confirmed the identity of those men.

At that same apartment complex, Denverite reporters saw multiple mice and bedbugs; mold growing in a bathtub; a stove that hasn’t worked for two months; a sink that won’t drain; and a broken fan.

However, the entire city of Aurora has not been taken over by the gang, as the Colorado Republican Party claimed in a fundraising email. Police have been at The Edge at Lowry speaking with residents, and the Aurora police chief says that no gang is running the apartment complex. Residents said the same at a Tuesday press conference at the building.
The video is disturbing.



But it's clear that CBZ Management, the Brooklyn-based company that runs this building, is extraordinarily neglectful. The Republican mayor of Aurora called the company "out-of-state slumlords." Online comments about the company, in both Colorado and Brooklyn, are universally negative (click to enlarge):



We can have a conversation about immigrant gangs in America. That's fine. But this is a complicated story. And it's definitely not a story of a gang takeover of an entire city, as Denverite notes:
Walk through Aurora, and it’s clear: The gang has not taken over the city, even as some gang members have committed a handful of crimes. Blocks away from The Edge at Lowry, neighbors shop in local stores, mow their lawns, ride their e-bikes and carry on life as usual.
Trump's rhetotic is dishonest, hyperbolic, and inflammatory -- but that's bog-standard for Republicans in 2024. He's not losing his marbles. He's just telling phony stories.

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