Thursday, June 12, 2025

Jun 12 - The Achingly Simple Lesson That Democrats Seem Determined Not to Learn

June 10, 2025


By Michael Hirschorn


Mr. Hirschorn is the chief executive of Ish Entertainment.


As Democrats continue to sort through the wreckage of the November election, one idea that keeps circulating is to mint a “liberal Joe Rogan,” or better yet, create a parallel ecosystem of left-liberal podcasters to rival the network that has emerged on the right.


It’s not that they admire Mr. Rogan — his statements about transgender people and race so horrified liberals that many went ballistic when Senator Bernie Sanders accepted his surprise endorsement early in the 2020 presidential race. In 2024 Kamala Harris kept her distance, and Mr. Rogan gave his endorsement to Donald Trump. It’s Mr. Rogan’s influence that Democrats covet, an influence that has only increased in recent years with the popularity of a new crowd of male podcasters whom he has supported and who are now starting to rival his popularity. Amid a widespread — and widely mocked — effort by Democrats to reach young men, several elite liberal groups have sprung into action to counter the Rogan effect. One for-profit startup called AND Media (which stands for Achieve Narrative Dominance) hopes to raise $70 million to fund online influencers. Another similar undertaking has connections to the former Google chief executive Eric Schmidt.


These efforts are unlikely to succeed, because they’re based on a fundamental misunderstanding of what these podcasts are and why they are so popular.


Two decades ago, Andrew Breitbart articulated the theory that “politics is downstream from culture.” That’s no longer quite right. Culture now is politics, and these podcasters — or bro-casters — are a perfect example of why.


Like Mr. Rogan, the podcasters Andrew Schulz, Tim Dillon and Theo Von all came up through the comedy circuit. They have no coherent political agenda, no detailed policy analysis, no claim to expertise of any kind. In fact, it’s the opposite. Mr. Schulz and Mr. Von recently shared their amazement at discovering that 27 million Soviets died during World War II — “That’s unbelievable! You don’t ever hear about that,” Mr. Von marveled.


So trying to create an AstroTurfed lefty version of the bro-casters, trying to find equal and opposite spokesmen for the causes that Democrats care about, won’t work, because these guys aren’t spokesmen for anything.


They’re, frankly, weirder than that. The ideas they articulate can seem 10,000-monkeys-level random, ranging from half-baked libertarianism to late-stage lib-owning to just-asking-questions ramblings about how maybe we need a Nayib Bukele-type dictator here in the United States. Mr. Dillon, a frequent guest of Mr. Rogan’s, last year endorsed his “friend” Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for president: “He’s out there just going: This is my truth.” Mr. Rogan is prone to “innumerable stoner overreaches that, without fail, continue to land him in ludicrously incoherent political territory,” Luke Winkie recently noted in Slate, including going on record as supporting both universal health care and the idea that Hitler has gotten a bad rap.


But if the bro-casters lack a coherent policy agenda, what they do have is a well of knowledge, honed from years of touring the country from one chuckle hut to another, about how to talk to people without talking down to them. And in a world where authority of all kinds (medical, professorial, journalistic, political) is in decline, where information from top-down media is losing ground to an infinitude of bottom-up sources, this precise kind of realness matters. Authenticity, it seems, is what fills the void when authority dies.


Democrats long since forgot how to communicate that way. They operate on the assumption that ideas and governance are the primary things that move people. That’s why we get endless debates about what Democrats should stand for that are of interest to insiders and hugely off-putting to everyone else. The problem isn’t getting the ideology right; it’s using words like “ideology” to begin with. Democrats are very much not out there going: This is my truth.


If there’s one issue that unites the bro-casters — beyond the need to find three hours of content — it’s a disdain for wokeness. “The word ‘retarded’ is back,” Mr. Rogan recently announced, ridiculously, “and it’s one of the great culture victories.” Mr. Schulz wound up his latest Netflix standup special with a long bit, the upshot of which was basically that people from Staten Island were a super race of “Teenage Mutant Ninja Retards.”


Modern bro-caster culture emerged in part as a response to the enforced sensitivity of #MeToo and Black Lives Matter, which left many young men feeling vilified for their purported privilege. The comedy of that time mocked the latest language strictures, whichever new initial was being added to the L.G.B.T.Q. array and anything trans. I first encountered Mr. Schulz in 2018 at New York’s Comedy Cellar, when he was a successful but not yet famous touring stand-up comic, developing what would become his signature style: marching up to the line of woke heresy and letting the tension hang there before performing a quick switcheroo. One bit: Schulz introduces the topic of trans women in sports. Nervous anticipation from the audience. Punchline: He’s in favor, because “then women will know what white people went through when we let Black people play sports.” Anti-woke made Mr. Schulz one of the country’s top comics, and now one of its more prominent podcasters.


The bro-caster ecosystem is a safe space for men to such a comical degree that it seems less menacing than juvenile. Only in this world could Eric Adams bond with Mr. Schulz over the need for a New York outpost of a particularly baller Miami strip club. By my rough count, fewer than two dozen of Mr. Von’s last 467 shows, spanning almost a decade, featured women, and two of them were Nikki Glaser. But male doesn’t necessarily mean brutish or insensitive. On air, Mr. Von can be emotionally finely tuned, open to thoughtful discussions of mental illness and parenting. Last year, he had an uncannily human conversation with Mr. Trump about, amazingly, cocaine. “Is our conversation going OK?” he asked during an epic dorkfest with Mark Zuckerberg in April. A few years ago, Mr. Schulz let an increasingly drunk Alex Jones wave around a machete and offer to castrate any boy who wanted to be trans — but looking past the theatrics, I find that Mr. Schulz circa 2025 is against racism, welcoming to gay people, largely chivalrous to women, agreeable about ideological differences. He’s decent.


If the Democrats ever want to get their groove back, it won’t work to tune out these folks, or to insist that engaging them is just feeding the trolls. It was the shunning of characters like Mr. Schulz and Mr. Dillon that led them to position themselves as free-speech warriors — the same ressentiment that helped fuel Trump’s victory.


Schulz describes himself as a Bernie bro who voted for Trump not because of any intrinsic conservatism but because Democrats lost their chill. Liberals used to get all the action, Mr. Schulz said recently; now, conservatives are the ones who live large “and say whatever they want.” The Bulwark’s Tim Miller, fully taking the bait, called this “possibly the stupidest argument for a transition to MAGA that I’ve ever heard.” But this is sort of making his point, no?


So maybe instead of disdaining these guys and looking for liberal alternatives, Democrats should be taking a deeper lesson from bro-caster success: Get past litmus-test politics and focus-tested messaging. Relearn how to talk like nonpoliticians. Then get over yourselves, go on these shows and mix it up in this brave new world of anything goes.


The podcaster ecosystem is at least somewhat porous, a buzzing hive where there’s plenty of room for fresh perspectives. And the bros, Rogan excepted, seem to be spending a touch less time making fun of wokeness these days — that shtick is less daring now that you can call in the president of the United States for air cover.


Mr. Schulz has claimed on air that he has repeatedly asked Democratic pols (including Ms. Harris) to come on his show and that none agreed. Which is why it felt like a breakthrough when Pete Buttigieg, the former secretary of transportation and a veteran of dozens of Fox News guest spots, spent nearly three hours on the show in April. Go listen to it. It’s amazing. Once Mr. Buttigieg weathers a couple of pro forma gay jibes, he has the opportunity to speak at length, in detail, with humor and passion, about why Trumpism is bad for America. Mr. Schulz, in turn, lays out a road map for left-of-center politicians looking to reach wayward men that every Democratic consultant should pay heed to. Mr. Buttigieg and Mr. Schulz talk about being girl dads, Mr. Buttigieg tells the story of adopting twin mixed-race infants and why public investment is a necessary handmaiden to private-sector growth. He uses a few curse words. Mr. Schulz jokes that he may be turning liberal. And, with the necessary caveat that the bro-casters seem to agree with whatever their guests say, maybe he is.


This May, Mr. Sanders sat with Mr. Schulz and his team. Mr. Sanders’s ability to articulate progressive ideas without getting mired in identity politics was on full display. Mr. Schulz introduced him as “the last honest man in politics,” and — after Mr. Sanders recited the lineup of the 1957 Brooklyn Dodgers — said, “I think now we call that autism.” Mr. Sanders laughed. Mr. Schulz asked smart, incisive, generous questions that brought out the best in his guest. And Mr. Sanders got access to a huge audience of people who have little interest in traditional political content.


Who knows if things would’ve been different had Ms. Harris not avoided the bro-casters last year. Either way, fellow Democrats should take the opposite approach. They’d reach a bigger audience and they’d learn a lot, even if they do get called “retarded.”

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Jun 10 - Jenny - Michelle - Goldberg - This Is What Autocracy Looks Like

Jun 10 - Jenny - Michelle - Goldberg - This Is What Autocracy Looks Like

June 9, 2025, 8:30 p.m. ET

By Michelle Goldberg


Since Donald Trump was elected again, I’ve feared one scenario above all others: that he’d call out the military against people protesting his mass deportations, putting America on the road to martial law. Even in my more outlandish imaginings, however, I thought that he’d need more of a pretext to put troops on the streets of an American city — against the wishes of its mayor and governor — than the relatively small protests that broke out in Los Angeles last week.


In a post-reality environment, it turns out, the president didn’t need to wait for a crisis to launch an authoritarian crackdown. Instead, he can simply invent one.


It’s true that some of those protesting Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids in Los Angeles have been violent; on Sunday one man was arrested for allegedly tossing a Molotov cocktail at a police officer, and another was accused of driving a motorcycle into a line of cops. Such violence should be condemned both because it’s immoral and because it’s wildly counterproductive; each burning Waymo or smashed storefront is an in-kind gift to the administration.


But the idea that Trump needed to put soldiers on the streets of the city because riots were spinning out of control is pure fantasy. “Today, demonstrations across the city of Los Angeles remained peaceful, and we commend all those who exercised their First Amendment rights responsibly,” said a statement issued by the Los Angeles Police Department on Saturday evening. That was the same day Trump overrode Gov. Gavin Newsom and federalized California’s National Guard, under a rarely used law meant to deal with “rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the government of the United States.”



Then, on Monday, with thousands of National Guard troops already deployed to the city, the administration said it was also sending 700 Marines. The Los Angeles police don’t seem to want the Marines there; in a statement, the police chief, Jim McDonnell, said, “The arrival of federal military forces in Los Angeles — absent clear coordination — presents a significant logistical and operational challenge for those of us charged with safeguarding this city.” But for Trump, safeguarding the city was never the point.


It’s important to understand that for this administration, protests needn’t be violent to be considered an illegitimate uprising. The presidential memorandum calling out the National Guard refers to both violent acts and any protests that “inhibit” law enforcement. That definition would seem to include peaceful demonstrations around the site of ICE raids. In May, for example, armed federal agents stormed two popular Italian restaurants in San Diego looking for undocumented workers; they handcuffed staff members and took four people into custody. As they did so, an outraged crowd gathered outside, chanting “shame” and for a time blocking the agents from leaving. Under Trump’s order, the military could target these people as insurrectionists.


The administration, after all, has every reason to want to intimidate those who might take part in civil disobedience. Violent protests play into its hands; peaceful ones threaten the absurd narrative it’s trying to bludgeon America into accepting. Just look at the lengths to which it’s going to silence David Huerta, the president of the Service Employees International Union of California. Last week, Huerta was arrested after sitting on a sidewalk and blocking a gate while protesting an immigration raid at a work site in Los Angeles. While he was being detained, he was knocked to the ground, resulting in his hospitalization. On Monday, the Justice Department charged him with “conspiracy to impede an officer,” a felony that carries a maximum prison term of six years.


Trump also, on Monday, called for the arrest of Newsom. If you saw all this in any other country — soldiers sent to crush dissent, union leaders arrested, opposition politicians threatened — it would be clear that autocracy had arrived. The question, now, is whether Americans who hate tyranny can be roused to respond.


Many people have speculated that the confrontation in Los Angeles will play into Trump’s hands, allowing him to pose as a champion of law and order bringing criminal mobs to heel. Maybe they’re right; Trump is a master demagogue with a gift for creating the scenes of conflict his supporters crave. We now know that Dr. Phil was on the ground with ICE during the raids that set off the Los Angeles unrest, filming a prime-time special. The administration appeared to want a spectacle.


Public opinion, however, isn’t set in stone, which is why it’s important for everyone who has a platform — politicians, veterans, cultural and religious leaders — to denounce the administration’s authoritarian overreach. Administration officials like Stephen Miller are pushing the idea that Los Angeles is “occupied territory,” as evidenced by the foreign flags some protesters are carrying. Americans who still have hope for democracy should be saying, as loudly and as often as they can, that this is an insultingly stupid lie to justify a dictatorial power grab. Maybe it will turn out that the truth is no match for right-wing propaganda, but if that’s the case, we were already lost.


It’s worth remembering that in 2020, when Trump went to St. John’s Church for a photo op after U.S. Park Police and Secret Service officers had tear-gassed protesters, he was widely condemned by both religious leaders and former high-ranking military officers, forcing the administration onto the defensive. A poll conducted a little later found that two-thirds of Americans blamed him for increasing racial tensions. It is not a given that disorder favors Trump, especially when it’s clear that he’s the one instigating it. But there need to be strong voices countering his blunt fictions.


Yes, America has lurched to the right since Trump’s first term, and he can get away with abuses now that would have set off mass outrage then. Plenty of Democrats, burned by the backlash against Black Lives Matter and large-scale illegal immigration, would rather not have a fight over disorder in Los Angeles. “For months, Democrats scarred by the politics of the issue sought to sidestep President Donald Trump’s immigration wars — focusing instead on the economy, tariffs or, in the case of deportations, due process concerns,” reported Politico.


But there’s no sidestepping a president deploying the military in an American city based on ludicrous falsehoods about a foreign invasion. Indeed, it’s hard to think of a clearer signpost on the road to dictatorship. This Saturday, on Trump’s birthday, he’s planning a giant military parade in Washington, ostensibly to celebrate the Army’s 250th anniversary. Tanks have been photographed en route to the city, the Lincoln Memorial standing tragically in the background, like an image from some Hollywood dystopia.


On that day, there will be demonstrations all over the country under the rubric “No Kings.” I desperately hope that Trump’s attempt to quash protest ends up fueling it. Those who want to live in a free country may be scared, but they shouldn’t be cowed.

Jun 10 - Michelle - Emptywheel - No, Trump Voters Did Not Vote for This

Jun 10 - Michelle - Emptywheel - No, Trump Voters Did Not Vote for This

emptywheel / Jun 9



A disavowal of Stephen Miller’s immigration crackdown by Ileana Garcia, one of the founders of Latinas for Trump, has generated a lot of attention and some outrage.





Many lefties are criticizing Garcia for perceived denial about who and what she voted for, or for being a dumbass for pretending they didn’t enable this. It’s absolutely true that anyone who voted for Trump voted for the way he deployed bigotry, twice, to win. Garcia owns that.


But she didn’t vote for the specific crackdown that is currently going on. And the distinction matters.


The pushback against Garcia’s comment was largely a response to Miami Herald’s headline. “‘Inhumane:’ Latinas for Trump founder condemns White House immigration crackdown,” or a few paragraphs taken out of context.


Her full statement — as well as that of Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar, to which she was responding — is more nuanced than that. Both are complaining about the practice of arresting people as they attend court hearings or routine check-ins as part of adjudication of legal claims. Here’s Garcia’s comment.


[W]hat we are witnessing are arbitrary measures to hunt down people who are complying with their immigration hearings—in many cases, with credible fear of persecution claims.


Salazar explained the point at more length.


Arrests in immigration courts, including people with I-220A and pending asylum cases, the termination of the CHNV program, which has left thousands exposed to deportation, and other similar measures, all jeopardize our duty to due process that every democracy must guarantee.


I remain clear in my position: anyone with a pending asylum case, status-adjustment petition, or similar claim deserves to go through the legal process.


That is, both women (and I presume Mario Díaz-Balart and Carlos Giménez, with whom Salazar says she’ll be meeting with Kristi Noem after several weeks of seeking a meeting) are primarily complaining that, to ratchet up arrests, ICE is arresting people as they arrive for scheduled meetings that are part of their due process to remain in the US.


This is the tactic that lefties have condemned when it happened to people like Mohsen Mahdawi or Carolina or Gladis Yolanda Chavez Pineda or Carol Hui or VML’s mother, every one of them the subject of local or national attention.


You can argue that these Cuban-Americans are mostly pushing to protect their own communities; Salazar specifically mentioned the parole covering Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan migrants, which Trump recently revoked with SCOTUS approval. You’d be right! Four South Florida politicians are fighting to protect their constituents.


You can argue Garcia should have seen this coming when Trump and JD Vance and Stephen Miller falsely accused Haitian migrants of eating house pets. You’d be right! Of course, that comment targeted Haitians in Ohio, not Cubans in South Florida. Salazar even specifically excluded Haitians from those migrants fleeing the “most brutal regimes in our hemisphere.”


Nevertheless, Trump’s promise to deport millions was premised on deporting immigrants with no legal basis to be in the US, not those who are abiding by a legal process to stay (of which Florida must have a disproportionate number).


No person voted for that because that’s not what Trump ran on (though Miller and JD did call the Haitians illegal, which should have been the tip-off).


And even if Garcia and Salazar were making a more general comment — that Stephen Miller’s focus on longterm migrants, rather than just criminal aliens (both women use somewhat ambiguous language here, with Garcia using the term “criminal aliens” and Salazar referring to “criminal[s] here illegally”) — they’d have some basis for their argument.


I contemplated reposting this entire post, from Day 8 of Trump 2.0, to address this issue. But the record shows that:


During a key part of the campaign, Trump, Miller, and Republican members of Congress claimed there were hundreds of thousands of aliens known to have committed a crime wandering the streets; it was based on a misrepresentation of DHS’s tracker of aliens anywhere in the US, the vast majority of whom are in prison either awaiting trial or serving a sentence. Those were the people Trump promised to deport; he just lied about how many of them there were.

Miller built another part of his campaign on a lie about Tren de Aragua, and when the Intelligence Community debunked that lie both before and after he relied on it in an attempt to bypass due process, he lied some more. Those were the Venezuelan criminals Miller made up who would be covered by the CHNV parole cited by Salazar.

Within a week of inauguration, as experts began to predict the inevitable outcome of Miller’s ICE quotas (then half of what he has since ratcheted them up to) — that ICE would focus on easy targets who were not known criminals rather than hunting down the far rarer criminal alien Miller lied about during the campaign — Miller started redefining the term “criminal alien” to encompass the easier, peaceful targets his quotas would inevitably target. CATO (currently one of Miller’s favorite targets) reported that this focus on numbers rather than criminals would have the effect of drawing law enforcement away from the most dangerous people.




Those are the people — long-term US residents not known to have violated any law — whom Miller has redefined into the criminal aliens about which he lied during the campaign.


You can absolutely hold politicians like Garcia and Salazar responsible for helping to elect Trump, for enabling his grotesque assault on migrants who don’t happen to be Cuban.


But it is nevertheless the case that Miller got Trump elected promising to round up a bunch of people he portrayed as violent criminals, and has since redefined the term “criminal alien” to justify going after people in the US even if they are pursuing a legal claim of asylum.


Garcia and Salazar let themselves buy into a lie, but it was a lie. A series of lies. All designed to move the goalposts to encompass people that South Florida politicians rightly treat as part of their community.


And even if you think Garcia and Salazar let themselves buy into the bigotry, for the moment, who cares? You’ve got powerful Republicans calling out Trump’s lies, with Garcia targeting Stephen Miller and his quotas by name.


One of the most important things that we could achieve, in the short term, to discredit Trump’s ICE crackdown (and with it, Trump’s military invasion of Los Angeles) is to point out that Trump didn’t run on deporting people who were pursuing legal status in the US, and he strongly implied that his promise of mass deportations was a promise to deport actual criminals (about the numbers of which Trump and Miller lied), not long-term US residents who had put down roots. One of the most important things we need the public to understand is that the events in Los Angeles were incited by Miller’s impossible quotas for arrests, 3,000 a day, quotas that from the start were guaranteed to shift ICE’s focus away from dangerous people and onto mothers working at the local waffle restaurant. Even if the only thing such pushback achieves is to end the practice of arresting people when they show up for scheduled check-ins, it would do a lot to keep families together, it eliminate one of the most egregious practices.


Prominent Republicans want to — correctly — blame Stephen Miller for the chaos that has erupted.


Don’t get in their way! At this point, any pushback on Miller’s gulag, any focus on him and his lies, is welcome.


We will not make it through this unless we exploit every single break that Republicans make with Trump. We will not make it through this unless we convince a significant number of Trump voters to push back or better yet disavow their vote.


Only if we do make it through this do we have time for recriminations against the people who allowed themselves to believe a lie.



The post No, Trump Voters Did Not Vote for This appeared first on emptywheel.



Monday, June 9, 2025

Jun 09 - Today’s reading

Jun 09 - Today’s reading


Constitutional Amendments

Lawyers, Guns & Money by Dan Nexon / Jun 8, 2025 at 4:17 AM



I’ve argued that the defects of the U.S. Constitution — as interpreted by the Roberts Court and exploited by the Trump administration — leave us no choice but to pursue a long-term goal of amending it. I’ve also hypothesized that the very process of advocating for a set of amendments could be politically useful from a messaging perspective. Consider how the politics of the Republican “balanced budget amendment” during Clinton’s first term — an amendment which, in fact, almost made it to the states for ratification.


The idea — and I should be clear that this entire post falls under the category of “spitballing” or “brainstorming” or at maybe even “pub conversation” — requires relatively simple amendments that a) are good ideas and b) structure debate in a way that is advantageous to pro-democracy reformers. So let me put it this way: if we had already decided on the strategy, what would those amendments look like?


My inclination favors short, modular amendments. I’d call the larger proposal, or al least the platform that included them, something like “The New Declaration of Independence” and then sort them into broad categories along the lines of “No More Kings” or “No Taxation without Representation” or “Independence from Corruption.” Here are some examples:


No One is Above the Law

Presidents and former Presidents enjoy no immunity from criminal prosecution, including for actions within their conclusive or preclusive constitutional authority.

However, the President of the United States is presumptively protected from federal criminal prosecution during, and only during, his time in office. This protection does not extend to former Presidents, nor to any person who has been elected President more than twice or who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than ten years.

Congress has the authority to suspend a President’s protection from federal criminal prosecution by resolution, provided the resolution is passed by three-fifths majorities of both houses. The procedure for suspending this protection shall otherwise follow those established for impeachment and conviction, and may be pursued in conjunction with that process.

No President may pardon himself. No President may pardon a former President if he served as Vice President at any time during the former President’s term of office.

The President is not a King

The executive powers vested in a President of the United States of America are enumerated in Article II, and shall not be construed to otherwise include powers or prerogatives enjoyed by the Kings of England or other monarchs.


Protecting the Integrity of the Pardon Power

 The Power of the President to Grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States is hereby amended and qualified:


Congress shall, within three months of the adoption of this amendment, establish and provide for a Federal Board of Reprieves and Pardons.

The size of the Board shall be established by statute, but shall include at least five voting officers. Its voting officers must be either former or sitting member of the federal judiciary. Current members of the Supreme Court of the United States are ineligible for appointment to the Board.

No more than one-third of the Board’s members may have been nominated to the federal judiciary by any single President of the United States, regardless of whether that President served consecutive or non-consecutive terms.

Except in cases involving capital punishment, the President may grant Reprieves or Pardons only to individuals who have been vetted and recommended by a plurality of the aforementioned Board within the prior six months — but only if the plurality vote included members who were nominated to the federal judiciary by at least two different Presidents.

Neither the President nor the Vice President may attempt to influence the recommendations of the Board Evidence of such influence will constitute grounds for legal challenges to a Reprieve or Pardon, as well as provide a basis for impeachment proceedings.

If the President declines to issue a pardon to such an individual, the Board may reconsider and resubmit their recommendation after six months has elapsed.

Presidents may, in cases involving capital punishment, grant a temporary Reprieve pending full consideration of the case by the Board within the next six months. If the Board declines to recommend a permanent Reprieve, the President is empowered to Commute the sentence to one of life imprisonment. The use of these powers does not constitute “influence” as described in Section 5.

This last one is more complicated than is ideal. And obviously we’d want an amendment to enshrine the constitutionality of independent agencies, irrespective of whether or not the “President is not a King” amendment (or its equivalent) already does so.


Ideas? As I said, consider this an opportunity to think about constitutional reforms, especially ones that essentially reaffirm longstanding precedents or attempt to reign in abuse of power.


Apologies for typos, but I really can’t spend any more time on this.


The post Constitutional Amendments appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.


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A shattered world: Revisiting “1984”

Lawyers, Guns & Money by Paul Campos / Jun 7, 2025 at 10:36 PM







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I’ve been re-reading 1984 from beginning to end, which is something I don’t think I’ve done since 1984 itself, when I was graduate TA for a class about the book. I’ve looked up certain passages many times in the interim, but I’ve been struck by how I had forgotten much of the book’s actual plot.


One thing I had also sort of forgotten is what an incredibly grim book it is. Taken as prophecy — which in some ways it was clearly intended to be, although Orwell also emphasized that it was a satire of the present rather than a literal prediction of the future — the book’s message could be reduced to this famous passage:


He paused, and for a moment assumed again his air of a schoolmaster questioning a promising pupil: ‘How does one man assert his power over another, Winston?’


Winston thought. ‘By making him suffer,’ he said.


‘Exactly. By making him suffer. Obedience is not enough. Unless he is suffering, how can you be sure that he is obeying your will and not his own? Power is in inflicting pain and humiliation. Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing. Do you begin to see, then, what kind of world we are creating? It is the exact opposite of the stupid hedonistic Utopias that the old reformers imagined. A world of fear and treachery is torment, a world of trampling and being trampled upon, a world which will grow not less but more merciless as it refines itself. Progress in our world will be progress towards more pain. The old civilizations claimed that they were founded on love or justice. Ours is founded upon hatred. In our world there will be no emotions except fear, rage, triumph, and self-abasement. Everything else we shall destroy everything. Already we are breaking down the habits of thought which have survived from before the Revolution. We have cut the links between child and parent, and between man and man, and between man and woman. No one dares trust a wife or a child or a friend any longer. But in the future there will be no wives and no friends. Children will be taken from their mothers at birth, as one takes eggs from a hen. The sex instinct will be eradicated. Procreation will be an annual formality like the renewal of a ration card. We shall abolish the orgasm. Our neurologists are at work upon it now. There will be no loyalty, except loyalty towards the Party. There will be no love, except the love of Big Brother. There will be no laughter, except the laugh of triumph over a defeated enemy. There will be no art, no literature, no science. When we are omnipotent we shall have no more need of science. There will be no distinction between beauty and ugliness. There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always — do not forget this, Winston — always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — for ever.’


Part of what gives the book its extraordinary bleakness is that Orwell was a sick and eventually dying man, as he wrote it in fits and starts between 1944 and 1948, doing much of the writing on a primitive and isolated island off Scotland. (Orwell died of tuberculosis just seven months after the book was published in the summer of 1949).


But here I want to focus on another factor, which is that it’s difficult to appreciate today what an utterly catastrophic period the years 1914-1945 — essentially all of Orwell’s life after his early childhood, as he was born in 1903 — was for the world view that had dominated much of intellectual life, at least in the western world, for many decades prior to that. Orwell captures this shift in an essay about H.G. Wells’s failure to grasp the meaning of Nazism:


 If one looks through nearly any book that [Wells] has written in the last forty years one finds the same idea constantly recurring: the supposed antithesis between the man of science who is working towards a planned World State and the reactionary who is trying to restore a disorderly past. In novels, Utopias, essays, films, pamphlets, the antithesis crops up, always more or less the same. On the one side science, order, progress, internationalism, aeroplanes, steel, concrete, hygiene: on the other side war, nationalism, religion, monarchy, peasants, Greek professors, poets, horses. History as he sees it is a series of victories won by the scientific man over the romantic man. Now, he is probably right in assuming that a ‘reasonable,’ planned form of society, with scientists rather than witch-doctors in control, will prevail sooner or later, but that is a different matter from assuming that it is just round the corner. There survives somewhere or other an interesting controversy which took place between Wells and Churchill at the time of the Russian Revolution. Wells accuses Churchill of not really believing his own propaganda about the Bolsheviks being monsters dripping with blood, etc., but of merely fearing that they were going to introduce an era of common sense and scientific control, in which flag-wavers like Churchill himself would have no place. Churchill’s estimate of the Bolsheviks, however, was nearer the mark than Wells’s. The early Bolsheviks may have been angels or demons, according as one chooses to regard them, but at any rate they were not sensible men. They were not introducing a Wellsian Utopia but a Rule of the Saints, which like the English Rule of the Saints, was a military despotism enlivened by witchcraft trials. The same misconception reappears in an inverted form in Wells’s attitude to the Nazis. Hitler is all the war-lords and witch-doctors in history rolled into one. Therefore, argues Wells, he is an absurdity, a ghost from the past, a creature doomed to disappear almost immediately. But unfortunately the equation of science with common sense does not really hold good. The aeroplane, which was looked forward to as a civilising influence but in practice has hardly been used except for dropping bombs, is the symbol of that fact. Modern Germany is far more scientific than England, and far more barbarous. Much of what Wells has imagined and worked for is physically there in Nazi Germany. The order, the planning, the State encouragement of science, the steel, the concrete, the aeroplanes, are all there, but all in the service of ideas appropriate to the Stone Age. Science is fighting on the side of superstition. But obviously it is impossible for Wells to accept this. It would contradict the world-view on which his own works are based. The war-lords and the witch-doctors must fail, the common-sense World State, as seen by a nineteenth-century Liberal whose heart does not leap at the sound of bugles, must triumph. Treachery and defeatism apart, Hitler cannot be a danger. That he should finally win would be an impossible reversal of history, like a Jacobite restoration.


Orwell conceived the plan for 1984 while the Nazis were still very much not defeated, and he wrote it in the shadow of the triumph of a Stalinist dictatorship which was every bit as totalitarian — and indeed quite a bit more “rational” in modern bureaucratic terms — as the Nazis themselves.


The other huge development that shaped the writing of the novel was the invention and deployment of the atom bomb, which of course did not exist when he began writing the book. The novel imagines some sort of devastating nuclear exchange in the 1950s, after which three mega-states divide the world up to avoid the complete annihilation of any form of civilization. Orwell’s thoughts on the atom bomb itself are also interesting:


Considering how likely we all are to be blown to pieces by it within the next five years, the atomic bomb has not roused so much discussion as might have been expected. The newspapers have published numerous diagrams, not very helpful to the average man, of protons and neutrons doing their stuff, and there has been much reiteration of the useless statement that the bomb “ought to be put under international control.” But curiously little has been said, at any rate in print, about the question that is of most urgent interest to all of us, namely: “How difficult are these things to manufacture?” . . .


From various symptoms one can infer that the Russians do not yet possess the secret of making the atomic bomb; on the other hand, the consensus of opinion seems to be that they will possess it within a few years. So we have before us the prospect of two or three monstrous super-states, each possessed of a weapon by which millions of people can be wiped out in a few seconds, dividing the world between them. It has been rather hastily assumed that this means bigger and bloodier wars, and perhaps an actual end to the machine civilisation. But suppose – and really this the likeliest development – that the surviving great nations make a tacit agreement never to use the atomic bomb against one another? Suppose they only use it, or the threat of it, against people who are unable to retaliate? In that case we are back where we were before, the only difference being that power is concentrated in still fewer hands and that the outlook for subject peoples and oppressed classes is still more hopeless.


This was, I would say, a very plausible hypothesis in the immediate aftermath of World War II. (The other big influence on Orwell’s thought here was James Burnham’s The Managerial Revolution, which he discusses in another interesting essay).


In short, 1984 was written by a man whose entire life had been dominated by the spectacle of two incredibly destructive and insane wars, that killed collectively more than 100 million people, the industrialized mass murder of the Holocaust, the global crisis of capitalism in the 1930s, the rise of a new form of comprehensive despotism in the totalitarian regimes of Germany and the USSR, and the invention of a weapon via the most advanced form of scientific technology that clearly had the potential to destroy civilization.


This was a period that pretty much destroyed the sunny optimism of previous couple of generations, which assumed that science and technology, under the control of rational secular Enlightenment thinking, were guaranteeing that the arc of history was inevitably towards progress, understood in rational bureaucratic terms, and away from the superstitious despotism and desperate poverty of the past. (This of course was never a universally held view, but it was the dominant view of the educated classes in Europe and America from at least the late 18th century until August 1914).


1984 was written amid the smoldering wreckage of the events that had annihilated that optimism, which helps explain why it is such a remarkably grim dystopia.


. . . Should probably be a separate post, but I meant to mention how Trumpism must continue to seem like an inexplicable atavism to so many sensible liberals and moderates, in something like the way that Nazism appeared to be to Wells. History simply CANNOT reverse itself so grossly.


The post A shattered world: Revisiting “1984” appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.


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We're Finally On Our Own: Trump Vs. America

The Rude Pundit by Unknown / Jun 9, 2025 at 8:03 AM

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There is something you need to understand about Donald Trump and a whole bunch of old motherfuckers from his generation: We look at the Kent State Massacre and think that it was a goddamn nightmare moment in 20th-century American history. Trump and his debased ilk look at it and think, "Too bad the National Guard didn't kill more of those fucking commie hippies." In fact, they look at the protests against the Vietnam War and think that cops should have busted more heads and the military should have opened fire to teach those America-hating kids a thing or two about who has power. The same goes for protests for civil rights, women's rights, and LGBT rights. They wanted more protesters killed as a way of ending the marches and what they saw as violent mobs (who, yes, occasionally did riot, especially when faced with police repression) because, see, they wanted to prove they love this country by purging anyone who didn't love it the same way. 

So you should know that, to most of us out here in Sanity Town, the protesters who blocked ICE officers in Paramount, California (after they had raided the local Home Depot and Dale's Donuts in Los Angeles County and picked up migrants who were not committing any crime other than the misdemeanor of being in a place without the right papers) might be heroic. But to Donald Trump, it's a chance for a re-do of the late 1960s and early 1970s, a perfect opportunity to show What We Should Have Done when a right-wing nutzoid was in the White House and didn't feel hindered by laws or morality. Trump has had a hard-on for murder for his whole pathetic, worthless life, valorizing mobsters and fellating dictators, pining for the chance to enact the dream of crazed conservatives since Kent State. 

Over on Truth Toilet, Trump has proclaimed, "A once great American City, Los Angeles, has been invaded and occupied by Illegal Aliens and Criminals.  Now violent, insurrectionist mobs are swarming and attacking our Federal Agents to try and stop our deportation operations — But these lawless riots only strengthen our resolve." There are no riots, only a few tense moments. The protests have been led by Americans. The deportations have rounded up legal immigrants. But that hasn't stopped Trump from calling on his slavering administration of dead-eyed drunks, pedophile enablers, puppy killers, and Stephen Miller to launch a potential military attack inside the country and "to take all such action necessary to liberate Los Angeles from the Migrant Invasion, and put an end to these Migrant riots. Order will be restored, the Illegals will be expelled, and Los Angeles will be set free." This is in addition to ordering 2000 National Guard soldiers to Los Angeles (and declaring victory before they ever hit the ground). By the way, you know how you know it wasn't "Migrant riots"? Because if it was migrants, ICE and federal agents would have used lethal ammo and not flash bangs or tear gas. 

In a memorandum to the dead-eyed drunk, the pedophile enabler, and the puppy killer, the rapist president said, without a hint of irony, "To the extent that protests or acts of violence directly inhibit the execution of the laws, they constitute a form of rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States." You got that? If you slightly inconvenience the mass arrest of peaceful people, it's a rebellion. If you, say, rampage through the Capitol, vandalize the building, attack law enforcement, and prevent the constitutionally-mandated certification of the electoral votes in a presidential election while threatening to hang the vice-president, that's just patriotism, motherfucker, and fuck you if you say otherwise.

Trump and his evil criminal crew are making statements that have no basis in reality to a media ecosystem that will report it as fact to an audience that will only ever see the lies. Where we see Immigration and Customs Enforcement brutally rounding up migrants working their decidedly non-gang-related jobs at construction sites and restaurant kitchens, where we get outraged when a legal migrant checks in at a courthouse as she awaits her asylum hearing and ICE arrests her, where we want to explode with anger at the psychological and physical torture of children seeing their parents arrested or being rounded up and zip-tied themselves, the MAGAnistas are making their brain-dead followers believe that, somehow, 21 million criminals got into the country and joined MS-13 or that Venezuelan gang they can't pronounce and they now are taking over cities that the brain-dead have never heard of before Fox "news" yelled it at them. Or, you know, a "Migrant Invasion."

I honestly don't know how we get out of this without the violence that Trump so obviously craves. Everything has been building to this chance, whether it was calling for the Central Park (now the Exonerated) Five to be executed, or encouraging protesters at his Nazi rallies be beaten, or watching to see if Mike Pence or Nancy Pelosi were murdered on January 6th, he wants to kill some people so fucking badly so he can join the ranks of those he worships, so he can make up for all those times the Marxist liberal crazies got away with it. Remember that he had to be talked out of unleashing the military on Black Lives Matter protests. He won't be convinced this time.

The hope, of course, is that the people of Los Angeles, with our encouragement and support, will stand firm in the first real test of Trump vs. America. And one place to look for resistance is the unions, which are being decimated by ICE raids on worksites. Because ICE arrested and injured David Huerta, the genuinely beloved president of the Service Employees International Union in California, the thugs have pissed off the roughly 2 million workers in the SEIU. That's going to activate more protests, and it already has, with events called in Boston, Portland, and elsewhere. It's pissed off the local Teamsters in L.A., which called for "An end to the militarization of immigration enforcement that terrorizes communities and disrupts lives." This is on top of the intense union support for Kilmar Abrego Garcia, which continues to this day.

Things are getting more intense in California, with protests growing across L.A., with Gov. Gavin Newsom finding his spine and calling for the National Guard to be withdrawn. By the time you read this, shit might have gotten even worse.

You're going to see the protesters blamed, but there is only one person who caused all this, all of it, all this shit that's fucking up our lives, and it's Donald Trump. He could end this by stopping his deranged mission to bleach the United States white. But I think the chaos is his Viagra and he's not gonna stop until he fucks us all.


Thursday, February 27, 2025

Tangle - Kash Patel and Dan Bongino to lead FBI.

Kash Patel and Dan Bongino to lead FBI.

Tangle by Isaac Saul / Feb 27, 2025


My take.

Reminder: "My take" is a section where I give myself space to share my own personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism or compliments, don't unsubscribe. Write in by replying to this email, or leave a comment.


Patel leading the FBI is the result of a phenomenon unique to Trump.

Even taking prior criticisms of the FBI and its leadership as valid, both Patel and Bongino are at another level of concerning.

Patel is an ultra-loyalist, Bongino is even more out there, and I’m not optimistic about the FBI under their leadership.

Let’s play a game.


I’m going to share seven quotes. Some of them are real things Kash Patel and Dan Bongino have said. Some of them are made up. Let’s see if you can spot the fake ones.


“We’re blessed by God to have Donald Trump be our juggernaut of justice, to be our leader, to be our continued warrior in the arena.”

“My recommendation is Donald Trump should ignore this [court order]... who is going to arrest him? The marshals? You guys know who the U.S. Marshals work for? The Department of Justice, that is under the — oh yeah, the executive branch. Donald Trump is going to order his own arrest? This is ridiculous.”

“The only thing that matters is power. That is all that matters. ‘No it doesn’t, we have a system of checks and balances.’ Ha! That’s a good one. That’s really funny. We do?”

“The irony about this for the scumbag commie libs is that the cold civil war they’re pushing for will end really badly for them. Libs are the biggest pussies I’ve ever seen and they use others to do their dirty work. Their mommas are still doing their laundry for them as they celebrate tonight that their long sought goal of the destruction of the Republic has been reached. But they’re not ready for what comes next.”

“My entire life now is about owning the libs.”

“And you've got to harness that following that Q [of QAnon] has garnered and just sort of tweak it a little bit. That's all I'm saying. He should get credit for all of the things he has accomplished, because it's hard to establish a movement."

“We’re going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections. We’re going to come after you, whether it’s criminally or civilly. We’ll figure that out. But yeah, we’re putting you all on notice.”

Just kidding. They’re all real.


1, 6, and 7 were things Kash Patel said. 2, 3, 4, and 5 are things Dan Bongino said. 


It’s not hard to understand how we got here. During Donald Trump’s first term, he surrounded himself with some of the shadiest and most corrupt people in politics. The Paul Manaforts of the world invited questions about his connections to Russia; those questions turned into a media frenzy; that media frenzy drove FBI investigations; those investigations led to a special counsel; that special counsel nearly cost Trump his presidency. 


I’ve written before about the many things we got wrong about Trump and Russia. I don’t want to relitigate them here, but I think Trump deserved to be investigated and also was not guilty of colluding with Russia to win the 2016 election. As I feared at the time, one of the great consequences of the Trump investigation — the reason I desperately wanted the federal government’s probe to be on the up and up in every manner — was the politicized arms race that it set off. Once you open that Pandora’s box, there is no going back — especially not in the American partisan warfare of the 21st century.


Of all the ways the Trump investigation could have gone, our current reality is one of the worst possible iterations. Our politics have only become more polarized since 2016, and Trump just won reelection on a campaign largely centered on personal grievances and promises of revenge. He has no interest in depoliticizing federal institutions like the FBI; he wants to remake them in his mold. He has no interest in leaving anything in the past; he wants payback. He wants to fire every lawyer that was hired under Biden and fire every prosecutor that was involved not just in the “Russia hoax,” but also in prosecuting January 6, a day full of very real crimes. All of these motivations are evident in putting Kash Patel at the head of the FBI.


When Patel was first tapped by Trump, I wrote about a phenomenon I described as the “Trump circularity” — when Trump does some norm-breaking thing (for better or for worse) that puts all of our political footing onto new ground, which he then gets to mold to his own political advantage. 


Kash Patel and Dan Bongino are part of this circularity. Patel, at least, has some relevant experience, but I’m still not thrilled about him leading the bureau. He has openly promised retribution against Trump's political enemies, he’s made his career a loyalty show to Trump, he’s said the figure at the center of the QAnon cult should "get credit for all the things he has accomplished," he hawks dietary supplements to “reverse the vaxx n get healthy,” and he claims he’s going to crack down on leakers and prosecute journalists. He also still will not admit that Joe Biden won the 2020 election, and we found out during his confirmation hearing he has a massive conflict of interest in China. 


Say what you want about James Comey or Christopher Wray (and there’s plenty to criticize), but neither of them is even close to as politically compromised as Patel. They’re not even in the same galaxy. And if the politicization of the FBI is a thing you are worried about and loathe, if you were mad about Comey undermining Hillary Clinton or investigating Trump, or upset Wray’s FBI raided a president’s home, then this is the wrong direction to go. This leads us deeper down the hole.


As for Bongino, well… he is somehow even more out there. Personal disclosure: Soon after Trump came into office in 2016, before he was a famous podcaster, Bongino was constantly spreading easy-to-debunk nonsense on Twitter, and I used to call him out on it. We tangled on social media pretty regularly, arguing and calling each other not-so-nice names. In response, he blocked me. And then I watched his star rise — slowly at first, and then all at once, and now he’s a major celebrity with the online right. Mostly, his fame was driven by the kind of nonsense I used to call him out for.


In this line of work, I’m always conscious of how my readers might view me, and I’m sometimes wary of being too hard on one side of the aisle for consecutive days. We have a politically diverse audience looking for fair takes and a diversity of viewpoints. But in the “my take” section, my promise is not to seek a centrist position or toe the line. Instead, my promise is to be honest, even if it’s inconvenient for me and risky for my business. And the honest truth is that Kash Patel is an alarming FBI director with a smattering of good ideas that, weighed against everything else he’s said and done, completely fail to reassure us that he will act apolitically and in respect of the law. I’m not naive and sycophantic about the government enough to believe the FBI is some deeply ethical, non-political organization; it isn’t, and never has been. 


But it just got a lot worse. 


Bongino leading these agents is just hard to fathom. He’s so radical (again, just read a few sample quotes above) and so power hungry that I struggle to imagine what he’ll try to do with so much control. My only hope is that there are still enough ethical and law-abiding agents and lawyers among the FBI’s roughly 38,000 employees to check Patel’s and Bongino’s worst desires. But I can’t say I’m enthusiastic about the odds. 


Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Saving Medicaid Is a Better Democratic Strategy Than Fighting DOGE. Matthew Yglesias

Saving Medicaid Is a Better Democratic Strategy Than Fighting DOGE. Matthew Yglesias 

February 25 — Read time: 4 minutes


Not about DOGE, not about Ukraine, not about Kash Patel, not about the president implicitly or explicitly comparing himself to Napoleon or a king. For Democratic leaders in both the House and Senate, the preferred topic of discussion is the fiscal framework currently wending its way through the House of Representatives, where trillions of dollars in tax cuts will be partially offset with cuts to health care and food assistance for the poor.


Even Senate Democrats are working on strategies to defend programs such as Medicaid and SNAP, despite the fact that their Republican counterparts are advancing a separate strategy that largely leaves these programs alone. Budget Chair Lindsey Graham’s resolution is much more modest in scope than the House draft, focused on cutting funds for clean energy in order to put more money into immigration enforcement and the military. His take is that Republicans should get this done fast, and then discuss the larger question of taxes and the safety net later in a separate bill.


Democrats are not really engaging with Graham’s resolution, which they see as a mere vehicle to get to the House’s framework. That may or may not be true. But what is true is that House and Senate leaders from both parties are fundamentally agreed on where Democrats’ strongest ground is: defending the social safety net.


Former President George W. Bush tried to privatize Social Security, and he failed. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan tried to cut Medicare, and he failed. In his first term, President Donald Trump tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and he failed. Right now DOGE is generating huge levels of excitement or alarm, depending on who you talk to, but dealing with relatively trivial sums of money.


Medicaid, by contrast, is a genuinely big and expensive program. If you want to enact major tax cuts without rattling bond markets, and have decided that programs such as Social Security and Medicare are off limits, Medicaid is the obvious choice.


The 10 Largest Categories in the Federal Budget

If congressional Republicans are serious about cutting spending, it will be hard for them avoid some popular programs


Still, Medicaid itself is popular. Eighty million people currently enjoy Medicaid benefits, two-thirds of adults say they have some connection to the program through a close family member. What’s more, though many state-level Republicans continue to oppose Medicaid expansion, it has proved popular and durable in states as red as Louisiana, Kentucky and Kansas. Cutting this program is going to be politically costly for Republicans.


That explains why Trump is saying Medicaid “won’t be touched” even though Republicans’ plans call for massive cuts. It also explains why House Republican leaders think the best way forward is to slip Medicaid cuts into a big legislative package crammed with other stuff that their members can easily defend — like an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. And it explains why Senate Republicans have adopted the reverse strategy — first pass a bill with no Medicaid cuts, putting some points on the board, and turn to slashing the safety net later.


Finally, it explains why Democrats are eager to skip past everything currently dominating the headlines and talk about Medicaid cuts instead. It’s not just that it’s a good issue for them. It’s a unifying issue for a party that is leaderless and struggling to regain its footing after a gutting defeat. Not only does Senator Bernie Sanders champion Medicaid, but so do red state governors like Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Laura Kelly of Kansas.


Meanwhile, over the last decade Trump has rebuilt the Republican coalition into something that is much more (as a salesman like him might put it) downscale. His 2016 campaign brought large numbers of low-income White voters into the tent. In 2020 and 2024, he posted significant gains with working-class Black and Hispanic voters. The upshot is that a much larger share of SNAP and Medicaid recipients is now voting Republican than in the past. That makes it harder to slash programs they depend on.


The alternative, of course, is for Republicans to slash taxes without offsetting spending cuts. That’s what they ended up doing in 2001, 2003 and 2017. DOGE’s ongoing antics could provide rhetorical cover for this course of action. The actual amount of money being saved is trivial relative to the cost of Republicans’ tax ideas, but there is certainly a lot of public discussion of spending cuts.


The problem is that — unlike in 2001, 2003 or certainly 2017 — the US is now in a fiscal environment where the budget deficit and the inflation outlook are weighing on interest rates. This is hurting consumers looking to buy cars. It’s making it harder for homebuilders to add new supply. And it’s even become a fiscal problem on its own terms. As old bonds roll over into new ones at higher interest rates, spending on debt service is soaring.


Basic budgetary tradeoffs are more real and more important now than they have been at any point in the 21st century. If Republicans want to be the party of large tax cuts — and, by all indications, they very much do — then they will also have to be either the party of large cuts to programs for the poor or the party of higher interest rates for the middle class. Merely pointing this out is the first step on the Democrats’ road to recovery.


 

Brazil Stood Up for Its Democracy. Why Didn’t the U.S.? Quico Toro

 Brazil Stood Up for Its Democracy. Why Didn’t the U.S.?

For years now, politics in Brazil have been the fun-house-mirror version of those in the United States. The dynamic was never plainer than it became last week, when Brazilian prosecutors formally charged the far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro, along with 33 co-conspirators, with crimes connected to a sprawling plan to overthrow the nation’s democracy and hang on to power after losing an election in October of 2022.

That the charges against Bolsonaro sound familiar to Americans is no coincidence. Bolsonaro consulted with figures in Donald Trump’s orbit in pursuit of his election-denial strategy. But the indictment against Bolsonaro suggests that the Brazilian leader went much further than Trump did, allegedly bringing high-ranking military officers into a coup plot and signing off on a plan to have prominent political opponents murdered.

In this, as in so many things, Bolsonaro comes across as a cruder, more thuggish version of his northern doppelgänger. Trump calculated, shrewdly, to try to retain his electoral viability after his January 6 defeat; Bolsonaro seems to have lacked that impulse control. He attempted so violent a power grab that the institutional immune system tasked with protecting Brazil’s democracy was shocked into overdrive.

The distortion in the mirror is most pronounced with regard to this institutional response. While American prosecutors languidly dotted i’s and crossed t’s, Brazil’s institutions seemed to understand early on that they faced an existential threat from the former president. Fewer than seven months after the attempted coup, Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Court ruled Bolsonaro ineligible to stand for office again until 2030. Interestingly, that decision wasn’t even handed down as a consequence of the attempted coup itself, but of Bolsonaro’s abuse of official acts to promote himself as a candidate, as well as his insistence on casting doubt, without evidence, on the fairness of the election.

The U.S. might have done the same thing. In December 2023, Colorado’s secretary of state refused to allow Trump’s name on the state’s primary ballot, following the state supreme court’s judgment that his role in the events of January 6, 2021, rendered him ineligible to run for president. Trump appealed the legality of the move, and the case came before the U.S. Supreme Court. The justices could have done what their Brazilian counterparts did—ruled that abuses of power and attempts to overturn an election were disqualifying for the highest office of the land. Instead, in March 2024, they voted unanimously to allow Trump to stand.

My home country, Venezuela, faced a roughly analogous situation in 1999, when President Hugo Chávez moved to convene a constituent assembly to rewrite Venezuela’s constitution, which contained no provision for him to do so. Cowed, the supreme court allowed him to go ahead. Venezuela’s then–chief justice, Cecilia Sosa, wrote a furious resignation letter, saying that the court had “committed suicide to avoid being murdered.” The result in Venezuela was the same as that in the United States: The rule of law was dead.

I can’t help but wish that U.S. jurists had shown the nerve of their Brazilian counterparts. In their charging documents against Bolsonaro, Brazil’s prosecutors don’t mumble technicalities: They charge him with attempting a coup d’état, which is what he did. Brazilian law enforcement didn’t tie itself up in knots appointing special counsels; the attorney general, Paulo Gonet, announced the charges himself. The conspiracy “had as leaders the president of the Republic himself and his candidate for vice president, General Braga Neto. Both accepted, encouraged, and carried out acts classified in criminal statutes as attacks on the … independence of the powers and the democratic rule of law,” Gonet said.

Contrast that with the proceduralism at the core of the case against President Trump. After an interminable delay that ultimately rendered the entire exercise moot, Special Counsel Jack Smith charged Trump not for trying to overthrow the government but for “conspiring to obstruct the official proceeding” (that would lead him to lose power) as well as “conspiring to defraud the United States”—a crime so abstract that only a constitutional lawyer knows what it actually means.

In ruling Bolsonaro ineligible to run for office, Brazil’s elections court did not engage in lengthy disquisitions on 19th-century jurisprudence, as the U.S. Supreme Court did in the Colorado case: They said that he had serially abused his power, which is what he did, and which is what renders him unfit for office. This bluntness, this willingness to call a spade a spade, was something the American republic, for all its institutional sophistication, seemed unable to match.

As recently as 2014, one would have been hard-pressed to find anyone willing to forecast that Brazil’s institutions would prove more effective than those of the United States at protecting democracy from populist menace. Maybe Brazilians are just more comfortable with, and accustomed to, holding national leaders to account: The current center-left president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, spent more than two years in prison for corruption after his last stint in power. (Lula was ultimately freed and allowed to stand for office again when courts ruled that the judge in his initial prosecution was biased.) Or maybe it was the speed of response: Rather than waiting months or years to move against the rioters who took over the country’s governing institutions, the Brazilian police started jailing them and investigating the coup conspiracy almost immediately after it took place.

But the biggest difference is that dictatorship is a much more real menace in Brazil, a country that democratized only in the 1980s, than it is in a country that’s never experienced it. Older Brazilians carry the scars, in many cases literal ones, of their fight against dictatorship. This fight for them is visceral in a way it isn’t—yet—for Americans.

Brazil has demonstrated how democracies that value themselves defend themselves. America could have done the same.