Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Biden-Trump Debate: Whose Economy Would Be Better for Middle Class? By Matthew Yglesias

June 25, 2024 at 10:00 AM UTC


By Matthew Yglesias

Matthew Yglesias is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. A co-founder of and former columnist for Vox, he writes the Slow Boring blog and newsletter. He is author of “One Billion Americans.”

Read time: 4 minutes

This week’s presidential debate is a golden opportunity for Joe Biden to draw a contrast with his opponent on one of the most consequential yet neglected issues of the 2024 campaign: the federal budget deficit and its influence on middle-class living standards.


Many provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law by then-President Donald Trump in 2017, are scheduled to expire in 2025. But Republicans are pushing for the whole law to be made permanent, despite a $4 trillion price tag (and that’s before interest costs). Biden, if he wins, will oppose the extension of the law and push for higher taxes on wealthy households and corporations.


That stand hasn’t won the president friends in the business community, but it is absolutely the right call for middle- and working-class families struggling not so much with the cost of goods as with high cost of money. The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes have contained and reversed inflation, but they have also made it much harder to buy a new home, renovate an old one or finance a new car. These higher costs have meant less activity in the homebuilding sector and less investment in new domestic energy of all kinds.


Progressives tend to construe this problem rather narrowly as a question of Fed policy, and are hoping for rate cuts before Election Day. The Fed does matter, and that’s a reasonable hope. But in the long term, the policy that matters is fiscal, not monetary.


The latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office estimates a budget deficit amounting to 7% of GDP this year, a wildly unreasonable figure for a country enjoying a low unemployment rate. Fortunately, if the TCJA is allowed to expire, that percentage is expected to decline over the next few years. Those falling deficits should make it cheaper for both US households and US businesses to borrow money.


The Next President Will Have to Deal With This

As a percentage of GDP, the federal deficit is growing


Total deficit

Net interest outlays

Primary deficit

Projected

-10

0

10

20 %

1990

'95

'00

'05

'10

'15

'20

'25

2030

Source: Congressional Budget Office


None of this will happen, however, if Trump wins the election and blows trillions on tax cuts for the rich.


That’s particularly true because Trump is pairing his tax commitments with promises to increase defense spending, while also ruling out cuts to Social Security and Medicare, while also shrinking the labor force with steep cuts to immigration. Covering all those commitments with a smaller population and tax base is going to mean much more federal borrowing.


This kind of fiscal irresponsibility characterized Trump’s presidency — deficits steadily rose during his administration even before Covid, even though the economy was growing the whole time. But at least Trump had the good luck to take office during a time of ultra-low interest rates, so nobody really noticed or minded that his policies were pushing up the cost of money. Today’s economy is much more robust, but it is groaning under the legacy of debts incurred — mostly during Trump’s term, by the way, not Biden’s — during the pandemic.


Biden’s deficit argument is strong on both the merits and the politics. Taxing the rich is by far the most popular approach to addressing America’s fiscal issues. Yet it’s often challenging to get voters to focus on budget math and other tedious matters. That’s what makes this week’s debate so important.


To the extent that people tune into anything political these days, it will be the debate. Yes, a lot of them will be watching simply to see whether the president can string together a few coherent sentences (spoiler alert, for those who’ve already forgotten the State of the Union: He can). But Biden can use it as an opportunity to draw a contrast between him and the spendthrift he’s running against.


To take advantage of this opportunity, Biden needs to be smart about which points he emphasizes. In one sense, the president remains committed to the progressive agenda items that were cut as his expensive Build Back Better agenda was transformed into the more modest Inflation Reduction Act. Realistically, though, the odds of a bold new era of progressive policymaking happening in 2025 — regardless of who wins in November — are minimal. Democrats are unlikely to control Congress, and even if they do, it will be almost impossible for them to pass huge new spending programs.


The expiration of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, by contrast, will occur automatically. That means a big debate about taxes next year is inevitable — and the outcome of that debate will be profoundly shaped by the outcome of the election. If Democrats do well, taxes on the rich will rise and the deficit will shrink, at least temporarily. If Republicans do well, the deficit will explode and the bankruptcy of Social Security will accelerate.


The consequences will be profound for any middle-class voter who cares about mortgages, auto loans or small businesses in need of financing — but thus far few of these voters seem to realize it. This week’s presidential debate is Biden’s best chance yet to lay out the stakes.


Monday, June 24, 2024

American business should not empower a criminal, says Reid Hoffman

Read time: 5 minutes

Jun 6th 2024

WOULD NEW YORK be a global financial capital, or even a prosperous city, if markets had no basis for trusting the transactions that happen there? Obviously not.


Businesses and investors rely on a robust legal system—especially courts of law and impartial, fact-based trials by jury—to enforce contracts and punish fraud. That’s why, in the past decade alone, New York City prosecutors have brought thousands of felony charges for falsifying business records. It’s a crime because it strikes at American prosperity.


For American business, the rule of law is essential. It is the soil in which commerce can take root and grow. Without this stable, predictable, rules-based environment, New York, and America, would not have become the hubs of innovation, investment, profit and progress that they are.


Unfortunately, many American business leaders have recently developed a kind of myopia, miscalculating what politics, and which political leaders, will truly support their long-term success. Perhaps this stems from their having lived their entire lives in a stable legal regime that they now take for granted. But a robust, reliable legal system is not a given. It is a necessity we can ill afford to live without. We trade it away at our peril.


Which makes it all the more lamentable that a growing number of America’s corporate and financial leaders are opening their wallets for Donald Trump.


Of course, few of these leaders would do actual business with Mr Trump. Even fewer would trust him to pay his bills. Long before the Electoral College made him president in 2016, Mr Trump was known as a liar and grifter who would browbeat vendors and debtors. More recently, American courts—including two unanimous juries—have found him to have engaged in sexual assault, defamation, fraud (including misuse of charitable funds) and—by a unanimous Colorado Supreme Court—insurrection.


So why are so many of my business-leader peers writing cheques to give nearly unchecked power to a man with whom they wouldn’t sign a condominium contract? There are a few explanations.


Some kid themselves, or pretend, that Mr Trump can be normal and controlled. Never mind the striking refusal by his former vice-president, Mike Pence, to endorse him as the Republican nominee. Or the stinging words of John Kelly, Mr Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, who has called him “a person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our constitution, and the rule of law”. Dozens of other former Trump officials, military leaders and campaign operatives echo this analysis.


Others of Mr Trump’s business-class supporters claim that President Joe Biden is somehow more dangerous than the convicted felon and pathological liar. The laziest cite the actions of far-left figures who play no role in Mr Biden’s administration. Relatively more serious critics mention disagreeable Democratic economic policies. When they manage to get specific with their criticisms, I sometimes agree. But if economics is their metric, it seems not just irrational but deeply irresponsible for them to ignore some clear financial truths. Under Mr Biden America has hit record after record: in stockmarkets, oil and gas production, employment and more. And its GDP growth is the envy of most of the world’s economies.


Sadly, the true motives of some in Mr Trump’s camp are even uglier. He and his ideological allies have been quite explicit: upon regaining power, they intend to corrupt the legal system to use the state against political opponents. Some American elites support this autocratic agenda because in such a Trumpist regime they expect to be the new oligarchs. Others fear that opposing Mr Trump will bring retaliation, so seek safety by pledging loyalty.


Most conventionally, of course, there is the simple siren promise of a second Trump term’s lower corporate-tax rates and softer regulatory enforcement. But it’s all penny-wise at best, when stacked against the likelihood of, say, Justice, State and Defence Departments purged and restaffed with MAGA cronies, loyal not to the USA but to DJT.


There is a historical pattern to the collapse of the rule of law in advanced countries: it happens when powerful groups naively judge that a strongman will stay contained. Today’s pro-Trump business elites are making the same crucial mistake as any other influential group choosing to empower an autocrat. To paraphrase Tim Snyder, a Yale historian: “He is not your strongman—he is his own strongman.”


Mr Trump’s felony convictions in the Stormy Daniels election-interference case, and the subsequent Republican attack on the American judicial system, have clarified this election’s epochal stakes: the systemic rule of law versus the capricious rule of a strongman.


America’s rules-based system, with its stability and continuity, has delivered enormous gains to the country—and to humanity. America saw its first peaceful transfer of political power in 1801. This proud tradition went unbroken until the Capitol attack of January 6th 2021. And the man who broke with it, a criminal, is dead-set on scuttling the system that really did make America great.


When the courts go against him, as they so often have, Mr Trump claims—just like every other “wrongly” convicted felon—that the system is rigged. Meanwhile his lawyers have argued at the Supreme Court that as president he should be permitted any use of state violence. And Mr Trump’s party is now committed to delegitimising, rejecting and attacking juries, courts, elections and any other mechanisms that might hold the leader legally or electorally accountable. The danger speaks for itself.


In short, the rule of law is on the line in this election. Americans who prize respect for the law, stability and prosperity—including even business leaders who might value the last of these most highly—should take Mr Trump literally and seriously, and do everything they can to prevent his return to the White House. ■


Reid Hoffman is a tech entrepreneur, investor, philanthropist and co-founder of LinkedIn. He provided third-party financial support for E. Jean Carroll’s civil lawsuits, which led to two unanimous guilty verdicts against Donald Trump.


Saturday, June 22, 2024

Is the Marriage Between Haredim and Israeli Ultranationalists Beginni


archive.md
Is the Marriage Between Haredim and Israeli Ultranationalists Beginni…
7 - 9 minutes

Had he not been scythed down in his prime nine and a half years ago, this weekend would have been the 77th birthday of David Landau – the former Haaretz editor-in-chief and founding editor of its international English edition that you are now reading.

Those of us who were fortunate enough to have had him as our mentor when we were young journalists have often found ourselves asking in these past dark months: "What would David have said?"

He was an astute and immensely knowledgeable observer of Israel and Jewish life, who never allowed his boundless love for both to cloud his judgment. That doesn't mean, of course, that all his observations and judgments were necessarily right. But you can learn almost as much from the wrong calls of a wise person as you can from what they got right.

Nine months ago, just before the war began, I finished rereading David's seminal book "Power and Piety," on modern Jewish fundamentalism in Israel and the Diaspora. It was published in 1993 and I hadn't read in 25 years. I was amused to rediscover that the final chapter was titled "Peace in Their Time," and ended with Shas having joined Yitzhak Rabin's Labor government in the summer of 1992.

This is how the last passage in the book begins: "The Haredim, then, led by Shas, were on the cutting edge of Israel's move towards peace and regional conciliation."

דוד לנדאו

Former Haaretz editor-in-chief David Landau, who would have been 77 this weekend.Credit: Alex Levac

I remembered that sentence this week when, in the wake of the governing coalition crisis caused by the failure to pass the so-called rabbis law, Shas ministers and lawmakers rushed to give interviews promising that they had no intention of bringing down the right-wing government. How much has changed in Israel's religious politics over those past 32 years.

Lest you think me churlish for commemorating David with one of his mistakes, I have to add that religious politics was one of his special subjects. He was unique among Israeli journalists in being the only one to have a direct line to many of the senior rabbis of his day. That included Shas' spiritual leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, whom he had known well since the early 1970s, while writing for a secular newspaper that was openly and fiercely critical of them. No one understood them or could articulate their ideology to a general audience as well as David.

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And he was right at the time. Rabbi Ovadia's decision to enter Rabin's coalition – where the other main partner beside Labor was the left-wing Meretz party, which had just achieved its best ever result by winning 12 Knesset seats – was momentous. Unthinkable for the more hidebound, Ashkenazi, ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism. If Shas and Meretz could sit around the same cabinet table, then peace between Israel and its neighbors was in reach.

A few months after the book was published, it seemed as if David had been vindicated. The Israeli government, with Shas a member, and the Palestine Liberation Organization signed the Oslo Accords.

I'll spare you how it all went downhill from there – you know the story.

The most important political development of the last three decades is how the Haredim, their political power growing due to demography, abandoned their dovish positions and shifted sharply to the far-right end of the political spectrum.

We can't say for certain that the Oslo process would have necessarily succeeded if the ultra-Orthodox had not joined the ultranationalists. There is plenty of blame on the Palestinian side as well for its failure. But without this shift, Israel would not have been ruled by Likud governments for 22 of the last 30 years. Benjamin Netanyahu would not have become Israel's longest-serving prime minister. And even when Likud was in power, it would have governed with more moderate coalitions than the extreme one now in power.
Allied with Jewish supremacists

Whether or not those governments in an alternative Israeli history would have succeeded in making peace with the Palestinians, the bottom line is that in 32 years, we've gone from an Israel where the main Haredi party was the left's partner in trying to bring peace to the land, to an Israel where the ultra-Orthodox are allied with the Jewish supremacists.

In retrospect, it was inevitable. Back in 1990, two years before Shas joined the Rabin government, Rabbi Elazar Menachem Shach – the spiritual leader of the "Lithuanian," non-Hasidic stream and early patron of Shas (though it broke away from his patronage) – delivered his famous speech where he accused the kibbutzim of raising "rabbits and pigs." He further claimed that while the Haredim were not nationalists, they could not work with the godless left.

מליאת הכנסת פטור גיוס 11.6.24

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu smiling in the Knesset earlier this month after the Haredi draft exemption bill passed.Credit: Olivier Fitoussi

Shach had less supporters than Rabbi Ovadia, but he and his successors were more consistent. Within the stratified rabbinical leadership, an aging Ovadia was increasingly isolated and ultimately fell in line.

Then there was Arye Dery, Shas' political leader and ostensibly Ovadia's servant. But Dery's corrupt practices and fondness for bribes and other forbidden gifts put him in the crosshairs of the police and the courts. He went from being the favored coalition partner of Rabin and Shimon Peres to Netanyahu's key ally. It didn't matter that Ovadia had no interest in this alliance. Ultimately, those he entrusted to run the party's political affairs forced him into it.

But it would be wrong to blame just the craven rabbis and politicians.

Joining the right wing was a much more natural fit for the younger Haredi voters. They had been told for so many years that the secular leftists were out to destroy Yiddishkeit. Not only was the right more religious, it offered them an easier path to being Israeli patriots as well. They didn't have to serve in the army or join the workforce: Just hate the Arabs and accept that Netanyahu was God's chosen leader, and they could belong.

The alliance may be coming to its end. Netanyahu is clinging on to power, but he has no real future in the aftermath of the war in Gaza. He can't deliver the legislation the Haredim demand – especially not a renewal of the law exempting yeshiva students from military service. And large swaths of the right have turned against the ultra-Orthodox, demanding they either serve or be ostracized.

Neither is an alliance with the religious right an easy fit anymore. Most of the religious Zionist community is on the side of those who serve, and the supremacists, like Itamar Ben-Gvir, are anarchists who the staid Haredim find it hard to deal with.

It's far too early to predict a renewal of the alliance between Shas and the center-left. It and the rest of the Haredi community has been swept much too far to the extremes to make that viable in the foreseeable future. There is true hatred on either side that has to be overcome first. But a trend that has been decades in the making may be about to start shifting slowly into reverse.

Elon Musk is making political debate more toxic — here’s how to change course


thehill.com
Elon Musk is making political debate more toxic — here’s how to change course
Zachary Elwood, opinion contributor
6 - 7 minutes

Elon Musk often treats his political opponents with contempt. He uses the social media site he owns to call people morons and idiots, say they have a “mind virus,” and claim to know with certainty other people’s malicious intent. He treats people with contempt even outside political contexts (see the “pedo guy” thing.)

Musk’s contemptuous behavior amplifies the toxicity of our divides. Not only that, it’s self-defeating, as it strengthens and inflames his more extreme and passionate adversaries (just as his opponents’ contempt grants him more power). 

Criticisms of Musk (and others like him) are often incorrectly reduced to criticisms of their beliefs. But this criticism of Musk isn’t about his beliefs, but rather about how he handles disagreement and conflict. It’s not about the polarization of his beliefs, but about his affective polarization — his disdain for the “other side.”

Imagine a version of Elon Musk who believes mostly the same things, but who can see his opponents’ humanity and the better motivations for their beliefs, even as he also thinks they’re misguided. That version of Musk could still work for what he believed in, but could do so without amplifying antagonism and toxicity.

I actually share some of Musk’s views. I think some far-left ideas are harmful and divisive, and I think Democrats too often dismiss Republicans’ rational concerns on immigration and other issues. But no matter my political beliefs, I believe that how we engage is crucially important.

Americans will always have passionate disagreements. Our mode of engagement is the thing we are able to control. When we act in conflict-amplifying ways, we strengthen the most divisive and extreme people and ideas; we help build a toxic, chaotic and unstable society — where everyone loses.

I hve focused on Musk here, but I could also talk about polarizing figures on the left. For example, Keith Olbermann has long spoken in contemptuous and conflict-amplifying ways about his political opponents — ways that he himself would find upsetting if he heard such things from Republicans. 

One way to understand how our political toxicity builds is to imagine Olbermann and Musk in a room shouting at each other, each one’s contempt and anger feeding off that of the other, their beliefs growing more extreme and non-negotiable. Toxic conflict is a feedback cycle — a hurricane system driven by human emotions.

The truth is that humans are simply bad at understanding conflict dynamics. We aren’t good at talking about what makes someone a conflict-amplifier and seeing such traits as separate from the realm of beliefs. This is why we often get caught in conflict spirals. Our instincts on how to act when in conflict can be unhelpful and make matters worse. 

When we mix up and conflate people’s beliefs with their level of animosity, we can’t make persuasive criticisms of their unhealthy, harmful ways of engaging. Even our most well-meaning and constructive critiques will often be mistaken for criticisms of beliefs.

An important place to criticize such behaviors is on one’s own side political side, because criticisms of the “other side” are mostly ignored and distrusted by them. Our own political group is the main place we can actually work on reducing toxic approaches. 

Also, criticizing one’s “in-group” can reduce the animosity of the “other side” in counterintuitive ways. A 2014 study found that people who observed the “other side” debating and disagreeing lowered their anger. Our instincts make us feel that criticizing our group helps our opponents, when it can actually be what helps us lower conflict and achieve compromise. 

If we are to reduce conflict, we need more people willing to push back on bad and divisive ideas and behaviors in their own political group. We need more people willing to say things like, “I agree with your stance, but you’re speaking in inaccurate and insulting ways that amplify our divides.” A better understanding of conflict dynamics would help people do that.

Belief and the manner in which we engage are separate dimensions. But in the real world, the world of actual people, these things are closely connected. Undue hate and fear shift people’s beliefs, making those beliefs more extreme and unreasonable. For example, Olbermann’s extreme contempt can lead to him believe that the Supreme Court should be disbanded. Similarly, high animosity and fear leads to more distrust in elections.

If we want to reduce toxic and contemptuous politics, we need to think about the behaviors that make Elon Musk, and many others in our polarized society, conflict amplifiers. We need to see our divides as not just about political and cultural disagreements, but also about a conflict between those who want more animosity and those who want less.

We need more people to think about the polarizing behaviors in their own political group and ask themselves: Are these approaches creating a more toxic, chaotic and unstable future? Would I support these approaches if my political opponents did them? Do I really want to support people who act in these ways? Are these approaches actually amplifying extremism? Would pursuing my political goals in less polarizing, less angering ways actually help me achieve my goals?

Zachary Elwood is the author of “Defusing American Anger” and hosts the psychology podcast People Who Read People.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Thursday, June 20, 2024

My commentary on the 'conservatives"finally discovering what The Boys is actually about:

My commentary on the 'conservatives"
finally discovering what The Boys is actually about:

My favorite movie when I was young was Fight Club.  

Tyler Durden was my guy. Brad Pitt made that character seem like the coolest white dude on earth. I watched that movie so much I probably could have recited most of it.

Moving through the world with nothing but your brain, your words, and your hands, and you can get a couple hundred thousand people to follow you to the end of the world? Whatever the black version of that was, I want to be it because that was some dope shit. 

I have to say that it's a lot easier building a cult following with the internet.

Plus, the movie made fun of a lot of things. It made poked fun at mindless consumerism(the IKEA lifestyle), the corporatization of everything(little did they know back in 1999), climbing the corporate latter to nowhere, the unending male obsession with women, the ever decreasing outlets for masculinity, the search for meaning in life, culture, counter culture, everything. An endless list of the unintentional consequences of modern society were derided in this movie. Despite the shallow title, it was an exceptionally deep, thoughtful, and inspiring movie in a lot of ways.

It was about unplugging from the matrix more than even The Matrix.

And in 2000, for a teenageer(I'm old, I get it), even though there were hints all throughout the movie, when you finally get to the scene where EVERYTHING flips and you discover who the actual protagonist and antagonist are, there's nothing more mind blowing. 

You don't know what to believe. You don't know who to root for. And you probably subconsciously started aligning to an idealogy that seemed so freeing... and then you realize it was a foundation built on a sand dune.

Fast forward: I'm in mid 20s, haven't seen it a while, and with a fresh eye and more life experience, I happen to sit down and watch it. 

Shocking experience, let me tell you. Just like the first time watching that scene that flipped the meaning of the movie, just having lived some life after watching it had flipped the entire theme and meaning of the movie yet again.

While it still poked fun at the things it previously did, the solutions it had offered that I once idolized? It was poking fun at those too.

The fighting, the super cool friend who does all the wild shit and gets the girl, the hyper(now toxic) masculinity, the way the characters experience women in the movie (hint, it's pretty gay and I don't mean that as a slight in any way), the search for meaning in life for the protagonist, discovering zen, friendship and comradery, acting on your intentions, discovering purpose, how the masses who unplugged from the matrix just plugged into another matrix, and on and on and on. 

In every single way that I had once idealized the "cool" shit in that movie, I realized the director, David Fincher, was POKING FUN AT THAT TOO.

If anything, the one takeaway from the movie is that Fincher doesn't like any of those characters, isn't rooting for them in any way, doesn't want them to be idealized in any fashion at all, and you probably shouldn't infer any deeper meaning other than a general warning not to date or even follow insane people.

Do you know what building up this movie in my mind and attaching a piece of my identity to it only to have it collapse and be totally destroyed and did?

It made it an even greater movie.

As unsubtle a movie as it was in some ways, it was a movie for smart guys who weren't THAT smart. Otherwise you'd get it on the first watch and never watch it again. Or maybe you weren't smart enough to ever get it and you want to be Tyler Durden.

The Boys is kind of like that, but so over the top that even the dumbest guy alive shouldn't need 4 seasons to figure it out. 

If you're that dumb guy, it was ALWAYS making fun of you. You just never grew any intellectual or emotional intelligence and the director finally dumbed it down even further.

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Parents need digital tools to cope with 'first-grade barrier'

Parents need digital tools to cope with 'first-grade barrier'

The heavy burden Japanese public schools put on families is worsened by antiquated methods

BY YUKO TAMURA

CONTRIBUTING WRITER

Jun 17, 2024


The term shōichi no kabe, “first-grade barrier,” captures the hurdle that parents face when their children enter elementary school in Japan — one that I have been experiencing firsthand.

I left my full-time job after taking parental leave because of a lack of day care options. And I am not alone: Polls suggest most working mothers reconsider their work styles when their children start school because of the heavier burden that this new chapter entails. And while the number of elementary school students who use after-school facilities is at a record high of 1.45 million, over 16,000 others are still on waiting lists — the longest of which is in Tokyo, where I live, totaling around 3,500 children.


Time management and communication with schools are the two major hurdles that first-graders’ parents face. Both could be alleviated by adopting digital tools and a more flexible approach, but such solutions are still largely lacking in Japanese public schools.


Take arrival and dismissal policies. While most day care facilities open between 7 a.m. and 7:30 a.m., public elementary schools open their gates after 8 a.m. Besides, first graders often go home before lunch, especially in the first week after the entrance ceremony, held in April.


Some parents, especially those who have to work early or get back late, have no other option but to leave their children to make their own way to and back from school.


Given the growing demand for child care in the morning, elementary schools in municipalities such as Yokohama, the Tokyo suburb of Mitaka and Toyonaka City, Osaka Prefecture, are accessible as early as 7 a.m. As for dismissals, most public elementary schools simply encourage pupils to go home by themselves, although schools in Tokyo’s Toshima Ward at least have a clocking-out system that automatically emails parents when children pass the school gates.


Of note is that schools in Japan are basically open to the public, which can lead to safety concerns: Security cameras are not always present and schools do not have security guards or rigorous visitor management systems. When I received a family pass from my daughter’s school, it was just a piece of paper that I had to cut out myself.


As for absences, while the pandemic accelerated the adoption of online reporting systems, paper-based communication using planners known as renrakuchō remains widely in use. These are kept in students’ backpacks and teachers and parents can write to each other in them. If parents need to tell a teacher when and why their child is off, sometimes they have to go to the trouble of finding other pupils to bring their children’s renrakuchō to school.


In fact, public schools do not welcome phone calls from parents, except in emergencies. In addition, a recent survey revealed that most public school teachers still use fax machines and stamps instead of e-signatures.


Another means of communication is newsletters. Typically issued once a week by homeroom teachers, these are used to report school events to parents. To arrange in-person parent-teacher interviews, teachers ask parents for available dates either through these newsletters or the renrakuchō. Parents then ask their children to hand in their replies — a back-and-forth that can be very inconvenient if, for example, dates need to be rescheduled.


Meanwhile, private schools are increasingly digitalizing these processes by using Zoom calls and apps such as Codmon and Tetoru.


While the education ministry instructed schools in 2020 to implement digital tools for more immediate teacher-parent communication, this has not materialized, causing some confusion among parents. Schools still rely heavily on analog systems while slowly introducing apps mainly for one-way, school-wide announcements.


Ineffective communication is also detrimental to education. Basic information that families need before enrolling children in school, including their expected reading and writing levels, is often unclear until the first semester begins. This leads to unhappy students getting labeled as bad readers or writers, for example, even though what they lack is simply having had the opportunity to practice the alphabet beforehand.


Even the types of school bags deemed appropriate are unknown to families until they attend an in-person parental gathering before the entrance ceremony (with no online alternatives). However, many parents go ahead and buy randoseru —cumbersome hard-sided leather backpacks considered necessary for carrying heavy books — sometimes up to a year before the ceremony.


Randoseru are, in fact, not mandatory. However, few municipalities — with the exception of the outspoken governor of Chiba — let parents know that other backpacks are also acceptable.


The education ministry’s GIGA School Program aims to improve digitalization in learning by providing one electronic device per public school student. Ironically, first graders are increasingly being offered tablets and learning to type using apps while teachers and parents still fumble with wads of paper.


Some argue that digitalization increases teachers’ workload. However, given the number of intricate newsletters published weekly, there seems to be a lot of room to improve efficiency. I am not the only one wondering why I have to wait for a sheet of paper to know my interview schedule and that I need to prepare certain items, such as gardening gloves, for my daughter to bring to school.


After school, parents face yet other challenges. Not only are many not able to access day care facilities, but they are responsible for marking homework and checking if children can read extracts from their textbooks out loud. With an ever-increasing number of working parents, the environment surrounding children has not kept pace with the speed of societal change.


While old traditions such as heavy randoseru and paper newsletters are still in full swing, expectations on children keep growing as they take on new subjects such as computer programming and conversational English. Embracing digital tools in public schools would not only allow for smoother processes, but minimize the time lag separating teachers and parents. If not, the hurdle of the first grade will only get higher.


Yuko Tamura is a frequent Japan Times contributor and editor-in-chief of Japonica Publication.

Monday, June 17, 2024

Climate Change: Carbon Pricing Is Coming to America, Like It or Not. By Mark Gongloff

Read time: 5 minutes


The late economist Milton Friedman, the patron saint of conservative capitalism, didn’t have much use for government involvement in business. But he made an exception for pollution. If an industry spoils the environment, he often said, then the government should tax it until it cleans up its act. Because if polluters can pollute for free, then they are essentially stealing wealth and well-being from everybody else.


When he said that in the 1960s and ’70s, he was talking about smog and the like. But as scientists and oil companies knew then, and we all know now, carbon dioxide is another form of pollution, one that is heating the world and threatening human civilization. Making polluters pay a price for this negative externality, as Friedman would call it, is an idea that is not only conservative and capitalist and moral but also a boon to both the environment and federal budgets.


So, naturally, the world’s shining bastion of conservative capitalism, the United States, consistently rejects Friedman’s idea. Fortunately, plenty of other countries are getting on board with it. And they may soon enough drag the US into joining them.


Fifty countries now have national systems for pricing carbon, involving a carbon tax, emissions trading or a combination of both, according to the latest World Bank tally. These systems cover 24% of the world’s carbon emissions, up from just 7% in 2013.


Carbon Pricing Is Catching On

Dozens of governments have instituted or are actively considering taxes, trading systems or other methods of making carbon pollution more costly


Pricing mechanism in place

Under consideration or development

Source: World Bank


Note: Several US states have pricing mechanisms. Excludes voluntary credit markets in Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Data for policy positions in distinct regions.


Dozens of local governments have their own mechanisms, including California, Massachusetts and Washington. Nineteen countries and 13 more local governments are actively debating or preparing to take up the practice, including six more US states.


The US government is one of just three members of the Group of 20 nations that are in no hurry to price carbon. The other two are Russia and Saudi Arabia (and even Saudi Arabia is at least about to launch a voluntary carbon-credit market, for whatever that’s worth). This is not what you would call good company, though it is perhaps understandable — all three are large producers of fossil fuels. Refusing to price carbon amounts to a $700 billion annual gift to US oil companies.


But the pressure to change is building, even if the pace is still too slow. Carbon pricing raised a record $104 billion in revenue last year, a far cry from the trillions needed annually to deep-six fossil fuels and avoid the most catastrophic climate change. US involvement would move the needle significantly.


Europe, of all places, may be the source of the most pressure. The European Union is transitioning to a carbon tariff, called the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, that will be fully in place in 2026. This will charge foreign exporters for the emissions they generate in the production process, which will move the market’s invisible hand to favor cleaner production. And it will be fair because EU producers already pay a price for carbon as part of the union’s cap-and-trade system. The tariff and the trading system work together to set a carbon price that everybody pays.


Another key detail about the CBAM is that it gives exporters a break if they can prove they’ve already paid a carbon fee in their home countries. That will push those countries — including the US — to set their own carbon price or get left behind, MIT economist Catherine Wolfram noted in a recent session at Harvard University’s Climate Action Week.


Not that there aren’t plenty of other great reasons for the US to jump on board. At the session with Wolfram was Harvard economist James Stock, who estimated that adding a carbon tax to the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean-energy incentives would cut US carbon emissions by 66% by 2035, easily surpassing the Biden administration’s stated goal of cutting emissions in half by 2030. Without it, the country is on a path to climate failure.


“No models indicate the 2030 US climate target would be met with the IRA alone,” Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island said on the panel. He has proposed legislation for both a domestic carbon price and a border tariff. “If we want a pathway to climate safety, it will require we do what’s economically and morally right and price carbon pollution.”


A carbon tax could also raise $2 trillion over a decade, Wolfram said, putting a huge dent in the federal budget deficit when everybody is starting to panic about it again. That estimate is consistent with other studies — though a new one from researchers at the University of British Columbia suggests a global carbon tax could raise $2 trillion per year, enough to cover a universal basic income for the entire planet.


As Whitehouse noted, US manufacturers are already two-thirds less carbon-polluting than those in, say, China. This means Europe’s tariff will benefit them even if the US doesn’t lift a finger to impose its own price. But doing so would benefit them even more while also tweaking China. That calculus has inspired bipartisan interest, including a bill by Republican Senators Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Lindsay Graham of South Carolina proposing their own carbon tariff.


As my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Liam Denning noted, Cassidy has gone out of his way to deny his tariff would amount to carbon pricing. Without a domestic carbon price, a border tariff probably wouldn’t be fair enough to withstand World Trade Organization scrutiny, Wolfram suggested. Still, the bill was another encouraging sign that momentum is growing toward the US finally taking Milton Friedman’s advice. It can’t happen soon enough.



This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

If Rates Stay Higher for Longer, Then the US Will Need a Carbon Tax. By Matthew Yglesias

Read time: 4 minutes


The longer interest rates stay higher, the stronger the case grows for … a carbon tax.


Hear me out. The one great legislative push for carbon pricing, in 2010, came at a time of sky-high unemployment and low interest rates. It fell apart, but US emissions decreased anyway as newly plentiful natural gas started to crowd out more emissions-intensive coal. Over the next decade, the world’s entrepreneurs and engineers — assisted by modest government programs in the US and elsewhere — made considerable progress on bringing down the cost of manufacturing photovoltaic panels and batteries, helping to accelerate global investment in clean energy.


This mix of technological progress and cheap money laid the conceptual groundwork for the approach of President Joe Biden’s administration: Subsidize innovation and deployment, and let God and the Federal Reserve sort out the rest.


What’s not cheap anymore is money itself, with interest rates up as part of the Fed’s effort to control inflation. Now the central bank says it expects just one rate cut this year. But even if it cuts twice, there’s no prospect of rates going all the way back down to their pre-Covid levels, especially with the budget deficit both high and rising.


High interest rates are a problem for a lot of businesses and industries, but they are a particular problem for clean energy. A fossil-fuel plant has two kinds of costs: First you have to build it, then you have to buy the raw materials it needs to operate. Wind and sunshine are free, which means the cost of a renewable project is essentially a function of the initial cost of construction. Those costs are heavily influenced by interest rates. When rates are low, it’s easy to make the financial case for a large initial outlay that pays off in long-term fuel savings. When rates are high, it’s hard to make that case.


Nuclear energy, which is still the largest source of zero-carbon electricity in the US, is similarly disadvantaged but for different reasons. Nuclear plants are expensive to build, but they provide electricity for very long periods of time — three to four times as long as renewables — so once again, financing costs are crucial.


There are other reasons to adopt a carbon tax, of course, as my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Mark Gongloff has noted. Some 50 countries now have either a carbon tax, a carbon-trading system, or some combination thereof, so it may well be inevitable that some form of one comes to the US. And as my colleague Liam Denning has noted, some Republicans will support a carbon tax as long as it’s called something else.


There is another argument that may appeal to Republicans, or at least pre-Trump Era Republicans: A carbon tax will help reduce the federal deficit. I’m not naïve enough to argue that Republicans really care about deficits, but if Biden wins re-election, they will pretend to. Either way, deficits will matter: The kind of full-employment, high-pressure economy that the Biden administration has engineered means living in a world of tradeoffs.


When it comes to deficit reduction, there’s no politically painless way to do it. That’s why Donald Trump is campaigning on a set of promises that, if enacted, would explode the deficit. And it’s why Joe Biden, though hewing to a more responsible approach, has been reluctant to put any really big deficit-reduction ideas on the table.


Still, doing nothing is not a particularly palatable option — especially if it means higher mortgage costs and more expensive auto loans for the middle class. Of the options on the table, Republicans would probably prefer carbon taxes to higher ones on business and investment income. And Democrats would certainly prefer carbon taxes to cutting Medicaid and other vital social safety-net programs. Under the circumstances, phasing out clean-energy subsidies while phasing in taxes on dirty energy could be an appealing win-win that meets Democrats’ climate goals and delivers substantial deficit reduction.


A swap of that sort would also be closer to the original stated purpose of the subsidies as an effort to drive innovation. Technological progress is at the core of the world’s progress on climate change, but that justifies temporary rather than permanent subsidies.


Last but by no means least, a carbon tax is by far the best way to deal with the huge increase in electricity demand spurred by AI data centers. On the one hand, this rising demand threatens to torpedo various environmental goals. On the other, the prospect of environmental litigation and roadblocks stymieing AI deployment risks America’s broader place in the global economy.


The longtime technocratic appeal of a carbon tax is precisely that it lets a country strike an appropriate balance. It can allow genuinely valuable uses of fossil fuels to go forward while also making those who use them pay their true costs.


But pouring open-ended subsidies into a growing pool of electricity demand would be financially ruinous. Trying to cap the total amount of electricity use in the face of technological progress would be economically ruinous. And ignoring the impact of electricity generation on the climate would be ecologically ruinous. Charging fees that are scaled to the social cost of carbon, and using the revenue to help balance the national books and provide services, is still the best and most prudent way to balance all the various considerations.


America’s sojourn into the world of near-zero interest rates and free money made other approaches to climate policy look superficially attractive. Now that we’re back in the real world of tradeoffs, the old solution — a carbon tax — is still the best.


Sunday, June 16, 2024

Dems Need to Get in the Ring With MAGA. Take It From Voters

Focus groups and surveys reveal red alarms but also opportunities for Biden: Voters need to hear Dems warning about MAGA agenda and countering it
June 15, 2024
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 31: U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on former U.S. President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in his hush-money trial before speaking on the Middle East at the White House on May 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. Biden said Trump had a fair trial and an impartial jury found him guilty on all 34 counts and added it is dangerous for anyone to say the trial was rigged. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on former U.S. President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in his hush-money trial before speaking on the Middle East at the White House on May 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. Biden said Trump had a fair trial and an impartial jury found him guilty on all 34 counts and added it is dangerous for anyone to say the trial was rigged. CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES
Watching focus groups isn’t a good way to make yourself feel better about America, especially when their participants assert inconvenient truths. I know this first hand because for the last four years, I have acted as Senior Adviser to the Research Collaborative, which has done 25 focus groups and frequent surveys this year alone, zeroing in on different demographics in two critical voting blocks across six battleground states: disaffected Democrats, who previously voted for Biden and are now considering sitting it out, skipping the top of the ticket, or voting third party; and disaffected swing voters, who vote across party lines when they vote at all. 

If my colleagues and I took a shot everytime someone in these groups decried the Democrats as doing nothing on the fascism front, we’d have cirrhosis.

As one disaffected Democratic white woman from Arizona said in April, “I don’t think any of them care really. Even if Democrats won the House, the Senate, the presidency, they’ve had it before — didn’t do anything then.” 

Last month, a disaffected white Democratic man in Pittsburgh pointed out that “Biden ran in part on protecting Roe v. Wade,” and noted that Democrats stalled for weeks on legislation codifying federal protections for abortion, despite the early leak of a draft Dobbs decision overturning the landmark high court decision. “Not that I have a womb,” he went on to say, “but materially for me as an individual and as a voter, it doesn’t really matter whether the Republicans are actively taking the rights away or the Democrats are allowing them to be taken away because they’re being corroded regardless.” 

On June 11, a multi-state online swing Latinas focus group similarly found the Democratic response to Dobbs frustrating. As one participant put it, “Democrats need to get it together. Yesterday, actually. The fact that there are women suffering through this … Republicans are being loud, they’re standing up.”

The 50 Worst Decisions in Movie History
Democrats may gnash their teeth at what feels unfair — these voters don’t understand the filibuster, state laws are not under Biden’s purview — but the general lament that a right-wing rampage is happening on Democrats’ watch is not temporally wrong. Nationwide legal protection for abortion did indeed come undone under Biden. Voter suppression — from prohibitions on handing out water, to polling place closures, to license to baselessly challenge people’s votes — went into overdrive in red and purple states during the Biden years. 

The higher-information folks in these conversations offer up details about how Dems’ milquetoast approaches have failed, from allowing Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to deny Merrick Garland a Supreme Court seat, to not insisting Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg retire and therefore making room for Amy Coney Barrett on the bench. They note how Democrats had a governing trifecta for two years and failed to codify Roe or pass voting rights legislation that would have combated state-based efforts to seize people’s most fundamental freedoms over our bodies and our ballots. 

Democrats did not just fail to protect voters from MAGA’s efforts to drag red state residents back a century. They did not try very hard — and to many voters, that still appears to be the case. See: the initial response to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. 

Biden and other Democrats have since lost their aversion to speaking about what was once called the “a-word.” But many disaffected voters believe actions speak louder than words, and they are disappointed on this front. 

The same goes for the tepid approach to pushing through the Freedom to Vote and John Lewis Voting Rights Acts. To be sure, Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema cosplaying as Democrats while sucking up donor dollars were absolutely impediments to passage. But Democratic leaders in the Senate and the White House rarely spoke about Manchin and Sinema’s roles in shutting down these critical bills — and chose not to put public pressure on these senators to pass them. Since Authoritarianism 101 rests on undermining the electoral process, as MAGA knows, Biden’s reelection campaign could help spotlight the threat and demonstrate their commitment to tackling it by continuing to tout plans to pass legislation for voting rights and ensuring free and fair elections. 

Clarence Thomas Was Gifted Even More Private Jet Trips Than We Knew
More recently, despite recordings and reports of corruption and conflicts of interest among Republican-appointed justices on the Supreme Court, the response from Senate Democrats has been fairly limited, even as justices push the nation’s laws far to the right, overturn key parts of the Biden agenda, and consider giving Donald Trump a license to commit crimes with a lifetime immunity shield.

Voters are increasingly aware of and incensed about these supremely obvious examples of justice being a pay-to-play proposition. And while anger is directed at Supreme Court justices, there’s spillover onto Democrats who appear to be doing nothing about it. 

We posed this forced choice to a sample of 1,216 likely voters May 31-June 1: “Thinking about Justices Thomas and Alito accepting gifts from billionaires, Thomas’s wife’s role in January 6 and Alito’s flags, which of the following more closely represents your view?”

Despite the clear partisan priming, voters favored a statement saying that “Senate Democrats must pursue investigations into potential conflict of interest and wrongdoing by Supreme Court Justices, especially as they are currently considering whether or not Donald Trump is immune from facing criminal trial for his alleged role in the attempted overthrow of the 2020 election” by 12 points over the argument that “Senate Democrats must allow the Supreme Court to remain independent and should not interfere in the actions of this separate branch of government.” 

Unsurprisingly, this split was much larger among Democratic voters, who favor action over allegiance to norms that no longer exist by 81 percent to 19 percent. Undecided voters also demonstrated a serious preference for oversight — 63 percent to 37 percent. 

Reflecting on whether this election represents a fork in the road between contrasting futures, a different white man in the aforementioned Pittsburgh group offered us this analogy: “I put it as if you were driving towards a lake, but you were going to head into the lake, and that one choice feels like you’re speeding towards the lake and the other feels like you’re driving downhill and then the brakes fail. But ultimately, you’ll both end up in the lake the same way, just at a different speed and a different sort of intensity.” Answering this same question this month, a South Philadelphia white woman quipped, “I think it’s more like a fork in the electrical outlet. I think we’re damned if we do and we’re damned if we don’t.” 

Is it any wonder there’s a lack of belief in the efficacy of voting, especially among disaffected Dems, who feel that they were told to turn out in 2020 to stop terrible things from happening, only to see those terrible things happen anyway? It’s challenging to sell voters on the same premise this year. 

Though swing voters offer oddly rosy recollections of Trump’s purported economic prowess or assert that under his tenure the world wasn’t at war, the voters in our groups aren’t actively championing him. And the disaffected Dems are repulsed by him and MAGA Republicans more generally. However, both swing voters and disaffected Democrats voice constant frustrations about a continuation of the status quo. 

So, if folks aren’t keen on four more years of the present, what does that leave us? Painting for voters the hellscape that awaits them under MAGA Republican rule. Handily, Republicans have typed it up in over 900 Heritage Foundation-authored pages. It’s called Project 2025 and offers such choice delights as purging the civil service of anyone unloyal to the regime, restricting contraception, dismantling the Department of Education, eliminating labor and environmental protections — and those are just some highlights! 

When we test out elements of Project 2025 or show voters direct quotations from Trump, they respond with swift and widespread disapproval. Turns out, Americans like porn and they don’t want anyone trying to have it outlawed and its purveyors imprisoned — as Project 2025 claims it will do. People outside the cult of Trump aren’t so hot on a MAGA dictatorship.

Where we run into problems is that when voters learn for the first time of these horrors, many wonder why Democrats don’t seem to be speaking out about them or fighting back. In an online group across battleground states on June 11, one swing Latina participant summed up these sentiments, saying that “the Democrats have to step it up. Where is the counter agenda?” More darkly, Asian-American disaffected swing men the same night didn’t like MAGA’s plan but noted that at least they have one. 

Still, others don’t believe that Trump and MAGA will pass this agenda. From May 17-19, we asked a sample of 1,213 likely voters, “As part of an effort called Project 2025, right-wing think tank the Heritage Foundation researched, developed, and released a 920-page agenda that sets out Republican plans for every aspect of Americans’ lives, from elections to education and from health care to religion. It includes banning abortion and contraception, eliminating corporate regulations, and increasing presidential power. Which of the following do you feel is most likely to occur if Republicans regain control of the government in November?” A mere 21 percent of voters selected “Republicans would succeed in implementing this agenda.”

Flipping this question on its head, we asked the following of 1,216 likely voters from May 31-June 1: “Republicans have outlined a comprehensive agenda for Donald Trump’s second term. This agenda includes restricting access to contraception and abortion, removing checks on the power of the president, and making cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Regardless of how you feel about it, which of the following best describes why Republicans will succeed in enacting their agenda if they regain power in November?” Given a list of arguments for why Republicans could enact their will, 26 percent of voters maintained incredulity.

What’s most striking is that members of this unbelieving lot are 9 points lower in their support for Biden today than they were in 2020, whereas the rest of the sample’s support for the president remains unchanged. This fits with a pattern noted by New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn: The less tuned in voters are to Trump’s recent statements and plans, the more their support for Biden has eroded. 

The widely reported fact of Biden bleeding support from key 2020 constituencies including young people and people of color merits a cold hard look at causation. Pundits pounced to attribute these drops to some sudden onset of Trump-attraction and insist Biden has to moderate. But in reality, most of those moving away from Biden are either utterly unaware of or refuse to credit MAGA’s well-laid plans to control our lives and our livelihoods. The erosion in support isn’t driven by the lure of Trump and cannot be cured by Biden adopting lite versions of his policies. It stems from lack of awareness of what Trump and the rest of the MAGA mob say and intend; thus the only way forward is to ensure voters hear the alarm bells and believe the emergency is real.  

Monday, June 10, 2024

The Question of Palestinian Statehood - Boston Review


www.bostonreview.net
The Question of Palestinian Statehood - Boston Review
Leila Farsakh
22 - 28 minutes

The quest for Palestinian statehood has long been central to the Palestinian national struggle. In 1971 the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) declared the creation of a single democratic state in historic Palestine inclusive of Christians, Jews, and Muslims to be its goal and the only just solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In 1988 it issued the Palestinian Declaration of Independence, which implied that the PLO accepted the two-state solution, just as its chairman, Yasser Arafat, officially recognized Israel. These developments paved the way to the Oslo peace process in 1993. By 2023, the State of Palestine was officially recognized by 139 of 193 member states of the United Nations, which admitted it as a nonmember state in 2012.

Of course, Palestine remains far from independent or sovereign, having suffered under Israeli occupation throughout this whole period. In the thirty years following the signing of the first Oslo Accords, Israel allowed the transfer of over 500,000 Israeli Jewish settlers to the occupied West Bank (including East Jerusalem), built more than half of a planned 712-kilometer separation wall around it, developed hundreds of checkpoints and roadblocks that fragment Palestinian areas into separate population reserves, and launched five wars against the Gaza Strip, which it has kept under siege for over seventeen years. Already in 1999, Edward Said concluded, “the problem is that Palestinian self-determination in a separate state is unworkable.” The internationally endorsed two-state solution—indeed the prospects for any viable Palestinian state—were thus undermined even before the brutal attacks of October 7 on Israeli civilians and military personnel.

Palestinians need to move beyond the mirage of the two-state solution.

The ever-growing toll of Israel’s ensuing genocidal war on Gaza has only reinforced judgments that the quest for Palestinian statehood has become futile. The failed April 2024 UN Security Council vote on admitting the State of Palestine into the UN as a full member shows the intransigence of Israeli and U.S. objections. As the number of Palestinians killed continues to rise—as of this writing, more than 34,000 have died, while more than 1.7 million have been displaced and much of the population faces the risk of famine—it has become clear that Palestinians need to move beyond the mirage of the two-state solution.

Even before this war, Palestinians have been grappling with the failure of the two-state solution, forcing them to reassess the relationship between statehood and self-determination and imagine a political resolution that goes beyond partition. The war has compelled them to rethink what political liberation might look like and how to articulate an alternative to the present impasse—one that is democratic, viable, and capable of protecting the equal political rights of Palestinians and Jewish Israelis.

Ever since Palestinians were expelled from their land during the 1948 war, they have sought to fulfill their UN-enshrined right of return. The establishment of the PLO by the Arab League in 1964 reaffirmed this right, but its charter did not specify statehood as part of its mission of liberating Palestine from Zionist colonialism. Only with the ascendance of guerrilla groups into the executive committee of the PLO in the aftermath of the 1967 Six-Day War did the Palestinian national movement tie return with self-determination and political liberation with statehood. The Palestinian struggle for self-determination, however, always carried a certain ambiguity about the relationship between national liberation and statehood.

In this regard, the Palestinian national movement was not much different from most anticolonial liberation movements of the twentieth century. The concept of self-determination, internationalized with Vladimir Lenin’s defense of people’s right to national independence and reframed by Woodrow Wilson’s Fourteen Points in 1918, laid the foundation of a world order composed of nation-states; by 1960 it had become the juridical basis for all national quests for political independence from colonial domination. UN Resolution 1514, adopted that year by the UN General Assembly (UNGA), affirmed self-determination as a fundamental human right. It also declared colonialism a “denial of fundamental human rights” and specified that “all people have an inalienable right to complete freedom, the exercise of their sovereignty and the integrity of their national territory.” It thus made self-determination synonymous with national territorial sovereignty—that is, with statehood. An international consensus had thereby been formed around the necessity of independent statehood as a first, if not sufficient, step toward political liberation.

But not all anticolonialists agreed. Many considered the right to self-determination as a people’s right to define their political future and choose their own political system of government. They maintained that sovereignty is enshrined above all in the people, or nation, rather than in a territorially bound state per se. These antcolonialists understood the pursuit of self-determination as part of a larger project of remaking the world beyond the Westphalian order of sovereign nation-states. They were aware of what revolutionaries from Toussaint Louverture to Frantz Fanon have warned against: that national independence does not guarantee liberation, for it can create new forms of domination.

In the case of Palestinian statehood, the defining moment of 1971 came when the eighth Palestinian National Council (PNC) convention adopted a unanimous resolution calling for “a democratic Palestinian state” that would be set up “in a Palestine liberated from Zionist imperialism,” where “all who wish to do so can live in peace with the same rights and obligations.” The convention made clear that “Palestinian armed struggle is not a racist or sectarian struggle against the Jews.”

Nationalists were clear about opposing Zionism as a project of domination rather than rejecting Jews for their identity.

This vision emerged in the face of international denial of the Palestinian question—best exemplified in UN Security Council Resolution 242 of 1967, which acknowledged the right of each state in the region to “live in peace within secure and recognized boundaries” but did not refer to the Palestinians by name. It simply referred to them as refugees in need of a humanitarian solution, thereby denying their national political character as a people with a right to self-determination.

The PLO’s state project was thus as much a matter of national self-affirmation as of political actualization. It aimed to assert Palestinian peoplehood, which Zionism sought to eradicate, as much as to articulate a decolonial political future inclusive of all those who live on the land. While many doubted the sincerity of this inclusive vision—and Israel outright rejected it—Palestinian nationalists were clear about opposing Zionism as a racial colonial project of domination rather than rejecting Jews for their identity.

The PLO’s diplomatic and legal efforts in this regard came to fruition in 1974 with UNGA Resolution 3236, which affirmed the legitimacy of Palestinian anticolonial struggle and right to “national independence and sovereignty.” The UN national assembly then also recognized the PLO as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and invited it to participate in the work of the General Assembly like any non–member state, such as the Vatican. Meanwhile, the PLO continued to act as a state in exile, with its various political institutions, electoral structures, and economic services, representing and providing for Palestinians in the diaspora as well as for those under Israeli occupation. In 1974 the PNC’s twelfth session adopted the Ten Point Program, which specified that the PLO would employ all means “for the liberation of Palestinian land and setting up a patriotic, independent national authority on every part of the Palestine territory that will be liberated” as part of its strategy for the establishment of a democratic Palestinian state.

The adoption of this program meant that the PLO effectively gave up on the idea of remaking the regional and international order of nation-states. It implicitly admitted the international consensus on the partition of Palestine and the framework for peace outlined in UN Resolution 242. Although many Palestinians contested the possibility of a Palestinian state without dismantling Zionism first, the majority accepted that national independence was a first step toward national liberation, even if the content and shape of this state—as well as the extent to which its creation would be the means to, or the end of, decolonization—remained contested.

Linking self-determination with statehood thus gave the Palestinian liberation struggle a concrete political meaning in an international system that bestowed on states the primary responsibility of representing and protecting the human and political rights of citizens. This view gained strength after Israel’s war against the PLO in Lebanon in 1982 and the failure of Arab states to come to the rescue of the Palestinians. The PLO’s Declaration of Independence in 1988, announced after the outbreak of the First Intifada, represented the official Palestinian acceptance that national self-determination could only be fulfilled on part of historic Palestine—and that it would be attainable by negotiating with, rather than defeating, Israel.

This Palestinian vision of statehood, and its acceptance of the two-state solution, thus became the price of the Palestinian historical compromise with Israel: it was the only way for Palestinians to advocate for themselves at peace negotiations where UNSC Resolution 242 set the terms of any possible resolution to the conflict. A Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, i.e. on only 22 percent of Palestine, was considered better than no state because it promised political independence and would allow a means for the return of refugees, even if it could not restore justice to the Palestinians for the Nakba. Above all, it promised citizenship rights. In other words, the Palestinian state project affirmed the Palestinian “right to have rights,” which, as Hannah Arendt explained, is the rationale for, and responsibility of, any claim for statehood.

For the PLO leadership, the Oslo peace process in 1993 provided an opportunity to territorialize these dreams of Palestinian statehood. With the signing of the Declaration of Principles in 1993 and Interim Agreement on the West Bank and Gaza Strip in 1995, the PLO acquiesced to a conflict resolution approach intrinsically tied to territorial partition as a paradigm for achieving a minimum of Palestinian rights. It also accepted Israel’s insistence that the starting point of the conflict was the 1967 war, not the 1948 war. Although fully aware that the Oslo process did not end the occupation or specify as its end goal the creation of a Palestinian state, the Palestinian leadership remained committed to proving that Palestinian statehood was both necessary and achievable.

Starting with Arafat’s return from Tunis to Gaza in 1994 and his role as the head of a democratically elected Palestinian National Authority (PNA) in January 1996, the Palestinian official narrative thus shifted from decolonization to state-building. The PNA focused on behaving as a state in order to be recognized as one, embarking on a wide variety of activities that ranged from setting up a new police force and various ministries to devising national development strategies and ritualizing presidential salutes while receiving foreign ambassadors. Such performances of statehood sought to abstract the reality of occupation, not so much in order to deny it but to refuse to be constrained by it. They were attempts, however limited, to affirm Palestinian agency and legitimate national existence despite Israel’s continuous obstructions.

The acceptance of the two-state solution became the price of the Palestinian compromise with Israel.

The PNA’s belief that national independence was attainable through state-building rather than revolutionary armed resistance was best exemplified by the Fayyad technocratic government in 2007. Set up in the aftermath of the international boycott of Hamas’s electoral victory in 2006 and the Fatah-Hamas debacle in June 2007, this government defined its mission as providing “the final push to statehood.” It worked on proving Palestinian institutional readiness for independent statehood, as advised by PNA’s new international sponsors, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

State-building thus became about law and order, not about national unity or democratic representation. It confined the meaning of self-determination to the establishment of a neoliberal state, as defined by Washington’s conception of good governance. Its mission was to foster “institution-building” and fiscal transparency in order to ensure the development of a vibrant private sector. It established a kind of statehood that was not sovereign but responsible for the management of Palestinian populations under its control and entitled to political independence in a distant and uncertain future.

Even more assiduously, since 2008 this state-building effort proved to be a site of governance and control—an effort by which the PNA shaped power relations over space and people, rather than a strategy that could effectively halt Israeli settlement construction or end the siege on Gaza. This control was visible at the macro level in the creation of a repressive police force and prison system in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and in the failure to create independent and transparent judiciary. It also was clear at the micro level in the way state-building efforts reshaped access to resources and power, whether in developing the infrastructure for a modern electricity grid and road system or defining the terms of public-private partnerships. Meanwhile, the PNA was unable to challenge the settler colonial reality its state project was embedded in, given that it remained responsible for safeguarding Israeli security. The failure of regional and international powers to exert pressure on Israel to retreat fully from the West Bank and Gaza—or even to adhere to the terms of the Oslo agreements—meant that the Palestinian state was going to be neither independent nor democratic.

State-building became about law and order, not about national unity or democratic representation.

Indeed, it is impossible to explain the persistence (and failure) of the Palestinian state project without considering the international investment in it. The Quartet on the Middle East—comprising the UN, European Union, United States, and Russia—has been the major advisor and funder of the Palestinian state project, delivering over $44 billion to the Palestinian territories since 1994. Apart from disbursing some of this money into humanitarian aid, the international community focused on improving the PNA’s institutional capability to prove Palestinian readiness for political independence, giving special attention to enhancing the PNA’s monopoly over the use of violence in the West Bank and Gaza.

The meaning of statehood has thus been restricted to the power of an internationally recognized authority to impose law and order—crowding out goals such as fostering democratic accountability or ensuring Palestinian unity, let alone adhering to international law or forcing Israel to withdraw from Palestinian land. And by prioritizing Israel’s security concerns in delineating the extent of Palestinian territorial and demographic jurisdiction, the international community has largely ignored the importance of territorial contiguity for the viability of any Palestinian state.

The cumulative effect of these developments of the past thirty years has been to transform the Palestinian state project from a vehicle for national liberation into an effort to dissolve the Palestine question altogether. Juridically, Oslo confined the Palestinian nation to the West Bank and Gaza Strip, compromising the unity of the Palestinian people and the political rights of Palestinian refugees abroad. It also undermined the national Palestinian political system with the creation of new territorially truncated political bodies: the PNA and the Palestinian Legislative Council effectively superseded the PLO and its Palestinian National Council, which had historically represented Palestinians both inside and outside the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The Palestinian project of national self-determination has thus been emptied of emancipatory potential. It was not in vain, however, for it fulfilled an important historical role, serving as the vehicle for affirming Palestinian political existence as a national group with a right to political independence. It helped win legitimacy for the Palestinian struggle of self-determination in the eyes of the international community, which has admitted the State of Palestine into multiple international institutions since 2011. But it proved to be insufficient for political and territorial liberation because it remained confined within a partition paradigm that did not stop, let alone undo, Israeli settler colonialism.

Israel’s latest war on Gaza has not only confirmed the reality of Israel’s effective sovereignty over Palestine—a reality that has been increasingly described as apartheid. It has also revealed the brutal dimensions of this condition. Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are subjected to carpet bombing and to the annihilation of their educational, health, and housing infrastructure while enduring displacement and famine. Those in the West Bank, meanwhile, continue to live in fragmented population reserves pervaded by Israeli checkpoints while facing mounting settler violence and military incursions; as of this writing, more than 500 have been killed, and thousands have been taken into Israeli custody, since October 8.

Decolonizing Israel is going to be central to any discussion of the one-state solution.

Israel’s latest war on the Palestinians clearly indicates that the conflict has entered a new phase, even if its settler colonial character has not changed. The premise upon which the conflict has been managed for the past thirty years has been shaken, as Israel can no longer rely on the claim that the conflict is confined to the land occupied in the 1967 war and that a resolution can be achieved through a peace process, or a partition paradigm, that does not end Israel’s occupation of Palestinian land. The more foundational question posed in 1948, if not before, has resurfaced and demands still an answer: Who has political rights in the land between the river and the sea, and how are these rights going to be exercised and protected? Can this land accommodate two national groups, and if so, under what political configuration?

Many Palestinian activists and academics have sought to address these questions long before the events of October 7. Over the past two decades, in particular, many have sought to redefine the meaning of political liberation in the wake of the maimed project of a Palestinian nation-state. This alternative discourse identifies settler colonialism, rather than occupation, as the impediment to political independence—and thus views decolonization, rather than partition, as the required path to peace.

One aspect of this work has entailed appeals to Palestinians’ inalienable rights. This rights-based approach gained prominence with the rise of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement and the 2004 opinion by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) declaring Israel’s separation wall to be illegal. This a

Some thoughts, observations, and rants about yesterday's raid that freed four Israeli hostages from Gaza’s Nuseirat camp, by Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib

Some thoughts, observations, and rants about yesterday's raid that freed four Israeli hostages from Gaza’s Nuseirat camp:


1. Right off the bat, it should go without saying at this point that we wouldn’t be here had it not been for Hamas’s criminality on October 7 and that these hostages should have never been taken or held this long. This entirely avoidable war was started by Hamas and the buck stops with them.


2. It’s been weird, strange, gross, revealing, and disappointing to see some “pro-Palestine” activists go into straight meltdown mode over the fact that Hamas no longer holds these hostages, NOT the death of numerous Palestinian civilians during the raid, but the idea that Hamas no longer has “Zionist prisoners” who have been consistently dismissed and dehumanized since October 7.


3. It’s been disgusting, upsetting, and, quite frankly, enraging to see the utter dehumanization of the Palestinian civilian losses and victims by some “pro-Israel” activists who have so little capacity for compassion and empathy that the hundreds who have been killed “are all terrorists” and that it’s somehow inconceivable for scores of uninvolved civilians to be killed by the massive firepower that the IDF deployed in Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah during the operation.


4. Numerous Palestinians in Gaza, on social media in Arabic, are fuming over the fact that Hamas placed hostages in dense civilian areas, endangering their lives and exposing them to the wrath of Israel’s ferocious war machines. “Where are the vaunted tunnels that you built using our resources and safety?” yelled a furious man in Nuseirat.


5. What Hamas has and continues to do through its use of civilian homes, areas, and infrastructure bolsters the “there are no innocent civilians in Gaza” propagandists who are eager to disregard the safety and proportionality principles in pursuit of the destruction of Hamas. Instead of separating the terror group from Gaza’s civilians, Hamas, and its supporters and allies continue the horrendous narrative of “we are the people’s resistance army” that has a right to do whatever it wants regardless of the consequences.


6. On the one hand, Israel, like any other nation, would conduct an operation to free its citizens from captivity, and what happened yesterday isn’t surprising in that regard. On the other hand, the apparent disregard for “collateral damage” or Palestinian civilian casualties is inconsistent with the Just War Doctrine or principles of counterinsurgency. When the US raided Bin Laden’s compound, care was taken to separate his family and uninvolved civilians from the combatants; this is true when attacking hijacked airplanes, seized banks, or other targets with militants, hostages, and civilians.


7. Some of the testimonies and accounts that I’ve encountered have confirmed a disturbing trend: IDF soldiers were shooting/killing upon contact with any unknown subjects. In other words, there was little to no effort to discriminate targets based on their gender, proximity to the hostages’ locations, or their possession of firearms. Yes, Hamas had those hostages in peoples’ homes, Gazans who are connected to the Islamist group. However, Hamas’s operational security protocols likely ensured that most civilians in the immediate vicinity/proximity had no idea that hostages were being held there; this means there truly were innocent, uninvolved civilians near the hostages who, for no fault of their own, were eliminated by the IDF.


8. There’s absolutely no real and substantive evidence, beyond Aljazeera’s ridiculous innuendo, that the US humanitarian pier was used to bring in Israeli troops to stage the operation or that the pier facilitated the movement of vehicles. The IDF has the Netzarim Corridor that it could use to bring all sorts of equipment, decoys, and materials. The use of the flat area adjacent to the pier for the evacuation helicopter’s takeoff is not evidence that the pier itself was used for the operation. It goes without saying that the US and Israel have extensive intelligence cooperation (just like many Arab countries and Israel have), and I wouldn’t be surprised if some surveillance assets were part of the reconnaissance that preceded the operation.


9. Those who did not call on Hamas to release the hostages; who dehumanized Israeli hostages and captives, calling them “prisoners of war” and thinking that they’re legitimate spoils of war; those who celebrated October 7 as resistance and cheered on Hamas; those who championed the armed resistance narrative: you own part of this! This is partly on you! Yes, your ignorance, arrogance, short-sidedness, inhumanity, and grift got us here. Imagine if the entirety of the pro-Palestine movement, in unison, called for the release of Israeli hostages, or at the very least, the women, children, elderly, and the dead. Imagine if Hamas faced this popular/public/moral pressure and realized that its actions are profoundly unpopular and despised and that it had to concede to protect its people and not lose the narrative. But no, you went along with the disaster, and now you’re upset that your beloved terror group is continuing to get the Palestinians annihilated.


10. Those who did not push for a ceasefire/hostage deal, who dehumanized the people of Gaza, and who are blinded by rage, hate, and a desire for revenge; those who do not view the Palestinians as people worthy of life or basic liberty and are unwilling to register Israel’s role in the unfolding catastrophe, including by supporting Hamas for years and letting its rule fester: you own this and are part of this catastrophe! And not only that, but you are despicably and inhumanly mocking hundreds of deaths and saying they’re all Hamas, they’re all this or that, without the slightest ability to have empathy. I’m not saying don’t rejoice in the freeing of the hostages, but to completely dismiss the horrific and unbelievably high cost involved in liberating them reeks of prejudice, inhumanity, and heartlessness.


I really am glad that Noa Argamani can see her dying mother, Liora, one last time. I hope for the immediate and expedient release of all Israeli hostages. But at what cost? Palestinian lives matter too – they really do.


Monday, June 3, 2024

Election 2024: If Trump Wins, His Deficits Are Going to Be Yuge — Bloomberg Opinion. By Matthew Yglesias

Read time: 4 minutes

His first term was marked by tax cuts and increased spending, but current economic conditions make that formula far more dangerous.

June 2, 2024 at 12:00 PM UTC

Donald Trump’s lead over Joe Biden can largely be explained by voter unhappiness with the economy — specifically, concerns over high interest rates and inflation. Both are likely to get much worse if Trump becomes president.


House Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed last week that he is working on a budget reconciliation bill that would include — but not be limited to — a full extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, whose tax cuts are set to expire in 2025. The Joint Committee on Taxation reported last week that the cost of extending those cuts is now 50% higher, in nominal dollar terms, than it originally estimated. Meanwhile, over in the Senate, Republican Roger Wicker and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are working on a plan to hike defense spending to 5% of GDP.


And yet the reality is that these are the stated goals of the people who will control the agenda next year if Republicans win in November.


Granted, there has been a lot going on. But the tenor of the campaign continues to be oddly detached from this question of how the opposition party intends to govern. The general sense among some of those unhappy with Biden is that things haven’t gone as well as hoped over the past four years, so why not elect Trump to bring us back to the America of, say, late 2019.


But however you apportion the blame for what happened over the next few years — just to jog your memory, events included a major global pandemic, trillions in economic relief spending, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Iranian-backed militias disrupting Red Sea shipping, over and above anything that Biden did — Trump is not a magician, and he can’t turn back the clock. When Biden took over as president in 2021, he had to deal with the situation he was left by his predecessor. If Trump wins, he will have to do the same.


In 2017, he took over an economy that, despite years of steady growth under Barack Obama, remained somewhat depressed. Prime-age labor force participation was well below its peak, interest rates were near zero and had been for a long time, and inflation was quiescent. Trump took advantage of that opportunity to unleash an agenda of macroeconomic populism — tax cuts and increased military spending and increased domestic spending, with unpopular entitlement reform off the table. Inflation and interest rates did rise in response, but only a little and nobody minded much at the time, because the economy still had plenty of slack.


None of these conditions prevails today. Love Biden or hate him, the unemployment rate is very low, the employment-population ratio is fully recovered, and immigration has boosted the size of the labor force above pre-pandemic estimates. Adding more stimulus will be steeply inflationary unless offset by dramatic cuts elsewhere in federal spending.


Will that happen? It’s certainly possible. A Republican reconciliation bill would seek to repeal all or most of the clean-energy spending from the Inflation Reduction Act. At the same time, Republicans are also committed to repealing the IRA’s spending on tax enforcement and its provisions on prescription drug pricing, both of which will make the deficit higher. The law was deliberately constructed to slightly reduce both the deficit and inflation, so it’s hard to balance the books by repealing it.


Trump has sworn off cuts to Medicare and Social Security, the federal government’s two largest programs. So he’s left with Medicaid, which provides health care to the poor and long-term care for the elderly and disabled. Last time Trump was in office, his administration sought large cuts to Medicaid as part of Affordable Care Act repeal. This time around, Republicans are being remarkably cagey. In an interview with Semafor, Johnson said that plans for legislation were fluid but that there’s “a lot of innovation and change that is desperately needed” in health care.


It’s hard to disagree with a nonspecific call for “innovation and change.” It’s also hard to see it as an adequate answer for how Republicans are planning to govern the country.


To be fair, there are no feel-good answers to the question of how to address the budget deficit amid rising international tensions and an aging population. But a gigantic tax cut is not going to help, and pairing it with an aggressive effort to deport a large share of the workforce while cutting off an ongoing flow of workers is only going to exacerbate the basic problems with MAGA-nomics.


If Republicans have an actual plan to make this math work with offsetting cuts elsewhere, people deserve to know what it is. And if, as seems more likely, they plan to repeat the formula from Trump’s first term of just putting it all on the national credit card, voters deserve to know that, too, and ought to think about its implications.


Lax fiscal policy worked just fine for Trump during his previous stint in office. But circumstances have changed, and re-running that play — as he is currently promising to do — risks genuine fiscal catastrophe.


This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.